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03-29-2021, 01:04 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
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Stretching Out
Young horse's, stretching out. Hard to forecast what is going to happen. I have followed this "angle" for a while. Have found it does work with older horses also. But, with older horses you also need to look at how the horse has preformed at routes in the past. A recent example of this was in the FLA Derby. Soup and Sandwich. Bet this horse, and got a good return. Highlighted is the race that fits the angle. The 6.5f sprint. The pace line is what I call even. 94 / 96 / 98. The speed figure earned is very close to all the Pace #'s.
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03-29-2021, 01:13 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
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On the same day, It Can Be Done in the 11th race. Check out the Maiden win at Monmouth. 89 / 85 / 94. Followed by the stretch out victory at 8/1.
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03-30-2021, 04:40 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3
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STRETCH OUT ANGLE
Hi. What is the stretch out angle?
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03-30-2021, 04:47 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
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The nice "even" pace figures in a sprint.
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03-30-2021, 04:50 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3
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STRETCH OUT ANGLE
How many races back? Last Sprint?
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03-30-2021, 07:37 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horsecat
How many races back? Last Sprint?
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I am looking at young horse's, hopefully within the first 4 races.
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03-31-2021, 10:16 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
I am looking at young horse's, hopefully within the first 4 races.
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Been a while since I've been on the board, having a new baby in December will do that to a guy 
This is an angle I love to look for also. Young horses that can sit on/close to the pace in sprints stretching out to routes. Especially true if breeding leads me to believe they will like the stretch out.
The anti-angle so to speak that I always try to avoid is late running closing sprinters (again, talking young horses that have never routed before) stretching out. Feel like too many times I see a horse going 6 furlongs close from 8+ lengths back to finish second or third by a length or two try to stretch out and then not have the necessary kick to pass horses when the fractions are more like 24/48/1:13 instead of 22/45/1:11
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03-31-2021, 10:42 AM
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#8
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,270
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William Quirin spoke about this pace & speed figure dynamic in his book ‘Thoroughbred Handicapping: State Of The Art’ published in 1984.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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03-31-2021, 10:59 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
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Congrats, Immortal6. Found some examples for today. The first one is at Sam Houston in the 7th. Boazun, the race 2 back fits, and you get a bonus that the horse has proven ability at the distance.
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03-31-2021, 11:03 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
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Second one is Catch That Party in the 8th at Sam Houston. The concern with this one is that the speed figure should be near 80 and is at 73. The odds might decide the play on this one. Would love to see odds around 8/1.
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03-31-2021, 11:07 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
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Next one is Sunset Paula Jo in the 7th at Oaklawn. This one fits to a T, and you have the ML to keep you interested.
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03-31-2021, 11:11 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
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And the last one is Its My Bag Baby in the 9th at Oaklawn. Last race is a very good fit, the speed figure is low but close. You have a added bonus of the race on April 9th with a figure of 82. Sorry, cut that race out of the screen shot, but it is on the PP.
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03-31-2021, 11:13 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
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As with all angles, other handicapping is required. Think the last two with the ML at 12/1 are the most interesting.
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03-31-2021, 11:20 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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I like the even running style with young horses stretching out angle, provided the pedigree is suitable. A lot of these one paced horses just aren't that good in sprints because they can't quicken enough at the faster clip. In the route race, the pace is slower and they can settle into their stride and finish.
I find it amazing how many times I see a one paced horse with a route pedigree being run in sprint races for a sustained period, like the first ten starts of its career, and then someone claims the horse, puts it in a route race and the horse develops into a useful raceway horse. You see this a lot with the low percentage trainers.
Gasper Moschera used to do this in NY, very successfully. He'd claim horses out of sprints that he thought should be running in route races, and he had quite a few solid racehorses that he claimed and stretched out and kept racing and earning money for him for several years.
Last edited by pandy; 03-31-2021 at 11:23 AM.
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03-31-2021, 12:44 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,692
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Next one is Sunset Paula Jo in the 7th at Oaklawn. This one fits to a T, and you have the ML to keep you interested.
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This is an AOC-$20k with a purse of $105,000. Not bad.
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