Starting to see Baffert as a villain?

[cj]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Add to that, he had the horse treated by a acupuncturist. That says to me that something was wrong, and they had no idea what it was.

Poor breaks are often a sign of problems. I hate them and love to bet against horses that do it out of the blue.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Improbable is the example of a maturing race horse and an example of why healthy horses should not retire early. He’s just a horse that’s gotten better. It was a great ride. People make a big deal out of ground loss but he kept that horse in the clear with an easy gait going. While the others were bunched , slugging it out. Why wouldn’t he angle wide and swoop the group..... saved all kinds of energy early on. This horse Improbable , has finally turned the corner .

True. There have probably been many horses that showed flashes but never quite put it together but could have gone on to be multiple graded stakes winners if they hadn't been retired after their 3yo season.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by pandy

True. There have probably been many horses that showed flashes but never quite put it together but could have gone on to be multiple graded stakes winners if they hadn't been retired after their 3yo season.

All you have to do is look at a career like Cigar's and you know we are missing out on a lot from all the early retirements.

[cnollfan]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I haven't looked at the data yet, but it seems to me I've seen a LOT of very slow MSW and Stake winning 2yos from good barns this year compared to previous years. I'm beginning to wonder whether the Covid track closures and uncertainty has a lot of the 2yos further behind in their development than in the typical year.

Many of the 2 year old races this year are lasix-free.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by cj

Poor breaks are often a sign of problems. I hate them and love to bet against horses that do it out of the blue.

I think we are sitting at the same table on this one.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cnollfan

Many of the 2 year old races this year are lasix-free.

I totally forgot about that and hadn't even noticed. Thanks.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by cnollfan

Many of the 2 year old races this year are lasix-free.

Yeah, but we have been assured that Lasix has no performance enhancing effect.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Yeah, but we have been assured that Lasix has no performance enhancing effect.

Of Saratoga's graded stakes for 2yos, only the 2020 Adirondack was slower than the 2019 edition. They did not run the Sanford this year.

Of Del Mar's graded stakes for 2yos, only the 2020 DM Futurity was faster than the 2019 edition (which had 2 contenders wiped out at the start).

At Santa Anita, the 2020 American Pharoah was faster than the 2019 edition and the 2020 Chandelier was slower than the 2019 edition.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Of Saratoga's graded stakes for 2yos, only the 2020 Adirondack was slower than the 2019 edition. They did not run the Sanford this year.

Of Del Mar's graded stakes for 2yos, only the 2020 DM Futurity was faster than the 2019 edition (which had 2 contenders wiped out at the start).

At Santa Anita, the 2020 American Pharoah was faster than the 2019 edition and the 2020 Chandelier was slower than the 2019 edition.

Do NOT give facts to refute uneducated BS going forward. It's unacceptable.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Do NOT give facts to refute uneducated BS going forward. It's unacceptable.

So you are saying that class handicapper's statement that the 2yo's are slower is wrong? Because all I did was comment on that statement.

[classhandicapper]

I suspect I look at a lot more 2yo races nationally and have PAR figures for more classes than some of you guys. I will check my database when I get free time to look at averages, but I’ve seen a LOT of 2yo MSW races, especially at Ellis for example, with figures in the 50s and 60s and some races in other places that were just as bad. That kind of thing is not very shocking when you have the early April and May 2yo races and the horses are VERY early in their development. They are also often some of the weakest MSW horses that debut then. But the tracks were closed then. I was still seeing a lot of those terrible figures at a time when they should have blossomed further and the better ones started coming out. That’s why I said it seems like they are behind in their development.

Even Princes Noor is an example.

She looks like the second coming of something special on paper but she’s running pedestrian figures in the 70s. That tells you how terrible the rest of them are. Even if her own figure was comparable to last year or better, it’s well below the PAR for a huge winner at this time of year. The same is true of a race like the American Pharaoah.

The idea would be to compare 2yo figures to the longer term PARs at various times of the year.

I have much of that code already available and all the data for all the major tracks in my data base. I’ll check and post the results if anyone wants to know. Perhaps things are the same as usual and I’ve just observed a lot of slow fields when I was playing.

Please let’s not discuss whether Lasix is a performance enhancer. Jerry Brown has already studied it with his figures and said it is. CJ can speak for himself, but I believe he agrees. I’ve studied Lasix from another statistical direction because I trusted those guys to be correct about figures and it was an obvious advantage. Trainers wouldn’t give it to their horses that don’t need if they didn’t know it too.

That issue is about economics but some people don’t like inconvenient truths and want to run horses with a health issue and need it. So they ignore or spin the reality that it helps many horses run faster.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Add to that, he had the horse treated by a acupuncturist. That says to me that something was wrong, and they had no idea what it was.

Acutally, it says something is right.

There are trainers backside who use acupuncturists and chiropracters, instead of hypodermic needles and pharamceuticals, and use thse techniques as on-going health intervention, so that horses can stay OFF pharmaceuticals. .

Just like all the human Functional Medicine M.Ds. do with people.

If anything, I'd think the horse was going to be in BETTER shape under that kind of care, because it's not given just to fix a problem, it's given as a way to stay balanced and healthy, and it's part of an overall pro-active and preventative health practice.

The myofacial stretching is especially useful to horses' legs. I've watched it done, and had it done to me. Druggers will just "shoot 'em up".

I know chiros and acupuncturists who work backside, because I go to them myself. It sure beats a trip to the pharmacy.

[classhandicapper]

I just checked my database. Almost across the board the average MSW race for 2yos is running slower in 2020 than between 2015- 2019 (which is the rest of the time period I have the data). I looked at major tracks and broke down each PAR by quarter. So we don't have any data for the 4th quarter of 2020 yet.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I just checked my database. Almost across the board the average MSW race for 2yos is running slower in 2020 than between 2015- 2019 (which is the rest of the time period I have the data). I looked at major tracks and broke down each PAR by quarter. So we don't have any data for the 4th quarter of 2020 yet.

I mean it is painfully obvious Lasix makes horses run faster and since speed figures for the races are largely based on races where horses are using Lasix, they are going to come back slower. The jumps next year will be bigger than the usual "improving 3yo" jumps. It will be important to factor that in when using the projection method to make numbers.

I'm not saying Lasix is good or bad, by the way. It is just a fact that it makes horses run faster races.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I haven't looked at the data yet, but it seems to me I've seen a LOT of very slow MSW and Stake winning 2yos from good barns this year compared to previous years. I'm beginning to wonder whether the Covid track closures and uncertainty has a lot of the 2yos further behind in their development than in the typical year.

I checked into this - half of all the races for younger horse were run slower than average.

Seriously, it might be that but the trend seems to that horse no longer race - they gallop. Bonehead trainers and riders combing to make horse racing a very uninteresting game to play or watch.
NYRA is going to have to start their first race at 10 am this winter in order get all their races in before sundown.

Or, instead of have the last race be an optional claimer, have it be an optional race....if time allows.......