Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 09-08-2018, 06:16 PM   #1
jasperson
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Fort Worth,Texas
Posts: 606
Whales

Why do the Whales bet win,place and knock down the odds? Is it because the exotics don't offer winning propositions? I think that with their expertise the exotics would offer better value.
jasperson is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-09-2018, 12:29 PM   #2
MadVindication
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
Cuts the chances of winning I suppose. Between even money and 2-1 is great if you're throwing down high figures.

And I suspect some of them are sadistic assholes who don't want people with shallower pockets to make any scratch. On a conspiratorial reach: maybe they are sometimes paid to hammer down the odds and decrease pay outs.
MadVindication is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-09-2018, 12:48 PM   #3
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,877
Quote:
And I suspect some of them are sadistic assholes who don't want people with shallower pockets to make any scratch. On a conspiratorial reach: maybe they are sometimes paid to hammer down the odds and decrease pay outs.
Nobody is being sadistic or assholish. It is simply business. They're making profit.

Would you say that Walmart is run by a bunch of assholes who are just taking advantage of people by making profit off the consumer?

(Note that I am not a big fan of Walmart and how they pay their employees, but I still shop there because it provides me with the best pricing I can get.)


Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperson View Post
Why do the Whales bet win,place and knock down the odds? Is it because the exotics don't offer winning propositions? I think that with their expertise the exotics would offer better value.
They also play exotics. In fact, they play ALL the pools.

And you are correct, the exotics DO offer more value, but probably not for the reason you think.

The reason they offer more value is because the takeout is higher.

WHAT?

I said that the value is higher for them because the takeout is higher and, therefore, they get a higher rebate because the rebate deal is also usually tied to the takeout.


The typical whale deal with an ADW is that their rebate is tied directly to whatever the ADW is making as their commission on a bet.

It works like this:
Assume 18% takeout. Let's follow that 18%.
(Note that these numbers are not likely accurate in 2018. I admit to being a bit out of the loop these days.)

1. Of that the track keeps 2%, leaving 16%.
2. Perhaps the horsemen take 1%, leaving 15%.
3. The signal fees and tote is another 3.5%, leaving 11.5%.
4. That 11.5% is passed on to the ADW as commission.

Here's where things get interesting. This is where the ADW net is split between the ADW and the bettor. (Note that their could be an agent who also gets a small commission for bringing the customer to the ADW.)

Let's say that you are a $1,000 per month player.
(Note that I am making these numbers up. I've got no idea what your ADW deal might be.)

5. The ADW is going to keep the 1st 8%. That means you get to keep whatever the ADW commission - 8% is. At this track that means 3.5%.

If the net to the ADW was only 10%, you'd be getting a 2% rebate.

If the ADW commission rate was 7% then you'd get 0% for a rebate.


Now, let's change the scenario to a whale betting $10m per month.
That 11.5% that goes to the ADW is split way differently.

5. The ADW keeps 0.5% and gives you the rest. Thus, at an 11.5% track, you are going to get an 11% rebate. At an 8% track, you are going to get a 7.5% rebate.


These are the BASIC mechanics of how it works.

BTW, do not expect the "retail stores," such as Twin Spires or Express Bet to work quite this way.


Finally, the extremely high volume players may be offered an even better deal. A flat sum is paid to the ADW for the year and the player gets ALL of the ADW commission.


Hope this helps with your understanding.

Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 09-09-2018 at 12:52 PM.
Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-09-2018, 06:28 PM   #4
Buckeye
Smarty Pants
 
Buckeye's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
Here's the story, there is no "winning proposition" bet for anybody UNLESS you win! I don't care how you do it. Bet allot or bet a little. Get a rebate or don't, it's all the same thing. This is a parimutuel game, so it follows you must do what?

You must win more money than you lose and forget about the whales, unless you happen to be one, which I doubt.
Buckeye is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-09-2018, 07:33 PM   #5
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,877
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye View Post
Here's the story, there is no "winning proposition" bet for anybody UNLESS you win! I don't care how you do it. Bet allot or bet a little. Get a rebate or don't, it's all the same thing. This is a parimutuel game, so it follows you must do what?

You must win more money than you lose and forget about the whales, unless you happen to be one, which I doubt.
So your belief is that the level of competition that you are up against doesn't matter?
Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-09-2018, 07:48 PM   #6
Buckeye
Smarty Pants
 
Buckeye's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
It is what it is Dave.

