Worst Kentucky Derby Wager

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

We've all had plenty.

I was at the 2009 Derby when Mine That Bird won. I had the wrong bird in Summer Bird, and they were both 50/1

Got paid later in the Belmont

My worst was undoubtedly Intense Holiday in 2014. Man did I really like that horse.

[elhelmete]

Dullahan in 2012. I have a connection to the breeders' family and they said he was training fantastic on dirt so I bit. He did run well, but alas.

[dilanesp]

I bet Capote in 1987. That was pretty bad.

[classhandicapper]

Cure The Blues

[PhantomOnTour]

Gemologist is one of many Derby disasters for me

[ScottJ]

Back-to-back years, my top choice drew the rail with the old (split) gate.

In 2010, it was the well backed (6.3-1 favorite) Lookin at Lucky in a great performance all things considered.

In 2011, I went back to the rail with Archarcharch (12.3-1) who was seriously injured in the race though completed the 10 furlongs valiantly.

Since those two races, I have been a very strong advocate of a 14-horse gate maximum despite the 20 horse gate that was bought for the race.

Worth redboarding my best Derby ever was the 2006 edition with Barbaro (6.1-1) who I loved in the race. More importantly, I also loved Bluegrass Cat (30.0-1) completing a $587.00 exacta. Was so engaged with cheering for Barbaro that I did not realize I caught the exacta until the results were posted.

[biggestal99]

arazi the wonder horse who was not…in the derby.

yikes. fell for the he loves CD hype.

Allan

[porchy44]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Gemologist is one of many Derby disasters for me

Seems like anything coming out of the Wood Memorial this century.

[BarchCapper]

Worst Kentucky Derby wagers?

Two recent ones where I actually cashed. I bet both Authentic and Medina Spirit because I wanted some reason to be pleased with otherwise distasteful (to me) results.

[Inner Dirt]

Mister Frisky, if my memory serves me correctly, he went off at 9-5. I had him at 75-1 betting a future after he won his first US start. It obviously wasn't a bad $100 bet, it was all the excitement and the extreme let down that sucked.

[Jeff P]

Bloodhorse.com | Release Date: March 28, 2023
Forte Favored in Pool 6 of Kentucky Derby Future Wager:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...y-future-wager

The final pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is set to make its three-day run March 30-April 1, with Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable's Forte tabbed as the solid 5-2 favorite in the field of 39 individual horses plus a 40th option for "All Other 3-Year-Olds" not listed.

FUTURE WAGER GENERAL RULES:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...%201_Rules.pdf

No refunds will be issued. All wagers are final once the patron has left the window. Career-ending injuries, death and failure to start are not subject to refunds. If any betting interest is scratched, declared a non-starter or otherwise officially withdrawn or not entered in the event on which a Futures Pool is based, there will be no refund of monies wagered on that betting interest.

I didn't put any money into this year's futures pools.

At 5-2 I think Forte has to be up there near the top of the list (at least this year.)


-jp

.

[SG4]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

I didn't put any money into this year's futures pools.

At 5-2 I think Forte has to be up there near the top of the list (at least this year.)


-jp

.

I thought this entire thread was going to be about the 11-1 future odds on Hoosier Philly as the second choice in the February pool.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Bloodhorse.com | Release Date: March 28, 2023
Forte Favored in Pool 6 of Kentucky Derby Future Wager:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...y-future-wager




FUTURE WAGER GENERAL RULES:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...%201_Rules.pdf



I didn't put any money into this year's futures pools.

At 5-2 I think Forte has to be up there near the top of the list (at least this year.)


-jp

.

Yes. Definitely in the discussion.

And parlay that opinion - the 'Preakness Future'? thing, this year, for the same horse.

If I understand what I skimmed, and read on various tweets correctly, he was 4-1!? in 'Preakness futures? I mean, maybe it 'sounds' semi fair to a casual fan of Forte or whatever, but a latent payout wager, on a two-race affair, where you don't really beat parlay even if he first Wins the Derby and enters the Preakness in stride as the chalk?

I didn't participate in that pool (now noticing Tapit Trice as pretty much just as awful tepid price 6-1 ! )

I'm having bonehead moment just getting an understanding around how the odds even make sense. Is the takeout really insane, or just a bad format, etc... "Mage" was 30-1? ... I mean even a laser guided missile like correctly singling Mage... How does that work in a parlay 15-1, and even money and it's still only ~30-1, and doesn't account for whether he misses the race.

Personally, I don't have to look far for 'Worst' knucklehead Derby wagers.

Yes I am impressed about how social media has this freakish talent pool where many horseplayers bat 1.000, and these wonderful 'IQ' discussions go on where everyone in the thread is self-reported 140+, yet I'm delusional enough to make terrible bets all...the...time .

From knowing Tapit Trice was extremely likely to be out of the Exacta this year at his 2nd-choice price, and knowing Angel of Empire was highly competitive, that alone is enough puzzle pieces to hold your own, and I still was pretty awful this year, (in addition to the misses on the AoE exactas, +others, also had Two Phils more of a 'B' than an 'A', and somehow my usually solid Florida prep understanding was bad enough to dismiss the obviously somewhat talented Mage with things like a the FOY trip basically not connecting to brain cells)...

or 2022 when I had Oaks / Derby tix w/ Crown Pride and Summer is Tomorrow, - the later because of belief of a pace impact, yet in spite of what I felt was a fast pace with an underrated leader, I never even considered to use plodders like Barber Road or Rich Strike under a relatively clean and simple Oaks '22.

Twitter

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 05-24-2023 at 05:34 AM.

[Inner Dirt]

I stopped betting the Derby about a dozen years ago. I scanned the list of winners from 1980-2010, and I believe I had 3 or 4 of them and none paid a good price.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

I stopped betting the Derby about a dozen years ago. I scanned the list of winners from 1980-2010, and I believe I had 3 or 4 of them and none paid a good price.

No matter how good a handicapper is, ... when someone tries to handicap because of the race being an event (as opposed to patiently waiting for a race where you have a edge), the math is going to be a negative value. A losing situation.