You are mentoring a promising beginner...

[TurfRuler]

While mentoring, how would you divide the winnings?

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The skipping races like passing in poker analog doesn't work. In horse racing once an edge is established then it becomes the more one plays the more one makes. It's simple math. If my edge is 10% then if I bet 100 races I score 110, if I bet 1000 races then I score 1100. I believe passing is good for those learning the game, but not for those with an edge.

A betting model has two fundamental metrics:

(1) Its betting frequency ( how often it has a betting opinion)

(2) The expectation for each bet

The final PNL is a function of both. Depending on (2) a model that always an opinion can show a larger profit than one that bets very sparingly. The opposite could also be true.

We can use any casino game as an example. Take for example baccarat, where the house always maintains a slim but constant advantage over the player while imposing maximum bet sizing. Under this conditions your statement applies the most. The more 'action' the casino receives into this proposition the more sure and largest its winnings will be be.

If you believe you can do the same as a horse player, then this is the way to go. I cannot prove it analytically but I am convinced that something like this is impossible to happen betting horses (especially into mutual pools).

Successful horse betting is a product of non self weighted events rather than self weighted.

Your opinion will be more profitable in smaller subsets of the offered races and there will be groups of races that you will not be able to show a profit at all.

The risk reward ratio is not the same for the complete universe of races and it is your task as a bettor to find the most valuable situations and bet them aggressively while completely ignore those who do not offer clear signs of profitability.

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Let me clarify. By 100 turning into 110, I was assuming one betting unit per race. A unit can consist of several bets. The idea was a 10% gain.

Although useful for simulations and theoretical analysis, betting a unit a race is a self weighting approach limiting your ability to create situations for big scores. Chances are that you will do much better if you bet your whole budget to a couple of races out of a full card rather than trying to spread to all of them. The skill needed is to isolate these races and ignore the others. More than this you have to give yourself the opportunity to get lucky by exposing your bets to a big risk. If not it is impossible to even have a big day. A conservative approach where you are focusing in small time grinding while keeping your risk low, simply does not work in horse racing.


You can make hundreds of thousand of bets per year and just a single two dollar bet out of them might convert you from a looser to a life time winner assuming you are taking enough risk.

The proper balance of tightness and aggression is an absolute necessary component of a winning strategy.

Take for example this posting:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=99411

where someone claims that using Prime Power allowed him to have a high win percentage and ROI founding only 22 plays during a period of months, all of them been favorites.

This strategy is as weak as it can go. Of course it is beating a loosing one but it is not much different than just no betting at all. This is an example of extreme tightness and extreme passiveness having very little value even if in theory it can show a tiny profit (so tiny that even the cost of buying the DRF has to be considered!)

The other extreme would have been someone betting all races, always selecting huge long shots and betting large amounts...

The ultimate approach should be somewhere in between....

[Tom]

If you do not skip races with no value, you will lose. You may have a 10% edge, but not over all races.

IMHO.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Tom

If you do not skip races with no value, you will lose. You may have a 10% edge, but not over all races.

IMHO.

That is my feeling also. I don't know if Al means he bets every race on a card and has a 10% edge, or if he means that, of the races he plays he has a 10% edge. If the former is true, then a little analysis of his, hopefully thorough record keeping, will allow him to pass races where he has a negative expection (less than 0% edge).

If he, indeed, bets every race, on every card, and has an edge of 10%, then he is simply the best player I have ever seen, or heard of, but I seriously doubt that is true. But, if it is true, he is truly the King of pony players and undoubtedly quite wealthy, from race betting, by now.

[Dave Schwartz]

If you do not skip races with no value, you will lose. You may have a 10% edge, but not over all races.

I am of the opinion that profit can be derived from almost all races. It is the rare race where the public gets the planets lined up perfectly.

However, given a significant sample of races actually wagered, it is inevitable, that eventually patterns will emerge showing high spots and low spots.

The problem is that you need to put in a couple of thousand wagers usually to see these patterns emerge. Most people will not be able to play that many races and still be close enough to even to finish accumulating the necessary sample.

That is when they quit.

Of course, they could also play without money for a couple of thousand races - but who is going to do that?

I realize that the math guys - of which I am not really one -would say that you just test against the database.

As one who has done that for eons I can tell you that it is ALWAYS different when you go live.


Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I am of the opinion that profit can be derived from almost all races. It is the rare race where the public gets the planets lined up perfectly.

However, given a significant sample of races actually wagered, it is inevitable, that eventually patterns will emerge showing high spots and low spots.

The problem is that you need to put in a couple of thousand wagers usually to see these patterns emerge. Most people will not be able to play that many races and still be close enough to even to finish accumulating the necessary sample.

That is when they quit.

Of course, they could also play without money for a couple of thousand races - but who is going to do that?

I realize that the math guys - of which I am not really one -would say that you just test against the database.

As one who has done that for eons I can tell you that it is ALWAYS different when you go live.


Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Agree, there is value to be had in all races, however, one's ability to find that value, in every race, probably ain't gonna happen. Maybe Al has found the goose that laid the golden egg?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The skipping races like passing in poker analog doesn't work. In horse racing once an edge is established then it becomes the more one plays the more one makes. It's simple math. If my edge is 10% then if I bet 100 races I score 110, if I bet 1000 races then I score 1100. I believe passing is good for those learning the game, but not for those with an edge.

I look at rhetoric like this the same way I look at the rhetoric of the Republican Party. The logic appears flawless; I am just never satisfied when I see it put to actual practice.

A hardworking, hi-tech handicapper who finds a worthwhile bet in every race can easily end up wagering on 15,000 races a year. If he can maintain a 10% ROI, then his financial worries are over in short order...and he doesn't need much money to start with.

A $1,500 initial bankroll -- with a $10 wagering unit -- would be transformed into a $16,500 bankroll after only one year's play.

The second year...our hero can look forward to a profit of $165,000 -- while making bets in the $100 range. And if he should take his bets up to the $200 range during the third year...then we are talking about what the late Dick Mitchell liked to call..."Rolls Royce wages."

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I look at rhetoric like this the same way I look at the rhetoric of the Republican Party. The logic appears flawless; I am just never satisfied when I see it put to actual practice.

A hardworking, hi-tech handicapper who finds a worthwhile bet in every race can easily end up wagering on 15,000 races a year. If he can maintain a 10% ROI, then his financial worries are over in short order...and he doesn't need much money to start with.

A $1,500 initial bankroll -- with a $10 wagering unit -- would be transformed into a $16,500 bankroll after only one year's play.

The second year...our hero can look forward to a profit of $165,000 -- while making bets in the $100 range. And if he should take his bets up to the $200 range during the third year...then we are talking about what the late Dick Mitchell liked to call..."Rolls Royce wages."

Well said!!

[pktruckdriver]

The Mentoree's Commandments



1. It’s your job, not your mentor’s job.
2. Think commitment, not lip service.
3. Show up for the relationship.
4. Give back and get more.
5. Keep expectations realistic.
6. It’s risky, but it’s healthy.
7. Be yourself; we already have everybody else.
8. Don’t be afraid of your mentor’s silence.
9. Pay it forward.


I am ready to be a Mentoree, who is up to thee challenge, many have tried and a few have done well and made me better, but I need to find a true Mentor and then commit completely to what ever it is I am being taught, whether it is starting and running a Horse Hauling Business, becoming a professional horse player (gambler/investor), clocker, assistant trainer, or even a Hot Walker, or starting a horse rescue operation. All things could be an area where a true Mentor would be helpful, and I am ready to leap into any of those scenarios.

I currently have a retired Marine Gunny helping me with my weight loss and with his help I am succeeding beyond what I have been able to do by myself, so I know his help is the reason for my current success, at least 45lbs lost so far, and I wish to drop another 100lbs minimum, but with the help from my mentor, I will lost undoubtly BE ABLE TO DO IT!!

WAITING PATIENTLY

[Dave Schwartz]

PK,

I am truly amazed and thrilled at your progress as a human being, my friend.


Make that three


Dave

[jdhanover]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

PK,

I am truly amazed and thrilled at your progress as a human being, my friend.


Make that three


Dave

Agree 100% Keep up the GREAT work Patrick!

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

PK,

I am truly amazed and thrilled at your progress as a human being, my friend.


Make that three


Dave

Thank you Dave

You my friend had a part in this too, and for that I thank you. I have been probably the toughest customer you had, and you opened up your home and gave me all the assistance one person needed to become winner and I just could not put it all together, WHY, this is still a question I am curently dealing with and will definetly overcome, SO, I can become the winner I so truly desire to become. I was very confrontational, blaming others for what has now been diagnosed as a learning disability on my part, one that I refused to acknowledge , but in doing so now, life has become so much more enjoyable for me and those around me. Thank you Dave for being able to forgive the things I have done, not many would.

Thanks again Dave
Patrick

[Aner]

It has been my experience that it is best to pass races that have fewer than 8 entries. When I do this, my chalk play has been profitable last year.

For example, considering only the morning line favorite and using a highly selected criterion (around 10% of races are playable):

Races with less than 8 entries: hit rate = 48%; loss= 22%
Races with more than 8 entries: hit rate = 47%; profit = 6%

Of course, even though this is about a year's worth of data, the sample size is too small to really count. However, I do think the trend is there.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Tom

If you do not skip races with no value, you will lose. You may have a 10% edge, but not over all races.

IMHO.

I don't know what my edge is. I only know that I have one. Picked 10% for conversation. Just starting to work on record keeping.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by raybo

Agree, there is value to be had in all races, however, one's ability to find that value, in every race, probably ain't gonna happen. Maybe Al has found the goose that laid the golden egg?

No, I haven't found the goose that lays the golden eggs.