Favs at Santa Anita

[zerosky]

Just been reading the SA media guide which lists the percent
winning favourites from 1935.

It makes for intresting reading from about 1990 it seems like
more and more chalk is going in.

I have attached a graphic to this post to illustrate the point
Not sure if will show as this is the first attachement I've attempted.

zerosky

[stu]

I don't know how combersome it was for you to create but would love to see this graphical presentation again whenever the muse motivates you.

[kenwoodallpromos]

You show the graph on an upward trend in 2001 but the year byt year stata on page 26 shows since then the % has been about 33-35%.

[zerosky]

Originally Posted by kenwoodallpromos

You show the graph on an upward trend in 2001 but the year byt year stata on page 26 shows since then the % has been about 33-35%.

Its possible I made an error but I've just checked and it looks ok.
these are the numbers since 1999 (chart done with excel)

1999-2000 33.8%
2000-2001 35.1%
2001-2002 33.9%
2002-2003 36.5%
2003-2004 37.6%
2005-2006 37.0%

Link to document...
http://www.santaanita.com/news/mg/mg2.pdf

Rgds

zerosky

[kenwoodallpromos]

Originally Posted by kenwoodallpromos

You show the graph on an upward trend in 2001 but the year by year statas on page 26 shows since then the % has been about 33-35%.

Here are the most recent stats for ending years:
2003 36.8%; 2004 37.6%; 2006 37.0%; 2007 34.2%.
As a matter of fact, the year 2004-2005 is missing.
The average for all year many decades has been in the 34%+, so last year was just average, back to normal.
I find it very interesting that through the decades there are not long runs of very high or low fav %. I doubt they could have planned any better for the % to correct itself instead of recent speed handicapping advancements for example causing the fav % to go to the 40% mark or even stay above 36% for an extended period.
Of course, the racing secretaries at all racetracks are supposed to set race conditions to level the playing field by weight, NW, and recency of last win or 2!
I would like to see a study of how race conditions changed over the decades- I believe at least in Ca allowances are getting fewer and fewer.

[zerosky]

as it happens there is one small adjustment to be made I did not
include last years figures 2006-2007 34.18%

I could repost if required but its only one figure, although it does cause the
5 year mov avg figure to level out.

[zerosky]

Originally Posted by kenwoodallpromos

Here are the most recent stats for ending years:
2003 36.8%; 2004 37.6%; 2006 37.0%; 2007 34.2%.
As a matter of fact, the year 2004-2005 is missing.
The average for all year many decades has been in the 34%+, so last year was just average, back to normal.

viz the missing data, you've got a good eye.
in fact the pdf promo has two missing years 2004-2005 and 1998-1999
if you have those figures to hand I will amend the darn thing

I should have checked more closely,you are correct also about the
long term average 'regressing to mean'

rgds

zerosky

[kenwoodallpromos]

1 stat in the guide that stope dead in its' tracks is atakes winners carrying 130+ pounds- many from the 1950's to 1970's, last was John Henry 1982.
I also find it interesting that os the dozens of track records set on various surfaces at various distances, only 4 were carrying over 123 pounds- Spectacular Bid twice (126), and 2 horses on artificial track (124)!!

[plainolebill]

Smaller field sizes could account for a greater percentage of winning favorites - less opportunity for error on the part of the bettors and greater chance for a clean trip.