Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Vic,
Should we assume the core of your handicapping is Thorograph and then you add insights onto that?
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I wouldn't use the word core. Well maybe.
Before I began using ThoroGraph I was trading dollars but not really making a sustained profit.
I was doing it by using the traditional methods. LOTS of replay work. Anticipating race shape. Riding the wave of hot barns and by far the most important element. Work Ethic.
I could look at every race for 2 hours and go back again to make sure I didn't miss anything.
That's still in place today.
What ThoroGraph has done for me is eliminate making bets that in retrospect couldn't win no matter what.
All the pieces in place. The stars perfectly aligned. Everything could go exactly as I forecasted and I'd run a well beaten 4th. Why?
THE HORSE SIMPLY WASN'T FAST ENOUGH.
Now with ThoroGraph that never happens. So it's allowed me to pass on a ton of losing bets.
The next most important thing with TG is it allows me to know that a short price favorite is no better on numbers than 3 or 4 others in the same race.
When I see that. A race that looked garbled or maybe not worth attacking becomes one I'll dive much deeper into.
Any group of good handicappers I think would agree. The road to value goes straight through who we can eliminate rather than include. TG is invaluable in that regard.
Another plus is economical usage of time. I can look at a card and identify races that will be impossible grab bags in 30 seconds. Set them aside and have that much more time for opportunities.
Which brings me to an OFF TOPIC opinion.
I believe trying to cap more than 2 tracks on a consistent basis is a HUGE mistake. For me I concentrate solely on two circuits at a time. Usually NYRA and Southern California.
I will switch in Ky, which doesn't help with time zones, When good Churchill or Keeneland and certainly Ky. Downs are open. I usually do that when they're at Los Alamitos.
When Oaklawn is running I switch down to only one track. There's a couple of reasons for that. I have to do a live handicapping presentation on TV everyday and that takes extra prep. Plus during that time I'm calling the races making it very difficult to pay the requisite amount of attention to NYRA or So. Cal.
Truth be told my handle plummets during Oaklawn. Also, I've become a tournament player far more than day to day. I'd burn out VERY quickly doing all the work that's needed to feel confident on a daily basis.
I once said to Tina. "Baby we made $200,000 this year betting horses" She said that's nice. Figure it out you're getting paid $11.18 an hour
My focus now is pretty much on Huge days. Or Huge tournaments.
I've already started my preliminary work for the BCBC which isn't until November. I've cashed 4 of the last 5 years. 7th last year. It's not unusual for me to play that Tourney and not make another bet until Oaklawn opens the third week of January. This year we start Dec. 3.
So getting back to the original question.
I suppose core is a good word. It's one of a myriad of tools I use. But I can 1000% assure you this. Without ThoroGraph I would never bet a nickle!