Not only that, it doesn't concern me in the slightest.

Free Markets have a way of correcting for this. If the Whales are beating everybody over the head, it will stop at some point.

What are they going to do?

They'll quit.

No more heads to beat in.
Buckeye is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-09-2018, 08:14 PM   #7
incoming
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 1,144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye View Post
It is what it is Dave.

Not only that, it doesn't concern me in the slightest.

Free Markets have a way of correcting for this. If the Whales are beating everybody over the head, it will stop at some point.

What are they going to do?

They'll quit.

No more heads to beat in.
Very insightful......it is exactly what happened to dog racing. Of course, state run lotteries and casinos played a very big part.
incoming is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-09-2018, 08:22 PM   #8
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,877
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye View Post
It is what it is Dave.

Not only that, it doesn't concern me in the slightest.

Free Markets have a way of correcting for this. If the Whales are beating everybody over the head, it will stop at some point.

What are they going to do?

They'll quit.

No more heads to beat in.
Competition doesn't matter. A naive position.

Good luck to you.
Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-09-2018, 08:34 PM   #9
Buckeye
Smarty Pants
 
Buckeye's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
I compete against everyone Dave, that's what I do.

I don't need anyone to "step in" and level the playing field.

It's not a fair fight for them.
Buckeye is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-09-2018, 10:12 PM   #10
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
"Just Win Baby!"
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-10-2018, 01:42 AM   #11
steveb
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 900
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperson View Post
Why do the Whales bet win,place and knock down the odds? Is it because the exotics don't offer winning propositions? I think that with their expertise the exotics would offer better value.

i dunno anything much about betting myself, but i do know that when i was doing stuff for entropy and others later on, their main action(according to what entropy told me) was quinellas.


i have spreadsheet of their betting(australia) and it was every meeting/every race/every pool type, but again quinellas was the major attraction to them.
but it would surely be fluid in that it would depend on what they perceive gives them the best returns on $ spent.


don't know, these days, but i don't think they are as active as they once were.


it's interesting in that most of the names i know, are now domiciled in malta. even those that were from opposing teams, all seem to be there.


panama papers throw up all their names too, and they are all linked.
i wonder what goes on in malta.
steveb is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-10-2018, 07:43 AM   #12
biggestal99
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye View Post
. This is a parimutuel game, so it follows you must do what?
well it might be for 98% of horse players in the United states, in the UK and Australia. Fixed odds betting takes most of the money.

if I was a PM player now and could not bet the exchange, I would switch to fixed odds sports betting. much better bang for the buck.

PM is a dinosaur. its only a matter of time before it becomes extinct.

Allan
biggestal99 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-10-2018, 07:50 AM   #13
biggestal99
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
Competition doesn't matter. A naive position.

Good luck to you.
Of course you should know your comp. for me its the very annoying Betfair BOTS on the exchange. They scoop up any ridiculous prices before I even see it. I get the crumbs. The BOTS get the loaf, I get the crumbs. But at least I bet with open eyes. I go to the price graph and many times I see what the BOTS have scooped up on horses I bet. they make LOTS of money.

Allan
biggestal99 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-10-2018, 02:08 PM   #14
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
Of course you should know your comp. for me its the very annoying Betfair BOTS on the exchange. They scoop up any ridiculous prices before I even see it. I get the crumbs. The BOTS get the loaf, I get the crumbs. But at least I bet with open eyes. I go to the price graph and many times I see what the BOTS have scooped up on horses I bet. they make LOTS of money.

Allan

If you want to spend the money you can buy a bot too, then you are back to a level playing field.
green80 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-10-2018, 02:13 PM   #15
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
well it might be for 98% of horse players in the United states, in the UK and Australia. Fixed odds betting takes most of the money.

if I was a PM player now and could not bet the exchange, I would switch to fixed odds sports betting. much better bang for the buck.

PM is a dinosaur. its only a matter of time before it becomes extinct.

Allan

The problem with fixed odds betting is that someone has to book the bets. These tracks aren't going to leave themselves open to a big hit when they get the odds wrong and some sharp lays down big bucks. You see morning line odds that are way off everyday, what would happen if they were fixed odds?
green80 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:57 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.