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Old 09-20-2020, 09:56 AM   #16
classhandicapper
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If the only information you’re using is past performance data then I would agree that your current (pre-race) information is certainly limited.
There are many people working just as hard as me, teams of people working as hard as me that also have advanced mathematics backgrounds and computer models, insiders with access to information on a horse's condition or ability that I don't have etc..

When the odds were more heavily influenced by casual fans at OTB there were more overlays than there are now. Now everyone has good information and many people generously share information and insights on social media. So even with the same track take, the game got tougher.
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Old 09-20-2020, 11:59 AM   #17
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Looks like Monmouth is looking for another partner to replace Betfair for exchange wagering.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...in-new-jersey/
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Old 09-20-2020, 02:03 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by LemonDropKid View Post
Looks like Monmouth is looking for another partner to replace Betfair for exchange wagering.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...in-new-jersey/
It's a shame Drazin isn't calling the shots at a national level. He's the best executive I've ever seen when it comes to trying to improve the actual betting game for horseplayers. NJ fans should be thankful.
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Old 09-20-2020, 11:24 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
There are many people working just as hard as me, teams of people working as hard as me that also have advanced mathematics backgrounds and computer models, insiders with access to information on a horse's condition or ability that I don't have etc..

When the odds were more heavily influenced by casual fans at OTB there were more overlays than there are now. Now everyone has good information and many people generously share information and insights on social media. So even with the same track take, the game got tougher.
I’m not going to try and dissuade anyone from working hard toward reaching reasonable profit making goals. My only comment would revolve around the methodology used to achieve those goals. What I’ve personally come to realize is that an exact science like mathematics can’t be expected to allow an objective analysis of a continually changing game that involves the diverse performances of living flesh and blood animals. Animals who’s mental and physical well being at any given time can be affected by so many things that just can’t be quantified or computed.

Then of course, these same animals have to compete against one another in a variety of race conditions whose outcome can become difficult to predict on a consistent basis with limited resources. These speculations become even more complex when considering the unknown intentions of those who control every aspect of these race horse’s competitive lives.
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Old 09-21-2020, 04:32 PM   #20
biggestal99
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I sent the following email to Smarkets.

Dear Smarkets,
New Jersey is looking for a new partner to manage its exchange. Betfair is dumping me and others. Please, please, please help me and others who trade faithfully with the exchange. Give jersey people an option. Please. I despise betting parimutually. Please I am begging you. Please.



Allan
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Old 09-21-2020, 04:47 PM   #21
JustRalph
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Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
I sent the following email to Smarkets.

Dear Smarkets,
New Jersey is looking for a new partner to manage its exchange. Betfair is dumping me and others. Please, please, please help me and others who trade faithfully with the exchange. Give jersey people an option. Please. I despise betting parimutually. Please I am begging you. Please.



Allan
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Old 09-21-2020, 05:20 PM   #22
castaway01
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Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
I sent the following email to Smarkets.

Dear Smarkets,
New Jersey is looking for a new partner to manage its exchange. Betfair is dumping me and others. Please, please, please help me and others who trade faithfully with the exchange. Give jersey people an option. Please. I despise betting parimutually. Please I am begging you. Please.



Allan
I sent a very similar note to a girl I wanted to, um, date back in 8th grade. Except mine had more "pleases". Went about as well as yours probably will.
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Old 09-21-2020, 05:58 PM   #23
Onesome
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Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
I sent the following email to Smarkets.

Dear Smarkets,
New Jersey is looking for a new partner to manage its exchange. Betfair is dumping me and others. Please, please, please help me and others who trade faithfully with the exchange. Give jersey people an option. Please. I despise betting parimutually. Please I am begging you. Please.



Allan
Don't go writing to the providers, write to the horseman and ask them why they insist the funding model that worked in 1970 works now? ask them why they think 12% of nothing is better then 5-6% of something?

They're the ones who've made the model not feasible in the USA by outright refusing to play along in some cases or asking for a ransom commission rate.
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Old 09-22-2020, 09:42 AM   #24
biggestal99
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Originally Posted by castaway01 View Post
I sent a very similar note to a girl I wanted to, um, date back in 8th grade. Except mine had more "pleases". Went about as well as yours probably will.
Lol. Can’t say that I didn’t try. I really do despise PM and it’s usury takeout.

I paid betfair a shitload of money over the past years and this is how I am repaid.

Allan
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