Using two handicapping methods

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If class is speed, and speed is class...why do the horses run improving speed figures when dropping in class, and declining speed figures when rising in class?

Good questions. Class and speed blurs a bit when trainer's intent and form, and a whole host of other factors come into play. The "improving" horse encounters an unfavorable pace when moving up in "class", spits the bit, and folds like a cheap tortilla with a poor fig. The horse dropping may have darkened form, and the trainer knows he/she is shooting fish in a barrel, and has the horse cranked up for a win, with a higher fig.

It's easy.

The underlying assumption that many horseplayers make, and IMHO incorrectly, is that speed figures and class are static and repeatable, or at least change slowly. They are not.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If class is speed, and speed is class...why do the horses run improving speed figures when dropping in class, and declining speed figures when rising in class?

there is a clear progression, that as the class rises, so too do the speeds.
that does not mean that there are not races that are the exception, for whatever reason.
fast pace, horses that are better than the class they are currently running in, lots of reason.

i would argue too, that they don't improve in speed when dropping in class in most instances.

if class is not speed, then what is it?
if speed is not class then what is it?

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Good questions. Class and speed blurs a bit when trainer's intent and form, and a whole host of other factors come into play. The "improving" horse encounters an unfavorable pace when moving up in "class", spits the bit, and folds like a cheap tortilla with a poor fig. The horse dropping may have darkened form, and the trainer knows he/she is shooting fish in a barrel, and has the horse cranked up for a win, with a higher fig.

It's easy.

The underlying assumption that many horseplayers make, and IMHO incorrectly, is that speed figures and class are static and repeatable, or at least change slowly. They are not.

trainer intent, form, and a whole host of other factors are noise.
not seeing the forest for the trees type of thing.
racing is noise, but you have baselines to try and make sense of that noise.
you don't have the expectation that everything is going to be on that baseline.
so when i say speed is class, it is with the knowledge that speed is for THAT PARTICULAR race, and class is for that type of race on AVERAGE.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by steveb

i would argue too, that they don't improve in speed when dropping in class in most instances.

if class is not speed, then what is it?
if speed is not class then what is it?

If you and I entered into a wager on this matter, then I am very confident that you would lose. In this country at least, most of the horses record higher speed ratings when they drop in class. And they run lesser speed ratings when they rise in class.

It may be entirely a function of trainer intention, I don't know. I've seen exceptions to this rule where horses step up sharply in class and repeat the strong performances that they have posted in the lesser class levels. But in the vast majority of the cases, the horse that rises in class runs slower...and is often drubbed. And when it is next dropped to its previous class level, the horse somehow returns to its winning ways.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Good questions. Class and speed blurs a bit when trainer's intent and form, and a whole host of other factors come into play. The "improving" horse encounters an unfavorable pace when moving up in "class", spits the bit, and folds like a cheap tortilla with a poor fig. The horse dropping may have darkened form, and the trainer knows he/she is shooting fish in a barrel, and has the horse cranked up for a win, with a higher fig.

It's easy.

The underlying assumption that many horseplayers make, and IMHO incorrectly, is that speed figures and class are static and repeatable, or at least change slowly. They are not.

I don't believe that the "improving" horse loses when it is raised in class because it faces an 'unfavorable pace' in the "classier" race. In many of the races that I see, a frontrunner who has gone wire to wire in a lesser race rises in class and still figures to set the pace in the "classier" race, but for some reason the horse is unable to run the same early fractions that it ran in its prior "cheaper" race, and it's well beaten.

I honestly feel that this is a result of trainer intention. The trainer feels that the horse is incapable of winning the "classier" race, and enters the horse solely for "conditioning" purposes. That's what I find amusing about the "class" factor. It matters...even if it exists only in the trainer's mind.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If you and I entered into a wager on this matter, then I am very confident that you would lose. In this country at least, most of the horses record higher speed ratings when they drop in class. And they run lesser speed ratings when they rise in class.

It may be entirely a function of trainer intention, I don't know. I've seen exceptions to this rule where horses step up sharply in class and repeat the strong performances that they have posted in the lesser class levels. But in the vast majority of the cases, the horse that rises in class runs slower...and is often drubbed. And when it is next dropped to its previous class level, the horse somehow returns to its winning ways.

it won't happen for the simple reason that we will do it differently.
country IS irrelevant, all you need is clean data, and the required fields in that data.
i have no idea how YOU would do it, but I KNOW that for how i do it, that is EXACTLY what WILL happen.

did you even look at that graphic i posted?
did you understand what it was doing?

the weird thing is that i have been doing it for 40 years now, and still i get told it won't work.
i used to get paid to do it, now i just do it because i can, and quickly too.

