Worst Kentucky Derby Wager

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

No matter how good a handicapper is, ... when someone tries to handicap because of the race being an event (as opposed to patiently waiting for a race where you have a edge), the math is going to be a negative value. A losing situation.

One of my favorite quotes about gambling comes from a consultant I spoke to who worked high up in one of the sports books in Las Vegas. He told me "if you bet the Super Bowl, you are a losing player".

Of course, he did not mean that completely literally, but I found it to be quite profound as a statement about why gamblers lose.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

One of my favorite quotes about gambling comes from a consultant I spoke to who worked high up in one of the sports books in Las Vegas. He told me "if you bet the Super Bowl, you are a losing player".

Of course, he did not mean that completely literally, but I found it to be quite profound as a statement about why gamblers lose.

That's a funny one.

[CheckMark]

This is more of a bad beat

Maximum Security winning the Derby. I had Win/Place I believe that day and also cashed or at least would have cashed the Oaks/Derby double.

You know what happened after: Disqualification and tossed from the win spot.

[IamNewt]

For embarrassment I think I take the cake.

2022 Derby Day

Keyed in the P4 (last leg Derby) and late P5 (middle leg Derby) wagers early in the day. In both I went ALL with the Derby. Total for both wagers $40.

Got killed early and backed out 8 horses from Derby field. New wagers $28.

Cue Rich Strike

P4 $25K
P5 $100K

Me, nada.

[bisket]

Lol there has been more than one, but like someone earlier mentioned Arch Arch Arch in the 1 hole. When I let a friend know that’s who I liked. He said, “You know the 1 hole is inside the rail. He’ll have get at least one path to the right after the break”. In one ear out the other…

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by IamNewt

For embarrassment I think I take the cake.

2022 Derby Day

Keyed in the P4 (last leg Derby) and late P5 (middle leg Derby) wagers early in the day. In both I went ALL with the Derby. Total for both wagers $40.

Got killed early and backed out 8 horses from Derby field. New wagers $28.

Cue Rich Strike

P4 $25K
P5 $100K

Me, nada.

Brutal brutal game sometimes. Ouch.

[JustRalph]

Played 2 dollar exacta all/field the year Mine that bird won.

Lost a couple hundred on other bets shooting for a longshots

Should have put it all into the all/field bet…….

I think I got back a couple hundred……to get close to even for the race, but if you think it’s a toss up…..play it that way.

I still have my winning tickets from this years Derby……I think they are worth about 6 hundred…..haven’t been back to the track to cash them yet.

[IamNewt]

Went into my account to make myself sick again.

May 7 2:57:13 PM Complete Churchill Downs 9 Pick-4 $0.50 4,9/3/10/1,3,5-7,9,10,12,13,15,16,18 $12.00 - -$12.00

May 7 4:05:44 PM Complete Churchill Downs 10 Pick-5 $0.50 3/10/1,3,6,7,9,10,12,13/6/7,11 $8.00 - -$8.00

I mis-spoke. I halved the original $40 to $20.

Ain't I brilliant?!

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Bloodhorse.com | Release Date: March 28, 2023
Forte Favored in Pool 6 of Kentucky Derby Future Wager:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...y-future-wager




FUTURE WAGER GENERAL RULES:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...%201_Rules.pdf



I didn't put any money into this year's futures pools.

At 5-2 I think Forte has to be up there near the top of the list (at least this year.)


-jp

.

I always thought those future pools were parimutuel. what happened to all that FORTE money that got scratched? he was the favorite and it might have been $millions of dollars.

[rastajenk]

It made Mage wagerers say quietly, to themselves, "sorry about your luck."

[Pigpen]

Demons Begone in the late 80s. He won the Arky Derby and I thought he was a super horse. Had $50 to win and I think he was like 2-1 in the KD. Dumb wager.

[rastajenk]

He bled badly, seems to me; unless I'm thinking of another favorite from that era. Can't blame yourself for that.

[Dave Schwartz]

My only Derby Future bet...

Copied from this old PA post

This was a long time ago, so if you don't know who Mr. Frisky was, here is a link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mister_Frisky

This story is a little anti-climactic because everyone knows Frisky did not win the Derby but I think it is still a good story.

BTW, I think it is more fun for me to write this story from memory so I did not check any of my facts. LOL - For all I know I got the whole thing wrong and should be checked into a facility ASAP.

Thinking back on this, I might actually have told this story here before. LOL - So, for those who want to check if I am consistent, go searching. (I can never find anything when I search.)

Here's the story:

I did a small piece of computer work for a friend as a favor and he insisted on paying me $50. I refused and we actually argued about it. Finally, he suggested that we have some fun with the $50.

The deal was that one of us would get to make a bet with the $50. If we won, the entire balance would be handed to the other guy to make a bet. I am not sure who went first, but we were out there looking for "sure things" to the point where after we had won like 6 bets in a row, the bankroll was about $75 or so. LOL $2.40 would have been a big payoff.

As I recall (and my memory might be faulty here) we made a bet on Willie Shoemaker's last ride. (Was it Patchy Groundfog, maybe?) It was my bet and I bet him to show. LOL - He was in the race down the stretch (I swear they were trying to give him the race) and when he saw he wasn't going to win, he gave up, taking the horse from 1st to 3rd, so we cashed again.

We won another couple of bets and then my friend, Stewart, has another bright idea. He had been following Mr. Frisky and really liked him. So now we've got (as I recall) like $120. Stewart's idea is to bet half of the money on Frisky in his next start and the rest in the future book. The plan is to continue this pattern in each of his future races: 1/2 on the nose to win, and the other half in the future book.

I think the next start was at Santa Anita and we got (as I recall) 7/2. Pumped the BR and we got down on Frisky at 8/1.

So, Frisky kept winning, and we kept buying these future tickets. We took his last win and put all the money on him at (guess here) like 3/1 in the future book.

On the day of the Derby we are holding some crazy amount of these tickets at varying prices. I believe if Frisky wins we cash like $7,000.

But we have a problem. You see, we have come to the conclusion that Frisky has absolutely no chance to win the Derby.

We agonized over this for several days. We considered kicking in with say $1,000 each and dutching a bunch of horses, but the problem was we really did not have a clue who was going to win. I think when we got to picking contenders that between us we had like 7 horses. (Special note: Did not include the eventual winner, whoever that was.)

We also considered trying to sell the tickets at the MGM where we were going to watch the Derby live but the thought of selling them for (say) $500 and watching him win was just too much to bear.

So, we watched the race in silence. As I recall he went off as the favorite, went for the lead and was done relatively early, finishing way back in the pack.


We went for a hot dog.

End of story.

[rastajenk]

Patchy Groundfog is correct; that's one of those pieces of trivia that has stuck with me for 30 years.

And I remember Mr. Frisky: was he undefeated going to Louisville, with nothing but 1's in his running lines?

Good story.

[Brass Hat]

Stately Victor, the 2010 Blue Grass winner on synthetic. I was convinced he would run a good race on dirt and I think this was the most I ever bet on a Derby horse.

To make matters worse, as we were watching the race my born-again Christian brother and wife, who think gambling is evil, visited us and walked in while the race was going on, and were witness to un-Christian-like language at the end of the race.

Maybe they are right.