and who says u shouldn't know what the odds will be in advance

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Trifecta Mike....Precious.

No the other guy who calculated the frontal areas of horses and used wind speeds from airports 5 miles away.
eta: Cratos!

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by coachv30

I do have to admit that the examples he has given in this post have been very accurate. I was gonna be a basher at first until I decided to follow it a bit. The horses that he chooses to use are not necessarily his selections. Instead, they are meant to give you a better gauge on where YOUR selection(s) will end up when the race goes off.

If he is telling you that the 2 and the 4, despite being 4-1 and 5-1 respectively on the ML,should be the top two choices in the end (9/5 and 2/1), then maybe that 5 horse (3-1) ML that you love may indeed be worth the WIN wager because you may see him go off at 5-1 or 6-1 after the bell.

The horses that he posts are in a sense "gauge horses" for you to assess YOUR selections with.

coach

dead on

well put

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by coachv30

The odds line part is how it is different. There are players who just can't develop an accurate oddsline. If his methods help these players to get an accurate assessment on where their selection will fall, doesn't it hold a little water?

In a sense, he is developing and sharing his odds line. If it is superior to yours (not meaning "yours" in particular), isn't it worth something?

again

dead on

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

No the other guy who calculated the frontal areas of horses and used wind speeds from airports 5 miles away.
eta: Cratos!

have to admit elh

had me laughing in intervals all day long
when i kept remembering this

truly classic

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

Agree 100%...but why not just come out and say that instead of being rude and dismissive (the OP)? I guess the only difference might be the OP is claiming to predict final odds, NOT strictly just an oddsline? If so there would have been much better and more polite ways to convey that.

Shades of ribjig and that self-proclaimed ultra-genius whose name I can't recall who flamed out a while back.

I see how u and many others can see it that way.
but the only reason this happens is because i feel
that people at times jump on this thread ,read the last few
comments and offer an opinion on something they have completely
misunderstood. eg post 140 when (nitro) stepped in and offered his
opinion calling it subjective nonsense without really having a clear understanding of what was being offered . So this sets me off and i react




experienced posters on this board have already made me the enemy
calling me everything

from

unintelligent
your product is subjective nonsense
"we have seen clowns like this in the past "
" you are offering nothing of value "
"you don't know how far behind you really are "
" Ya 40,000 feet above , avatar "
" took 8 years to develop product "

and so on

without a shred of evidence on my abilities as a handicapper
or player to back it up

but all the lines i put up tor try and offer that evidence
they claim is childsplay and anyone can do it.
but i can assure u this is not the case

so i have always stood for the truth

this is why i get so aggrevated with the linesmakers as
they give u reasons that don't make sense on why horses were
placed so high or low on the line .

mountainmann once said "personalized odds-makers can go as low as they see fit on obvious chalks and strong contenders. "

true but i am not asking u to do that,
i am saying place the odds within the denominations that
you the (linesmakers) set them at


so if ur favourite is 5-2 ml then this horse should be the favourite
and so on and so on

not where an 8-1 ml ( seventh choice )becomes the favourite
at post time regardless of what his odds are

thats it

mm

[mmmjjjj]

So this is what the linesmaker has it at ( in that order)

Gulf race 6

Lucky runs north 2-1
At the pearly gates 5-2
Jungle warrior 6-1
Big spender 6-1
Logsdon 8-1

yes i know the scratching of the #4 horse doesn't make these above that high on the line . more to my favour drop the odds some on all the contenders

So here is how I’m looking at it
If Im the oddsmaker

Jungle warrior 3-2--
Big spender. 2-1
At the pearly gates 5-2
Lucky runs north 5-1
Logdson 8-1


jungle warrior ---- so the layoff /running style/and different track/drops are concerns
but the works appear good and sid has done done this before
so unless your a pro (and you know what to do !!!) the public money has to come for him regardless

big spender --- if u take out the turf races -- he belongs here as the second choice
( that is how the public will see it )
big speed , drawn right and spaced right

at the pearly gates --- although the connections are tight he is suppose to be the third fav
if u are looking at it from a birds eye view

lucky runs north ---- is terribly placed as the ml choice here as there is too much
unknowns surrounding him. the big win is not enough to overcome
what the line should be

logdson ---- training particularly well and has the right speed and style to be effective but the numbers
and layoff and conflicting running styles off of these circumstances will make the public jump off
making him the last of the bunch here

so however u see it is up to you
but as a linesmaker you have to project what the public will be doing
and this is what i see happening so that is why the projections
are set this way

if im wrong wont be the first time but
this is a more realistic interpertation
my opinion
mm

[mmmjjjj]

My odds
(2 take horses )
Figure out what to do ??

My odds
Gulfstream

Race 6– reiterate—5-2
Race 10– preacher marsee— 7-2

[mmmjjjj]

oaklawn race 7

a poster on this forum recently said that the oaklawn linesmaker is sharp
and he is on his game

so why this i ask

#6 incorrigible -- 20-1 -- so he is saying he has a 3.5 percent chance of winning (take and all) ok lets knock it down to 15-1 since the #4 scratched

so scan the pps

how could this possibly be , look at the contenders beside above and below

what do u see ???

i see 6-1 max am i just way off here??

there is the coupling of diodoro and a few known connections

still

wtf ????

[mmmjjjj]

u didn't really think these ml prices were available today

tampa bay

race 3--- aruba ---looks like he is going chalk here --got him 9-5
race 6-- american driven--- should be in top 2 here---got him 3-1 (could be wrong ) sometimes public doesn't see these but can't see it

we will see what the public does

gl

[mmmjjjj]

Gulf

Race10– we miss Susie —u think he should have been placed
This high—- got him 3-1

Race12– the great kahuna— got him 7-1– but public might think
Otherwise

[mmmjjjj]

Fairgrounds
Race 12

Wells bayou — got him—5-1
Anybody got him anywhere close to ml??

[mmmjjjj]

We will try something different tonight

So this is how the line sits

Turfway race 7

11–9-2—
8—5-1
1–5-1

So there’s the top 3 from the track oddsmaker . So should they be. Let’s have a closer 👀

Now here’s what the top 3 should be in my opinion!!!!
I am not saying the toteboard
Will look this way ///but it might.
As these are my real lines tonight!!!!

2—9-2
9—9-2
3—5-1

This was defiantly a tough line to make( so I’ll cut him some slack) and seeing it from the public view was tough.

But. The oddsmakers top 3 lines should be higher no doubt as there are too many question
Marks surrounding his top 3
Will they be( we will see)

And will mine drop from their prospective ml odds and come
Closer to my approximations
They should !! But like I said this one I admit was complicated as even
The #10 should draw 11 percent of the take


So where does that leave us
Trust in my lines and work around those odds

As these three are the right 3
Today even if they don’t run

Mm
Gl

[redlandb]

So, since you think you have the "secret sauce" 24 hours early, let's see what you got for Sunday.

I'm a food scientist, so nothing is really a secret.

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by redlandb

So, since you think you have the "secret sauce" 24 hours early, let's see what you got for Sunday.

I'm a food scientist, so nothing is really a secret.

Ur much more than a food scientist
And who said anything about having
A secret??

[mmmjjjj]

So far




Gulf

What the approx Public lines should be today

Race 3—-noble hope—2-1- might go chalk

Race 6— omnia—-5-2

Race 9—queens jewel—9/5
( how is he not listed fav)