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04-02-2021, 01:03 PM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhenry81
Nitro, if those results are typical, you have either arrived or are on your way!
BTW, would you care to loosely share how you arrive at "Par"
jh
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The PAR value is established through an analysis of ALL of the money combined from all of the betting pools being analyzed.
Each entry in the race is also provided with individual value at each betting interval.
These values are first compared to each other and then to the PAR value (again at each betting interval).
For the majority of mid-size to large tracks the betting intervals are broken down to 15 mins., 8/9 mins, and 4/5 mins to post.
Reviewing the O.A. intervals of entry and Par values will generally provide a good picture of the betting patterns. If the pattern is clear and the odds value (or Will Pays) of the contenders chosen is decent then it’s a Play. If not it’s a Pass
To get a better idea of what I’ve just described you can view an entire analysis here;
Post #46
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=163892&page=4
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04-02-2021, 01:08 PM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
Nitro: Is there a user group for the software that you use?
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I believe there might be a "User Group" but since I'm not the developer of the tote analysis program I don't have access to that info. From what I've been told the program is no longer available for sale.
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04-02-2021, 01:13 PM
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#48
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
Yeah, like that would happen.
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Damn, if only I'd been around I would have locked it up!
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04-02-2021, 01:37 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 163
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Thanks Nitro
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04-02-2021, 04:26 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Damn, if only I'd been around I would have locked it up!
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It would have put you in the running for a Nobel
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04-02-2021, 04:27 PM
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#51
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,623
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Why would anyone lock this thread?
Some people thrive on this kind of content...lol
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04-02-2021, 06:51 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I believe there might be a "User Group" but since I'm not the developer of the tote analysis program I don't have access to that info. From what I've been told the program is no longer available for sale.
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Thanks, Nitro.
Played around with having tote board theories programed a few years ago. Too expensive for an individual.
Very much enjoy your posts.
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04-02-2021, 08:27 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Here's a few examples of the sophisticated Tote analysis I use illustrating the last betting interval prior to post time. I don't rely on late money. I view the betting patterns over an entire betting cycle to determine the contenders for potential Vertical play.
From the information posted below see if you can determine the contenders. Then check the results.
4-1-21
TOTE ANALYSIS for GP Race #1 @ 5 minutes to post –
(Entries w/Computed Values lower than or closest to PAR are always of interest)
Code:
5 Min Ent#
205 1
353 2
124 3
000 4
191 5
000 6
166 7
198 8
132 9
299 10
000 11
000 12
000 13
000 14
000 15
000 16
161 PAR
4-1-21
TOTE ANALYSIS for GP Race #2 @ 5 minutes to post –
(Entries w/Computed Values lower than or closest to PAR are always of interest)
Code:
5 Min Ent#
99 1
91 2
77 3
93 4
107 5
000 6
000 7
000 8
000 9
000 10
000 11
000 12
000 13
000 14
000 15
000 16
89 PAR
4-1-21
TOTE ANALYSIS for GP Race #3 @ 5 minutes to post
(Entries w/Computed Values lower than or closest to PAR are always of interest)
Code:
5 Min Ent#
000 1
199 2
140 3
167 4
270 5
266 6
139 7
212 8
176 9
181 10
294 11
000 12
000 13
000 14
000 15
000 16
169 PAR
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I wouldn’t consider this piece of descriptive analytics to be sophisticated, but to each his own.
I don’t think the $2 bettor causes the late odds fluctuations. I think a critical mass of $2 bettors across the nation coupled with tote processors working in batches do
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04-02-2021, 10:44 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster
I wouldn’t consider this piece of descriptive analytics to be sophisticated, but to each his own.
I don’t think the $2 bettor causes the late odds fluctuations. I think a critical mass of $2 bettors across the nation coupled with tote processors working in batches do
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You might have my missed previous comments emphasizing my use of the final betting interval (@ 5 Mins to post) in the analysis rather than any late money viewed in just the Win pool (the Odds) as a superior indicator. That's why I only posted that interval portion of the analysis.
Rather than offering a trivial comment you might have guessed that the actual sophistication is built into the analysis itself and the results of course speak for themselves.
Just consider that at specific betting intervals a snapshot of all the money in each of the betting pools being monitored is retrieved. All of that data is then digested and analyzed using specific proprietary formulas to provide a simple output in the form of a numerical value for each entry and Par. The output is then reviewed at each betting interval for the comparisons I mentioned previously.
Yes the output certainly appears unpretentious, so much so that it makes the reviewing process during a typical betting cycle a very quick, easy and ordinary task. Yes, they're even color coded. Just what you need to avoid making judgement errors.
An example of a complete analysis follows:
Hong Kong – Sha Tin – 3-28-21
TOTE ANALYSIS for Race # 1 – (Entries w/Values lower than & closest to PAR are always of interest)
Code:
PK FIN 0 4min 10min 15min Ent#
497 541 523 526 1
4 414 518 480 439 2
547 520 527 514 3
1 1 425 291 274 265 4
677 602 556 545 5
3 463 379 381 370 6
601 617 638 636 7
6 3 420 404 401 402 8
2 2 489 325 303 312 9
5 4 503 373 347 338 10
484 557 571 548 11
527 442 444 417 12
615 551 580 571 13
530 549 536 529 14
476 398 386 378 PAR
Results: 4-9-8-10 – BIG Dutch WIN 122% Profit Margin - PLAYED /
$31.80 Quinella & $162.20 Triple BX & ($717.00 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!