[Tom]

Class is potential and speed is a result.

Was Rich Strike the classiest horse in the Derby, or was he the fastest due to too fast pace? Is a hoese's class detetmined by other horse's pace figures?
Speed is dependent on pace, affected by trips, surface....

Suppose Beyer parsd for $25k claimers is 80-85 and $30k claimers is 83-88.
A good number of the $25k winners will do so faster than a good numver of the $30k winners. For a group, class is speed, but individual horses may not know this.

At NYRA, Alw n1x are faster as a group than Alw50000 and on average faster,
But given a horse who has run several times and not won in the starterk I mat well bet a dropper who showed some early pace in the n1x and faded, running lower speed figs.

As to the idea of using two methods, if you are playingg P5s, iy sounds like a good plan. In a wide open race, you may use the best speed, the class dropper, thetrainer angle, and the hot rider.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If class is speed, and speed is class...why do the horses run improving speed figures when dropping in class, and declining speed figures when rising in class?

Speed figures measure how fast a horse ran given a specific set of conditions (pace, competitive nature of the race, quality of the other horses, how the track surface was playing, trip etc..)

Class is all of a horse's underlying tangible and less tangible abilities expressed as one

1. How fast he can run at top speed
2. How quickly he can accelerate
3. How much stamina he has
4. How long he can sustain at or close to top speed before cracking
5. How well he handles the pressure of other horses battling with him
6. How adaptive he is to various pace scenarios
7. How well he handles deep or hard surfaces
8. How willing he is to fight for the lead when tired
9. How fast he is out of the gate
10. etc

As you move up and down in class, you face progressively weaker or stronger opposition. So the demands of the race "tend" (not always) to get correspondingly weaker or stronger. Those conditions are part of what impacts the times.

What the class handicapper is trying to do is get past just the final times to the underlying ability of the horses. They will be closely correlated, which is why speed figures work so well. But class is more comprehensive, albeit more difficult to measure, especially when it comes to lightly raced horses that have not been tested yet. You don't know what a horse has in reserve until it's required. Some will wilt chasing horses quicker out of the gate and equally fast or faster and some will reveal they had more pure speed and ability to carry the battle further than they showed to that point.

(and of course, class/ability is not static. it changes)

IMO there are NO really good books on class. There are chapters in books that are nonsensical, chapters that highlight techniques for measuring it that are not good, and occasional solid insights, but no one has put it all together like Andy Beyer and others did for measuring final time.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, the best book on the subject is probably Quinn's "Class Handicapping". I'm not even sure that book is around anymore. I wouldn't use the system in it, but the insights are good. I think Tom and I have discussed that book in the past.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO, the best book on the subject is probably Quinn's "Class Handicapping". I'm not even sure that book is around anymore. I wouldn't use the system in it, but the insights are good. I think Tom and I have discussed that book in the past.

It's called "Class of the Field" by James Quinn.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by steveb

trainer intent, form, and a whole host of other factors are noise.
not seeing the forest for the trees type of thing.
racing is noise, but you have baselines to try and make sense of that noise.
you don't have the expectation that everything is going to be on that baseline.
so when i say speed is class, it is with the knowledge that speed is for THAT PARTICULAR race, and class is for that type of race on AVERAGE.

I would agree that the "country" or venue certainly impacts which variables are noise, and which are critical to analyze. Your example screenshots above point to the Hong Kong circuit, which is about the only one in this galaxy where "standard" times are referenced - due to the consistency of two racing tracks with a half dozen courses, and the consistency of the horse population and other factors making the HK closed system unique. Because of that "form control" imposed by the Jockey Club, it allows for a far more accurate set of "class" and/or "speed" values to be determined for each horse.

Even has detailed as Beyers or the sheets are for U.S. tracks, the horses competing still display a much higher standard deviation of performance between races than racing circuits elsewhere, making class and speed more elusive. The drugging factor doesn't help either. Without bookies or fixed price wagering, darkening a horse's form to cash bigger bets has also been historically how the smaller barns get by - which is why I think trainer's/connection's intent is so important. Only in the top level of racing on the biggest days (KY Derby or Breeder's Cup) is the punter assured every horse is trying, at least IMHO.

Surely you take other factors into account besides race time compared to standard when evaluating a horse's speed/class rating? Trip? Bias? Jockey changes?

