Morning Line Odds on favorites

[zico20]

It is my belief that the morning line odds on favorites are purposely inflated to attract more money being bet before the public sees the first odds on the tote board. I simply do not believe that almost every single guy who makes the odds can be way off so many times. I think the track owners or whoever is in charge tells the guy to not make the odds to low on obvious favorites. It simply is not possible for every guy that makes the lines to be that incompetent.

I once saw a card a couple of years ago where the lowest price on the morning line was 2-1 and out of the ten races 7 favorites went off under even money and the other three were around 3-2. Why is it also that if the morning line is 4-5 so many go off at 1-5. If you think the horse will be 1-5 then make the horse 1-5. It is dishonest to inflate the big favorite since the morning line is supposed to be what the actual horses are going to go off at.

Saturday at Thistledowns in their stake race the 5 was listed at 8-5 and went off at 1-5. Anyone who can read a form could see this horse was never going to be over 2-5.

This happens at every track and I wish they could be more honest with the public.

Thoughts?

[Mineshaft]

too many conspiracy theories going on in this forum

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by zico20

If you think the horse will be 1-5 then make the horse 1-5. It is dishonest to inflate the big favorite since the morning line is supposed to be what the actual horses are going to go off at.

Thoughts?

There have been previous threads on this topic. As you say (and however one may feel about it), the linemaker may as a matter of common practice artificially raise the odds on favorites and lower them on longshots to make it appear (looking only at the morning line) that the race is more competitive than it actually is, and to promote betting interest on each entrant. Or, depending on the linemaker, the morning line may also possibly reflect the linemaker's own opinion as to each horse's winning chances. In my opinion, however, the above practices are widely known and taken into account by the public. Speaking just for myself, the only thing that matters is my own assessment of each horse's chances (which does not consider the morning line odds at all) in comparison to the odds established by the public itself, and I would think that the percentage of total handle that is influenced (even peripherally) by the morning line is very, very small.