BTW - Thanks for confirming exactly what I thought you meant by your earlier post ( #4).
However, you might want to reconsider your naïve position about the $2 bettor.
Just view the Win and Place pool totals for this race alone in HK:
WIN - 21,476,638 HK$ = 4,295,327 US$
PLC - 22,708,456 HK$ = 4,541,691 US$
,
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04-03-2021, 12:26 AM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster
I don’t think the $2 bettor causes the late odds fluctuations. I think a critical mass of $2 bettors across the nation coupled with tote processors working in batches do
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I am willing to bet my bottom dollar that there isn't even a single person on this board who thinks that these drastic odds dropdowns that we so often see are caused by a mass of small bettors. And I know this because we've discussed this topic here ad nauseam. EVERYBODY here knows that these dropdowns are caused by some ultra-sophisticated hi-tech bettors.
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So much for that bet!
This topic may have been "discussed here ad nauseam."
Perhaps Turf Monster missed every one of those conversations.
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04-03-2021, 10:24 AM
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#56
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Nitro, would you care to share your $1 returns for all of your various bets with us, for say the last 500 to 1000 races.
thanks
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-03-2021, 05:05 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
You might have my missed previous comments emphasizing my use of the final betting interval (@ 5 Mins to post) in the analysis rather than any late money viewed in just the Win pool (the Odds) as a superior indicator. That's why I only posted that interval portion of the analysis.
Rather than offering a trivial comment you might have guessed that the actual sophistication is built into the analysis itself and the results of course speak for themselves.
Just consider that at specific betting intervals a snapshot of all the money in each of the betting pools being monitored is retrieved. All of that data is then digested and analyzed using specific proprietary formulas to provide a simple output in the form of a numerical value for each entry and Par. The output is then reviewed at each betting interval for the comparisons I mentioned previously.
Yes the output certainly appears unpretentious, so much so that it makes the reviewing process during a typical betting cycle a very quick, easy and ordinary task. Yes, they're even color coded. Just what you need to avoid making judgement errors.
An example of a complete analysis follows:
Hong Kong – Sha Tin – 3-28-21
TOTE ANALYSIS for Race # 1 – (Entries w/Values lower than & closest to PAR are always of interest)
Code:
PK FIN 0 4min 10min 15min Ent#
497 541 523 526 1
4 414 518 480 439 2
547 520 527 514 3
1 1 425 291 274 265 4
677 602 556 545 5
3 463 379 381 370 6
601 617 638 636 7
6 3 420 404 401 402 8
2 2 489 325 303 312 9
5 4 503 373 347 338 10
484 557 571 548 11
527 442 444 417 12
615 551 580 571 13
530 549 536 529 14
476 398 386 378 PAR
Results: 4-9-8-10 – BIG Dutch WIN 122% Profit Margin - PLAYED /
$31.80 Quinella & $162.20 Triple BX & ($717.00 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!
BTW - Thanks for confirming exactly what I thought you meant by your earlier post ( #4).
However, you might want to reconsider your naïve position about the $2 bettor.
Just view the Win and Place pool totals for this race alone in HK:
WIN - 21,476,638 HK$ = 4,295,327 US$
PLC - 22,708,456 HK$ = 4,541,691 US$
,
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The methodology seems unpretentious. A sophisticated predictive analytics package would look forward and not back in time. Again, to each his own. I’m simply adding this to explain that there are people doing this and you would likely make more money if you employed it, if done properly
Last edited by The_Turf_Monster; 04-03-2021 at 05:06 PM.
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04-03-2021, 05:47 PM
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#58
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Why would anyone lock this thread?
Some people thrive on this kind of content...lol
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There would be three more just like it in no time.
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04-03-2021, 11:49 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Nitro, would you care to share your $1 returns for all of your various bets with us, for say the last 500 to 1000 races.
thanks [/B]
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To be honest I would have no interest generating that type of information. Converting all of my plays to illustrate just $1 returns is asking a bit much. However, be my guest for you or anyone else in using the PA “Search” engine to review all of my posted selections (well over 1,000) with their results. All you have to do is enter “Tote Analysis” if you’re logged in and add “Nitro” if you’re not. BTW I have nothing to prove to anyone but myself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster
The methodology seems unpretentious. A sophisticated predictive analytics package would look forward and not back in time. Again, to each his own. I’m simply adding this to explain that there are people doing this and you would likely make more money if you employed it, if done properly
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Apparently you’ve once again misinterpreted the entire purpose and function of the tote analysis I’m using. It has absolutely nothing to do with making predictions. It provides very meaningful information about potential contenders during the actual betting cycle in real time. It’s up to those using that information for the potential prediction and perhaps betting purposes.
There’s no reason to further complicate this excellent methodology with a “predictive analytics package”.
As my mentor has pointed out in the past it was always his goal to use a proven engineering philosophy when he developed his tote program. Maybe you’ve heard of it? It’s called the “KISS” principle. (Keep It Simple Stupid”).
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04-04-2021, 10:26 AM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 518
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You can keep it as simple as you want, I’m merely pointing out that the quants that don’t keep it simple are taking money out of the people in the pools that do. Part of me feels bad when I write a machine learning algorithm that advises me to take money out of others’ pockets in the mutuels but the indignantly stubborn opinions from people like you help get me over it
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