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don't believe that the "improving" horse loses when it is raised in class because it faces an 'unfavorable pace' in the "classier" race. In many of the races that I see, a frontrunner who has gone wire to wire in a lesser race rises in class and still figures to set the pace in the "classier" race, but for some reason the horse is unable to run the same early fractions that it ran in its prior "cheaper" race, and it's well beaten.

I honestly feel that this is a result of trainer intention. The trainer feels that the horse is incapable of winning the "classier" race, and enters the horse solely for "conditioning" purposes. That's what I find amusing about the "class" factor. It matters...even if it exists only in the trainer's mind.

Class ratings here in North America are pretty crude, and weight/handicaps assigned are not important compared to some of the circuits overseas. Some of the cheap horses go in and out of form during a race, let alone race by race, so how can anyone accurately assign class to that animal?

I would agree that trainer intent is extremely important when a trainer moves a horse up or down in class. The "loose on the lead" front runner is often a bad bet, but I've seen many of them moving up in class either bounce, not get the lead, or not able to repeat the performance due to track bias. Trainer intent surely comes into play as well, with the old boat ride if things don't go well early.

Like I wrote earlier, it's easy (though I forgot the /sarc hashtag last time).

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by steveb

trainer intent, form, and a whole host of other factors are noise.
not seeing the forest for the trees type of thing.
racing is noise, but you have baselines to try and make sense of that noise.
you don't have the expectation that everything is going to be on that baseline.
so when i say speed is class, it is with the knowledge that speed is for THAT PARTICULAR race, and class is for that type of race on AVERAGE.

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

I would agree that the "country" or venue certainly impacts which variables are noise, and which are critical to analyze. Your example screenshots above point to the Hong Kong circuit, which is about the only one in this galaxy where "standard" times are referenced - due to the consistency of two racing tracks with a half dozen courses, and the consistency of the horse population and other factors making the HK closed system unique. Because of that "form control" imposed by the Jockey Club, it allows for a far more accurate set of "class" and/or "speed" values to be determined for each horse.

Both comments are very nicely stated and right on target!
.
.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

I would agree that the "country" or venue certainly impacts which variables are noise, and which are critical to analyze. Your example screenshots above point to the Hong Kong circuit, which is about the only one in this galaxy where "standard" times are referenced - due to the consistency of two racing tracks with a half dozen courses, and the consistency of the horse population and other factors making the HK closed system unique. Because of that "form control" imposed by the Jockey Club, it allows for a far more accurate set of "class" and/or "speed" values to be determined for each horse.

Even has detailed as Beyers or the sheets are for U.S. tracks, the horses competing still display a much higher standard deviation of performance between races than racing circuits elsewhere, making class and speed more elusive. The drugging factor doesn't help either. Without bookies or fixed price wagering, darkening a horse's form to cash bigger bets has also been historically how the smaller barns get by - which is why I think trainer's/connection's intent is so important. Only in the top level of racing on the biggest days (KY Derby or Breeder's Cup) is the punter assured every horse is trying, at least IMHO.

Surely you take other factors into account besides race time compared to standard when evaluating a horse's speed/class rating? Trip? Bias? Jockey changes?

all that graphic was doing was showing baselines, for class and standard times.
non subjective.
all the other stuff would be subjective, which is another topic

hong kong is simple, but i have done same for many jurisdictions.
other places are more complex in so far as their class systems go, but just as easy to figure.
you might group jurisdiction 'a' with 'b' and then 'b' with 'c', which helps line all the places up.
they are also not constants, insofar as you need to keep track of any changes.
but because it is so quick, i can check places as often as i like to track those changes.
but at the end of the day, it's only enabling me to find race and horse speeds.
i don't think i've ever said it's all you need as far as picking winners go.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, if you want to learn about “class”, it’s best to focus on Graded Stakes races. In races like that you only rarely have to deal with trainer intent and also don’t have to deal with variations of form as much because the horses are typically all fit and training consistently.

Graded Stakes is where you will see the physiological and less tangible differences that separate horses that look similar on speed figures.

The very best horses have deeper reserves of energy that allow them to battle through mild track biases, tougher paces, wide trips etc… and still get the job done. They’ll show that have an extra 1/5th or 2/5ths in the tank if that’s what it takes to get the job done.

Cheaper horses will wilt when faced with the same tougher conditions.

But as a said previously, with the very lightly raced high quality horses, you don’t know what’s in the tank until the horse is asked for more.

Class is a lot of things, but it’s mostly physiological reserve speed and energy that allows the horse to perform well under tougher more demanding conditions and still win.