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09-20-2020, 09:56 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
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Quote:
If the only information you’re using is past performance data then I would agree that your current (pre-race) information is certainly limited.
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There are many people working just as hard as me, teams of people working as hard as me that also have advanced mathematics backgrounds and computer models, insiders with access to information on a horse's condition or ability that I don't have etc..
When the odds were more heavily influenced by casual fans at OTB there were more overlays than there are now. Now everyone has good information and many people generously share information and insights on social media. So even with the same track take, the game got tougher.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 09-20-2020 at 10:01 AM.
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09-20-2020, 02:03 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,506
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonDropKid
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It's a shame Drazin isn't calling the shots at a national level. He's the best executive I've ever seen when it comes to trying to improve the actual betting game for horseplayers. NJ fans should be thankful.
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09-20-2020, 11:24 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
There are many people working just as hard as me, teams of people working as hard as me that also have advanced mathematics backgrounds and computer models, insiders with access to information on a horse's condition or ability that I don't have etc..
When the odds were more heavily influenced by casual fans at OTB there were more overlays than there are now. Now everyone has good information and many people generously share information and insights on social media. So even with the same track take, the game got tougher.
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I’m not going to try and dissuade anyone from working hard toward reaching reasonable profit making goals. My only comment would revolve around the methodology used to achieve those goals. What I’ve personally come to realize is that an exact science like mathematics can’t be expected to allow an objective analysis of a continually changing game that involves the diverse performances of living flesh and blood animals. Animals who’s mental and physical well being at any given time can be affected by so many things that just can’t be quantified or computed.
Then of course, these same animals have to compete against one another in a variety of race conditions whose outcome can become difficult to predict on a consistent basis with limited resources. These speculations become even more complex when considering the unknown intentions of those who control every aspect of these race horse’s competitive lives.
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09-21-2020, 04:32 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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I sent the following email to Smarkets.
Dear Smarkets,
New Jersey is looking for a new partner to manage its exchange. Betfair is dumping me and others. Please, please, please help me and others who trade faithfully with the exchange. Give jersey people an option. Please. I despise betting parimutually. Please I am begging you. Please.
Allan
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09-21-2020, 04:47 PM
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#21
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,619
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
I sent the following email to Smarkets.
Dear Smarkets,
New Jersey is looking for a new partner to manage its exchange. Betfair is dumping me and others. Please, please, please help me and others who trade faithfully with the exchange. Give jersey people an option. Please. I despise betting parimutually. Please I am begging you. Please.
Allan
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Genius!
__________________
WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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09-21-2020, 05:20 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,817
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
I sent the following email to Smarkets.
Dear Smarkets,
New Jersey is looking for a new partner to manage its exchange. Betfair is dumping me and others. Please, please, please help me and others who trade faithfully with the exchange. Give jersey people an option. Please. I despise betting parimutually. Please I am begging you. Please.
Allan
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I sent a very similar note to a girl I wanted to, um, date back in 8th grade. Except mine had more "pleases". Went about as well as yours probably will.
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09-21-2020, 05:58 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 242
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
I sent the following email to Smarkets.
Dear Smarkets,
New Jersey is looking for a new partner to manage its exchange. Betfair is dumping me and others. Please, please, please help me and others who trade faithfully with the exchange. Give jersey people an option. Please. I despise betting parimutually. Please I am begging you. Please.
Allan
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Don't go writing to the providers, write to the horseman and ask them why they insist the funding model that worked in 1970 works now? ask them why they think 12% of nothing is better then 5-6% of something?
They're the ones who've made the model not feasible in the USA by outright refusing to play along in some cases or asking for a ransom commission rate.
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09-22-2020, 09:42 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
I sent a very similar note to a girl I wanted to, um, date back in 8th grade. Except mine had more "pleases". Went about as well as yours probably will.
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Lol. Can’t say that I didn’t try. I really do despise PM and it’s usury takeout.
I paid betfair a shitload of money over the past years and this is how I am repaid.
Allan
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