Contrarian Investing-JNJ?

[Ocala Mike]

Sorry, I see what you did there, and it looks spot on now. This is a tough market - I'm in NVAX as a purely speculative play with some house money, hoping they develop an RSV vaccine and/or get bought out.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Sorry, I see what you did there, and it looks spot on now. This is a tough market - I'm in NVAX as a purely speculative play with some house money, hoping they develop an RSV vaccine and/or get bought out.

OC, no problem. You've got some great ideas, made a "quick" 5K just from one of your spec ideas, so I'd buy you a drink if you're ever in my locale. btw, as to NVAX, I misread the volume on that yesterday, thought it was down around 35K, and now see it was 3.5M so I'll have to take a 2nd look at that one. I usually shy away from low volume stocks, just because they're hard to get out of in a hurry if needed.

[FakeNameChanged]

I called FB a contrarian play back in October 2018 after their data breach. After that, it went back over their 8 day EMA, they went up 50 bucks thru July. Overall market woes knocked them back down over the last several weeks, and I've gone back in last week, after seeing favorable technicals. Don't get me wrong, I don't really like what this company does or the CEO, but use it as a trading vehicle. Along with AAPL, they still look to be in a long term up trend.

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Sorry, I see what you did there, and it looks spot on now. This is a tough market - I'm in NVAX as a purely speculative play with some house money, hoping they develop an RSV vaccine and/or get bought out.

NVAX doubled last week (low of just over $4, touched $8 - consolidating lower now). Word to the wise - do your research, don't get hurt.

[FakeNameChanged]

After my orig. post on JNJ, they rose $23 during the next 4-5 months only to get pummeled again, and then rose 25 bucks through mid-June this year. Now lawsuits are getting settled, so I may get back in at a low. Not often that you get a contrarian play over and over again with strong companies. Drugs and tobacco have done that in the past, and JNJ qualifies on that front. GE doesn't qualify on sector or strength.

[FakeNameChanged]

I'm considering a small play on DB after all their negative press, which was justified as to money laundering and who knows what else. Oh yeah, the b_ _ tards loaned money to Trump, how dare they. Have to get some more information on understanding their financials first. Any of you ex-bank execs want to share your thoughts, it would be appreciated. Their almost 2 year long slide is troubling, and doesn't fit my normal MO.

[FakeNameChanged]

Not the usual negative press and it didn't impact the price today except a short 5% drop. Finished up 1.5% by end of the day. When the founder, Larry Ellison is still onboard it should be in good hands. So I looked at a slew of bad analysts' ratings for the last year and a half on finviz.com. I may follow and look for a pullback regardless, it's not like this giant is going down the drain anytime soon.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Not the usual negative press and it didn't impact the price today except a short 5% drop. Finished up 1.5% by end of the day. When the founder, Larry Ellison is still onboard it should be in good hands. So I looked at a slew of bad analysts' ratings for the last year and a half on finviz.com. I may follow and look for a pullback regardless, it's not like this giant is going down the drain anytime soon.

Getting hammered today a day after the news.

[FakeNameChanged]

The old Phillip Morris company-MO along with Merck Drug was one of my original contrarian plays about 15 years ago. While I've never smoked nor condone the practice, I was a buyer of MO after they got pounded with all the smoking lawsuits across the country. After the dust settled, their dividend was around 6%. I had trouble convincing anyone that this was a great investment, even trying to sell the fact they also owned Kraft foods and Nabisco.

With all the bad vaping news and the President tweeting about going after them again, it may be round two for MO. Their current dividend sits at 7.5% but their financials are NOT nearly as solid as they were back when they still owned Phillip Morris International which has been spun off. Interesting that both Goldman and Morgan Stanley upgraded their ratings just this summer, while Piper Jaffray downgraded this week. It will interesting to see what shakes out about their finances as lawsuits get settled. I realize this is probably only interesting to me.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

I'm considering a small play on DB after all their negative press, which was justified as to money laundering and who knows what else. Oh yeah, the b_ _ tards loaned money to Trump, how dare they. Have to get some more information on understanding their financials first. Any of you ex-bank execs want to share your thoughts, it would be appreciated. Their almost 2 year long slide is troubling, and doesn't fit my normal MO.

Up 15.7% in the 8 days since posting this. Tighten stops.

[FakeNameChanged]

Almost can't believe I typed the name Ford as a possible contrarian play. Fundamentals are not good for this company, especially their debt ratios. But along with their reliable truck models, I'm reading some interesting things about their all electric SUV that should hit the market next year. The most interesting thing about it is, over a 300 mile range on a single charge. Ford treated me very well back when all the other US auto comp's were getting government handouts, and they declined. I invested a week or two after that news and regret not buying more. A co-worker bought 50,000 shares at $1.00.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

I called FB a contrarian play back in October 2018 after their data breach. After that, it went back over their 8 day EMA, they went up 50 bucks thru July. Overall market woes knocked them back down over the last several weeks, and I've gone back in last week, after seeing favorable technicals. Don't get me wrong, I don't really like what this company does or the CEO, but use it as a trading vehicle. Along with AAPL, they still look to be in a long term up trend.

Elizabeth Warren's threat to break up Facebook looks to be a dream scenario for someone shorting them. I'll wait for more positive news to go long again, might be awhile.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

The old Phillip Morris company-MO along with Merck Drug was one of my original contrarian plays about 15 years ago. While I've never smoked nor condone the practice, I was a buyer of MO after they got pounded with all the smoking lawsuits across the country. After the dust settled, their dividend was around 6%. I had trouble convincing anyone that this was a great investment, even trying to sell the fact they also owned Kraft foods and Nabisco.

With all the bad vaping news and the President tweeting about going after them again, it may be round two for MO. Their current dividend sits at 7.5% but their financials are NOT nearly as solid as they were back when they still owned Phillip Morris International which has been spun off. Interesting that both Goldman and Morgan Stanley upgraded their ratings just this summer, while Piper Jaffray downgraded this week. It will interesting to see what shakes out about their finances as lawsuits get settled. I realize this is probably only interesting to me.

Somewhat interesting to me, while the S&P500 has declined sharply over the last 2+ weeks, Altria(MO) has held steady and risen slightly. If the market reverts back to its long term uptrend, then MO looks to have hit bottom, sporting an 8% dividend.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Somewhat interesting to me, while the S&P500 has declined sharply over the last 2+ weeks, Altria(MO) has held steady and risen slightly. If the market reverts back to its long term uptrend, then MO looks to have hit bottom, sporting an 8% dividend.

-i would be very leary of equities that pay extra large dividends like those MO and PM.
to give you an example, Royal Gold (RGLD) is a very strong stock right now and they have a dividend that is less than 1.5%. there are always reasons why companies pay high dividends.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

-i would be very leary of equities that pay extra large dividends like those MO and PM.
to give you an example, Royal Gold (RGLD) is a very strong stock right now and they have a dividend that is less than 1.5%. there are always reasons why companies pay high dividends.

I have owned Berkshire-Hathaway and other companies with no dividend for years. This theme wasn't about dividends, I just added that concerning MO. My original theme was that MO has been beat up with the vaping news, and I did state its financials make me suspicious. Thanks for RGLD recommendation.