Forte now out

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Not gonna pull my hair out over this one I was trying to beat (like many others), but it's a lot of money redistributing in the pools. Looks like Two Phils is taking his share of that.

Just when I was about to concede including in some savers. Every time I revise my wagers, someone else drops out...

Phils last race was effortlessly impressive. just watching it makes you want to use him in the kd. sadly, I have to keep telling myself it doesn't count that much.

tt and mage were 1/2 on my ticket. but forte figured prominently. I don't know what I'm doing underneath now. I could still use 10 horses for 3rd..and now the chance are greater that maybe one of them gets up for 2nd

[Michael]

I emailed them to you Paul

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

I don't know what I'm doing underneath now. I could still use 10 horses for 3rd..and now the chance are greater that maybe one of them gets up for 2nd

I get it. Check out my caveman trifecta ticket in the picks thread.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by Michael

I emailed them to you Paul

Yup, got the screen shot. I guess I wasn't too clear on my post. I don't doubt that the connections around the track knew Forte would be scratched.

What I doubt is whether or not the 14-14 double was "abnormally low".

Looking at the other double probables, you can see with other Oaks horses beside the winning 14, that Forte is the chalk in the second half of the double for at least the 1,3,5,6,7, 8, 9, 10, 12 and 13 in the Oaks. Angel is chalk with the 2,4,11, and 14 winning the Oaks.

So now we just have to figure out how much the payoffs for each combo was affected by the sharps that knew Forte was out, vs. the squares that didn't know that.

Versus of course the potential of knowing Pretty Mischievous was a cinch in the Oaks, and a cold 14-15 double would get a consolation payoff.....Hmmmm....

[Robert Fischer]

Forte before scratches was (in terms of Value) lot like Angel of Empire. Both horses were one of the four or five good horses with a real chance at winning outright. Forte maybe slightly more likely. On his good days Forte has a little bit more physical talent and if he was given a hard nosed all-in ride, I could see Forte even legitimately better than the other 3 or 4 fairly equal contenders.

Both figured to be way overbet but Angel of Empire figured to be 6/1 or whatever while Forte around 9/2.

Now without Forte in the field it changes it up a little, in that Angel of Empire will probably be favored, so AoE is now after scratches even more overbet.
Verifying is outright slightly better than Angel of Empire. Better body of work. Last race, Verifying out-performed Tapit Trice and most fans love Tapit Trice.
Both Verifying and Angel of Emire are one of the four or five good horses that can win outright, but the other reasons they come to mind in comparison is that AoE is now the biggest underlay in the group, and they come to mein both have the same trainer.

While you wanted to lean against both when possible or when it made sense, both were underlays but not stone cold, known exacta 'Tosses'. You tossed for value, not because you thought they couldn't finish in the exacta. If you had a big overlay in the other position, you'd use them on some tix.

I call those "reluctant include".... in a perfect world, unless you are churning volume, you'd never use them without a huge price accompaniment. In the real world you use them occasionally and aren't always long-term banrkollin' it and would use a short term hit% boosting inclusion.

Now you just have one of those to worry about. (Angel of Empire)

Tapit Trice (is he the quietest 2nd choice in recent memory?) You had people loving him up for being grey and crushing easy competition initially, and then you had that reinforced with legitimate applause when he ran that relatively good and improved race in the Bluegrass.

*(I've said why I still don't like Tapit Trice in the Derby - even when hard-hustled like in the Bluegrass, he still had to progress during the running. Even if he did a really nice job of it in the Toyota Bluegrass (is **Corolla one of the best cars ever or what??), that's not as workable in the Kentucky Derby. Faster pace early and mid. Better horses. More competitive environment. Essential Quality comes to mind as a horse I assessed as at least 'somewhat' better than Tapit Trice at this point in their career,(that's being generous to TT in case I am more biased than I can even notice - I am biased against TT but I'm already allowing for it in my appraisal) EQ comes to mind in that he attempted to progress in the Kentucky Derby whether you call that a middle move or long drive or 'grinding style' whatever... EQ was damn good, and he did a nice job of it in his Derby and he only got 3rd or 4th I don't remember.
More competitive race because of the 3 or 4 good horses that can win outright (of which Tapit Trice is not a member) combined with Tapit Trice being 'somewhat' worse than Essential Quality. If it's a bad strategy for EQ it's not a free ride for Tapdat Tree Time. It's hard to move up on the backstretch or make a constant grind without settling in the Derby.
Tapit Trice got some traffic on the rail early in the Bluegrass. It was a very good 'relentless' effort, just not one that translates into Derblish or Derbanese. )


POLITICS IN THE R0ACING SECTION - TUCKER CARLSON SAYS THAT FORTE 'HAD' TO BE SCRATCHED AFTER SAFFIE JOSEPH'S TRAGIC RECENT DEATHS HAD DARKENED OPTICS AND ENVIGORATED ANIMAL RIGHTS' ROUSERS, GIVEN FORTE'S MISSTEP/STUMBLE OR TWO THAT WAS FILMED AND TWEETED AFTER FORTE'S RECENT GALLOPS.

