First time starters, teach me what to look for.

[Nitro]

The majority of the comments posted thus far are really just obvious things that the typical handicapper will look for when trying to determine if a FTS’er has a shot at running well or possibly even winning a race. However, only a few have touched on what I believe to be the most telling aspect of a race containing 1 or more FTS’ers: The Tote Board.

But it’s also obvious how few of the typical handicappers (in general) realize just how telling the movement of money really is. That’s primarily because (if they even bother to look at all) they in all likelihood will just view the Odds. Unfortunately the Odds reflect only a single betting pool: The Win pool. By comparison it’s like looking at the PP’s and only considering a single running line of each entry or even a single factor among all running lines.

On a broader scale, I can also attest to the fact that the typical handicapper just doesn’t realize that the game is not just about the horses, but about those who attempt to gain financially through direct and indirect control of every aspect of their racing careers. Understanding how they achieve that goal is accomplished by analyzing the flow of money (All the money) during a typical betting cycle.

That being said, it might lead those curious enough to perhaps realize that the serious and successful betting side of the game (in terms of where, when and how the money is actually wagered) is a result of basic human physiological traits. After all we’re just creatures of habit and of course if something works, the smartest players naturally won’t fix it. And if anyone at this point thinks that the entire betting population is composed of just the general public, I would suggest some corrective deliberation.

[jk3521]

One thing no one has mentioned. Check the foal date. Pay close attention to horses foaled earlier in the year.

[cnollfan]

I don't like to see too many workouts. There's a good chance a horse that has been working out for months and months without racing doesn't "get it." I prefer to see a few closely-spaced works near the race date.

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by deathandgravity

Use to just turn the page if majority of the field was first time starters.

But.. the BRIS Pedigree # can give you some nice long shots.
Especially on the Turf

Interesting. Why especially on turf?

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by jay68802

And one thing that does not appear in the form, Blinkers.

Does it make a difference whether the horse is just changing whether they wear blinkers or specifically off/on?

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by gabe

Let's talk "First-time starters". When looking at first time starters what do you look for? I could definitely use a refresher on what to look for with firsters.

I have been handicapping since I was 7 years old. But I don't think I've been approaching first time starters the wrong way.

Do you buy the brisnet premium pp with comments? Tells you right there if sire/trainer is good with fts and what the track bias is.

[WaHoo]

FTS

I'm a little different than most posters

I look at the fts in the post parade and going to post
I want their ears pointed forward and their neck bowed
their tail off their rump 3 or 4 inches
back legs to be walking straight
front wraps I kick out with that said about wraps they will all win

WaHoo aka buffalo

[WaHoo]

Negative signs

Ears laid backwards
neck sweat depends on how hot it is
kidney and chest sweat automatic kick out
horse bucking kicking with lead ponie
tail swiching left or right
I don't like a horse that is looking around such as looking to the grand stand
I want the horse looking down the track wanting to run

I use these on all races
I just want to be right on the $20 to $40 horses
I remember one horse I had every thing tied into it M/l 7:2
opened as favorite Post Parade tail was really popping left and right so I took him off all the bets I could he came out of the gate tail still popping down the stretch still popping across finish line still popping in first if you heard someone in the restroom throwing up it was probably Me if I hadn't looked I would have had single in that first leg also I would have had the Tri and SF
So be careful of what you see

Wahoo aka buffalo


PS- this is for picking the winners

[TMQ]

A great workout for the horses first work. I have hit some nice long shot's with this angle. Preferably 1/20 or more. In my opinion the first workout shows if the horse has "true" speed.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

Does it make a difference whether the horse is just changing whether they wear blinkers or specifically off/on?

For first time starters there is no mention if the horse is wearing blinkers or not. Something you have to pick up on in the post parade. Any horse that has a race you can see in the form if they wore them in their first race.

[Seagoer]

Blinkers on a FTS and the trainer has a high % with the blinkers on angle.
Perhaps the reason the trainer has a high % is his/her FTS wearing blinkers.
The % is not listed for FTS in the trainer stats, so must be looked up. As all angles do not stand alone other factors need to fall into place.

Excellent point by NITRO concerning the Tote Board. Playing daily me and Tote are on first name basis. Here is a example and with practice you will see it with all type of races.
This was last week or so on the turf.
Runners M/L was 12-1 and rightly so on paper and could of been higher.
Even if you make your own line would of been about the same.
But was bet down to around 6-1 and holding. Why is this asking my self.
Well the horse won with a very nice turf kick to run by them all.

Only explanation is there is a lot that goes on behind the scene and if
there are smart money folks or in the know folks I will be on board for the
ride.

Practice/Research this you will see it. Scratches are a concern but if
something looks odd ask the question why.

Note: One of the reasons I don't invest much in horizontal wagering is
because of what happens above. Perhaps the runner would not of
been on my ticket because didn't look like could win on paper or
even with research.

[lamboguy]

in today's world when trainers and owners have more than one horse in the race, look to where the money isn't!

first time out is going to be the best chance for someone to take down a score with their horse. the only way that they get some type of a price is to fool the clockers.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I don't how much I trust times for horses working out at offtrack training centers. I'd rather see how the horse works at the track where he's running.

You really have to know trainer patterns on workouts. Baffert has no problem with a :35 workout before a race. Doug O'Neill is more likely to ask the jockey for a smooth :49

You have to know the difference between a horse that always works fast and the horse that is being advertised for sale with a fast work.

[burnsy]

The way I bet my advice is to turn the page and wait. Goes right to the "Discipline Thread". I count on seeing a record and patterns in horses so the Maiden races hold little interest for me. Plus, I play Saratoga almost daily and those things are the kiss of death. Either Chad Brown or Todd Pletcher win at odds of 4/5 or its a horse you usually really have to reach for. Unless its a couple of other usual trainers like the two mentioned and they will be over bet too. And anyone that tells you they know what a 2 yo (first timer) will do at the gate........they are lying. I've seen so many go awry that its a crap shoot that people try to convince themselves its not. I can't bet some 3/5 shot because it will probably win then watch it fall out of the gate. Crap like that can sour the rest of the day......that's my experience, others say they have it figured out, which just by the nature of these races......i find it hard to believe. Do you have a kid that played T-Ball or minor league baseball? You know where the kid hits it 8 feet and there are 3 over throws so its a home run? IMO that's what you kind of are betting on with 2 yo first timers and a couple that have raced once or twice.

The only time Ill break this rule is if someone i really trust tells me about one that's a good price. Which is like twice a summer or so. And even that "info" is sometimes iffy.

Look for the next race!