Keeneland 10/22 Race 6 analysis

[letswastemoney]

Give your opinion too if you want.

BRIS PPs

Chip Leader (5/1) - My choice for the race. He cost 180k and I can't figure out why. His dam wasn't much, and neither was his second dam. I realize Giant's Causeway is an expensive sire, but there must be something more. Also, his debut win looks nice on paper. The pick.

It'll Be Fine (4/1) - Only cost 12k. Four starts, and his last one earned his best number, but I'm not impressed enough. Underneath or ignore.

A Day in Paradise (9/2) - Cost 50k. Two starts, and neither look particularly fast, although I realize there was trouble in each start. The jockey lost the whip in his maiden win last time...I think. Still, only a 73 and 69 for his efforts on the TimeformUS scale. There might be more here, but I'm willing to put this one in the underneath category.

My Johnny Be Good (6/1) - Another Eoin Harty two year old that will start without lasix. Two starts, and the numbers are low, but they were on synthetic and in sprints. The switch to a dirt route may help, but I'm willing to ignore without lasix.

One Go All Go (7/2) - Only cost 40k. Two starts under a different trainer at Arlington, and they look a bit faster than these. Now he switches to top trainer Bill Mott and dirt. Will that mean he runs faster or slower? Not sure. If I had to guess, with Fairbanks as the sire and Marquetry as the damsire, he's probably a synthetic horse. Pass.

Eagle (5/1) - Two starts, and both of them slow. He is a closer, and according to the pace projector the race favors closers. Underneath possibility.

Henry Jones (8/1) - Three starts, with the latest one on dirt. His best effort came in that dirt race. The pace projector doesn't believe this Lukas trained colt will be on the lead, but with the switch to Paco Lopez, he should be at least within a length of the leaders, if not on the lead. Sometimes Lukas gets expensive horses. There is nothing special in the family here though. Reluctant pass.

Rod McLeod (8/1) - Respect the bullet workout. Best out of 39. Still, there are three starts on this colt's record, and his highest TimeformUS number came in the debut with a 69. I don't normally trust 4.5 furlong speed figures from any source and find them meaningless when the horse stretches out. Either underneath or pass.

Selection: Chip Leader

I don't have a standout second choice, so it looks like I'll stick with a win bet if I play.

[snickster]

Looks like a bad picking race as all the horses are about evenly matched and nothing really stands out to me. The #1 looks good off of his first out win but that was on grass and there was really nothing outstanding about that race compared to the races of the other horses in this race as they all have ran pretty well at MSW in about the same mediocre race times (46/3 or so 4F point races). So it is just a guessing game as to who is the best of these since all are very lightly raced.

That being said I am kind of leaning towards the two AP horses #4 & #5. AP horses with decent times usually do good at KEE. #4 ran against Nun the Less first out and only lost by a neck and NTL beat#2 who is a pretty good horse in last in allowance distance.

#5 just ran 3rd in Gr 3 at AP and has been throwing fractions of 1:11 at the 6F point which is very good for AP.

All the others look good also but I am just looking for something I can point to in the PP's that look a little impressive.

[KidCapper]

I think its a 2-horse race in here.

The Catalano puts the blinker on, a move where he hits at 23%. Debut was solid winning long on the turf at 1st asking not an easy task. I think this one improves on the dirt today & Bridgmohan is red hot at the moment.

The . My other contender in here just missed off the shelf last out at CD. Stalker owns the right style for this race set-up today. Bred to get better with added distance. Think the price may be slightly higher on this one so this may be the value bet here.

Wagers

$10 WP
$5 Exacta Box

Good Luck
KidCapper

[letswastemoney]

Chip Leader is cold on the board.

I get that is coming out of a G3, but I'm not sure a G3 for 2 year olds means much more than an allowance race. We'll see.

[upthecreek]

Nice call ,nice price

[snickster]

Good pick Kid Capper. I was looking hard at the #6 also with that 1 mile very evenly run race 3 lengths off at the start and finish - an excellent sign for a stretch out to 1 1/16. I just thought that that race might have been a little weak since the #8 Rod McLeod was the pace setter in that race and he did not look all that extremely tough. Oh well. I was right though about one of the AP horses who got second and that it was a wide open race.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

nice job KC!