*parenthesis abuse
** on hot day a Mint Julep is one of the most refreshing things in the world. There's nothing that compares to breaking out an old-school paper copy of the daily racing form and having a small glass of Old Forester Bourbon while handicap the night before.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Verifying is outright slightly better than Angel of Empire. Better body of work.

Verifying has never won a race of consequence & he's had plenty of chances to do it. Angel of Empire won 2 major Derby preps & owns two wins at 9f.

Last race, Verifying out-performed Tapit Trice and most fans love Tapit Trice.

Did Verifying really out-perform Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass? He had a fairly clean trip, first run on the favorite, and still couldn't deliver.

Tapit Trice, as you stated, didn't have a great trip, in fact was sawed off on the first turn & still came and tagged Verifying. The effort probably doesn't elevate him to Derby winner necessarily, but it shows he can overcome some traffic & more importantly reflects poorly on Verifying having not been able to capitalize.

[horses4courses]

I make it around an even money chance.

Let's face it, the horse is already worth a fortune as a stallion.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Verifying has never won a race of consequence & he's had plenty of chances to do it. Angel of Empire won 2 major Derby preps & owns two wins at 9f.


Did Verifying really out-perform Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass? He had a fairly clean trip, first run on the favorite, and still couldn't deliver.

Tapit Trice, as you stated, didn't have a great trip, in fact was sawed off on the first turn & still came and tagged Verifying. The effort probably doesn't elevate him to Derby winner necessarily, but it shows he can overcome some traffic & more importantly reflects poorly on Verifying having not been able to capitalize.

his take is so awful i couldn't even respond to it.

[SilverAlley]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Pletcher is having a tough week.

I hope he isn't in danger of missing his next meal.

[Aerocraft67]

Oh man. Y'all better stop before you put in the winner's circle. He's not on my tickets, but at 15-1 and enough speed to get up front and out of trouble and no speedball to duel him into oblivion, I'm not talking anybody off him.

The favorite is, well, the favorite. He's fairly valued at 9-2 according to Aragona at DRF. But now he's bet down to 4-1. Referencing Aragona because he picked the horse on top and has a thorough odds and value line posted.

Don't tell anyone, but he's got 22 Mandarin Hero a huge overlay at fifth fair odds—he's currently 10th choice. He was my fourth half choice on top of trifectas—I think I'll go back and add him to the other half.

[JustRalph]

What the hell happens to my tickets with him?

What happen to Pletcher saying he was fine?

[Jumpnthefire]

The only ppl who lie more than politicians are trainers

[Tom]

Two horses euthinized on today's card.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Verifying has never won a race of consequence & he's had plenty of chances to do it. Angel of Empire won 2 major Derby preps & owns two wins at 9f.

'accomplished' was a poor choice of words. Angel of Empire is the more accomplished, especially by traditional sense of the word.

Angel of Empire was slower to get rolling for team Cox, and when he did, he won a favorable flow Risen Star, where it wasn't completely clear if he did more running than Two Phil's.

I thought Angel of Empire was best in the Risen Star (as close as Two Phils was in terms of performance he was only a couple lengths in front of Angel of Empire for most of the race, and neither got demolished into the first turn. I thought Two Phils flattened a bit even upgrading slightly for the flow vs AoE.), but it was not an impressive race overall and far from a huge performance or a Derby favorite type of performance.

In the Arkansas Derby, Angel of Empire ran in my opinion his first race that looked G1/G2.
He got a good setup but he ran very well. It was a seductive stride, and there was no doubt entering the stretch.
I'm not a speed figure player (unless they are atrocious and he has a mediocre trainer) but his speed figure was up to a 115TimeformUS vs. a 108 in the Risen Star. Every TFUS fig has increased in each of his six races.

It was clear after the Arkansas Derby that in this Kentucky Derby with no standouts(Forte wasn't a standout in my opinion), that Angel of Empire was one of the four or 5 good horses.


Verifying is also a Brad Cox trainee so, like Angel of Empire you automatically give him a chance to be a 3yo graded stakes contender.

2yo wasn't even close (in Verifying's favor). 3yo Ran fine in the Rebel and then was best in the Blue Grass.

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Did Verifying really out-perform Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass? He had a fairly clean trip, first run on the favorite, and still couldn't deliver.

Tapit Trice, as you stated, didn't have a great trip, in fact was sawed off on the first turn & still came and tagged Verifying. The effort probably doesn't elevate him to Derby winner necessarily, but it shows he can overcome some traffic & more importantly reflects poorly on Verifying having not been able to capitalize.

Yes Verifying did more running having to run against the flow, and it came down to a half length difference.

Saez and Tapit Trice briefly thought about running through the backs of horses (in reality Saez was urging like crazy after the break until the first turn and had a lot of horse) and then after they came under control they were in a great position.

If you think that Tapit Trice is going to naturally break in forward position, then he deserves to be considered one of the four or five win contenders.

[davew]

Originally Posted by davew

If they knew Forte was going to be scratched, why would they NOT include him in DD as will get paid for sure if first leg correct?

$9.14 per $1 for consolation ticket on Oaks/Derby double with 14/15 (Forte)