2020 US Presidential election odds

[pandy]

Some interesting polling stats comparing 2016 to now, for those of you who might be trying to handicap it.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/14...S1y30BuaFS8w_A

[biggestal99]

Betfair next president market

Biden 1.49
Trump 3.00

Odds are steady.

Allan

[davew]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Betfair next president market

Biden 1.49
Trump 3.00

Odds are steady.

Allan

what do those numbers mean?

[tucker6]

I feel like Biden is playing the political version of the NFL's prevent defense. Trying to run out the clock, not by going on offense but by being on defense. As we all know, prevent defense often prevents your own team from winning. Let's hope that rings true yet again.

Honestly, I have a hard time believing the polls when I see all the enthusiasm on the other side. As we all have seen, enthusiasm translates pretty well on election day.

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Cash advantage sometimes MEANS NOTHING....M. Bloomberg & T. Steyer proved THAT point excellently ALREADY....

The rejection by voters to Jeb Bush 4 years ago and to John Connelly 40 years ago --both with cash advantages over their rivals-- also proves your point that a huge cash advantage MEANS NOTHING.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Cash advantage sometimes MEANS NOTHING....M. Bloomberg & T. Steyer proved THAT point excellently ALREADY....

Give m,e a break. In the closing end of a campaign it means quite a lot. Biden can buy and BLANKET the advertising airways. Trump, short on dough, is trying to generate free advertisement in his rallies.

Unfortunately Trump's audience is the same old, same old who would vote for him no matter what..

He must sway some independents liked he did in '16.

[hcap]

How Money Affects Elections
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ed-love-story/

In 2012 and 2014, the average Senate campaign spent 43 percent of its budget on ads, he told me, and the average House campaign spent 33 percent. Presidential races spend an even bigger chunk of their budgets on advertising. In 2012, for instance, ads made up more than 70 percent of President Obama’s campaign expenses and 55 percent of Mitt Romney’s.
.................................................. ...................................

Obviously, not always, but which potion would you rather own?

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by hcap

Voter fraud is nonsense. As id your argument.

Biden outraised Trump 3-1 in August, erasing Trump’s cash advantage
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/202...mp-3-1-august/

n a matter of months, Democratic nominee Joe Biden erased President Donald Trump’s once-massive financial advantage that he’d been building up since the early days of his presidency.

Some Democratic strategists called Trump’s mountain of campaign cash “insurmountable.” But record-smashing fundraising by the Biden campaign — and free spending from the Trump camp — helped Democrats catch up and actually surpass the Republican reelection effort.

Biden’s campaign raised $210 million in August, more than tripling the Trump campaign’s $62 million haul, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Biden banked $80 million while Trump only saved $8 million, allowing Biden to report more cash on hand for the first time this cycle.

My comments were not presented as a definitive, but instead a reasonable possibility.

What is nonsense is someone refusing to understand that voter fraud is real, and could have a significant impact on the upcoming election. Seems like we read about it more and more with each passing day.

And to the possibility that Biden is raising more than Trump, it certainly would not be a stretch to believe that those who are corrupt and wealthy would want to continue in the positions of wealth, power, and control. Trump and his America first policies is surely an existential threat to their current positions in life.

I guess when Trump wins we will be able to say that his campaign efforts (and finances) were on time and under budget.

[snappit]

Originally Posted by davew

what do those numbers mean?

It's decimal odds used on Betfair. You take away 1 to show your profit.

If you bet $1 at 1.49 you will get back $1.49 including stake, a profit of 49c it therefore equates to approx 1/2 in fractional odds.

If you bet $1 at 3.00 you get back $3, a profit of $2 therefore 2/1 in fractional odds.

On the popular vote market Biden is 1.12 approx 1/8. Trump is 7.6 13/2.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Track Collector

My comments were not presented as a definitive, but instead a reasonable possibility.

What is nonsense is someone refusing to understand that voter fraud is real, and could have a significant impact on the upcoming election. Seems like we read about it more and more with each passing day.

And to the possibility that Biden is raising more than Trump, it certainly would not be a stretch to believe that those who are corrupt and wealthy would want to continue in the positions of wealth, power, and control. Trump and his America first policies is surely an existential threat to their current positions in life.

I guess when Trump wins we will be able to say that his campaign efforts (and finances) were on time and under budget.

Christopher Wray and many other expertts say Trump's "voter fraud" hypotheses is non-existent

There are dozens of threads on this board about voter fraud. I do not buy any of them, nor Trump's paranoia nor yours.

We were discussing whether Donald is losing the senior vote, and I was asked for evidence. It is way more reasonable his campaign is spending hard to come by funds just getting them back, then spending such large funds to guard against seniors engaging in voter fraud when voting.

I am not buying your feat of mental gymnastics any time soon, and certainly not today.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

The guy has been frequenting racing forums for years.
Mostly in search of free contests.
Seldom writes anything that can be understood.

Could be worse, he could just show up and post mindless memes over and over and never write anything of any substance.

Maybe he just writes above your level.

[davew]

Originally Posted by snappit

It's decimal odds used on Betfair. You take away 1 to show your profit.

If you bet $1 at 1.49 you will get back $1.49 including stake, a profit of 49c it therefore equates to approx 1/2 in fractional odds.

If you bet $1 at 3.00 you get back $3, a profit of $2 therefore 2/1 in fractional odds.

On the popular vote market Biden is 1.12 approx 1/8. Trump is 7.6 13/2.

bet $200 long on Biden get back $298
bet $100 long on Trump get back $300

where is the vig? how does Betfair make money?


does someone need to short at the other side to 'match' your bet?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by davew

bet $200 long on Biden get back $298
bet $100 long on Trump get back $300

where is the vig? how does Betfair make money?


does someone need to short at the other side to 'match' your bet?

the winning bet pays a percentage to the house..

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by davew

bet $200 long on Biden get back $298
bet $100 long on Trump get back $300

where is the vig? how does Betfair make money?


does someone need to short at the other side to 'match' your bet?

One might not make it to the election or the Green party could win.

[hcap]

Generally, greater turnout favor democrats.
Specifically this time as well

Democratic enthusiasm propels early voting
https://www.newstimes.com/news/artic...g-15648455.php

...The picture is so stark that election officials across the country are reporting record early turnout, much of it in person, meaning that more results could be available on election night than previously thought.

Much of the early voting appears to be driven by heightened enthusiasm among Democrats. Of the roughly 3.5 million voters who have cast ballots in six states that provide partisan breakdowns, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 2 to 1, according to a Washington Post analysis of data in Florida, Kentucky, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Pennsylvania