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Old 05-11-2023, 06:04 PM   #166
dnlgfnk
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
IMO…the most important thing for the horseplayer to do is to avoid self-deception. We’ve all been in the game long enough to know where we stand, as far as “profitability” in the game is concerned. If we keep losing long-term and we keep fooling ourselves into believing that the “next idea” is the one that will turn us into the ‘winner’ that we envision ourselves to be…then we are asking for serious trouble.
I'm sure that's true. My "next idea" was in 1978, borrowed from others and is still the foundation. Guys like Benter have only helped me refine it. If nothing else in difficult times, again as Dave stated, I can be in it for the enjoyment which is enhanced when most outcomes make sense, even in retrospect.
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Old 05-11-2023, 10:45 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
IMO…the most important thing for the horseplayer to do is to avoid self-deception. We’ve all been in the game long enough to know where we stand, as far as “profitability” in the game is concerned. If we keep losing long-term and we keep fooling ourselves into believing that the “next idea” is the one that will turn us into the ‘winner’ that we envision ourselves to be…then we are asking for serious trouble.
I believe one of the major hurdles that traditional handicappers face which inevitably could cause their “self-deception” is being mentally locked into to specific methodologies. These tactics predictably can’t handle the fluctuation of all the variables within a diversity of race types and their conditions. Unfortunately, the scope of numerous approaches is limited at best. That’s only because they can’t account for many of the unknown factors involved when dealing with the flesh and blood aspects of the animals’ mental and physical condition at any given time.

The game and those physically participating can best be described as unique at any specific moment. Ultimately changing from one idea to another to satisfy that uniqueness would be akin to placing a band aid on a deep laceration. I believe that’s one of the reasons why many of the more successful players prefer to play within a specific niche that puts them in a more reasonable comfort zone based on past successful experiences. They have accepted the fact when handicapping that “one size (idea) does not fit all”.
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Old 05-12-2023, 04:35 AM   #168
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I believe one of the major hurdles that traditional handicappers face which inevitably could cause their “self-deception” is being mentally locked into to specific methodologies. These tactics predictably can’t handle the fluctuation of all the variables within a diversity of race types and their conditions. Unfortunately, the scope of numerous approaches is limited at best. That’s only because they can’t account for many of the unknown factors involved when dealing with the flesh and blood aspects of the animals’ mental and physical condition at any given time.

The game and those physically participating can best be described as unique at any specific moment. Ultimately changing from one idea to another to satisfy that uniqueness would be akin to placing a band aid on a deep laceration. I believe that’s one of the reasons why many of the more successful players prefer to play within a specific niche that puts them in a more reasonable comfort zone based on past successful experiences. They have accepted the fact when handicapping that “one size (idea) does not fit all”.


I don't believe there is a single person here who doesn't acknowledge the fact that "one size doesn't fit all". The problem is that this game is complicated enough to encourage the horseplayer to keep jumping from methodology to methodology, and from handicapping software to handicapping software...in an effort to avoid "being mentally locked into" any specific methodology. People jump from handicapping method to handicapping method, and even though they keep losing for years...more handicapping "systems" are still out there, so the jumping from method to method continues for a lot longer than perhaps it should. As the saying goes..."hope dies last". That's the "self-deception" that I am talking about.

Look...I don't much care for the person who views this game as a "challenging hobby", and shrugs off his acceptable losses as an "entertainment expense". I say that I don't care much for this sort of person because such a horseplayer needs no help from me, or from anybody else. This kind of horseplayer has accepted his losses, and probably lacks the will and the motivation to improve his game enough to even have a chance at profitability in this frustrating game. And, in the grand scheme of things...this person will probably end up happier than the rest of us, who have taken this game a lot more seriously than he has.

Nevertheless...the player that I care about most is the one who takes this game head on, and pays the heavy price that this game demands of the "serious player". Such a player may not have a lot of brains, but he has a lot of balls...and I like that. But there comes a time when the "serious player" must realize that he is beat, either because the game is too hard for him...or because his life's circumstances do not allow him to devote the sort of time to this game that it demands. Not to realize this could spell financial and emotional doom for the serious horseplayer...and that's the "self-deception" that I am talking about here. I've been in the gambling arena too long, and I've seen too much...and how I wish that I hadn't witnessed all the pain and the heartache that I have seen. And a lot of it has been my own.
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Old 05-12-2023, 10:36 AM   #169
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If we readily admit that the "public's" odds line is more accurate than our own...wouldn't it be wiser for us to look for another gambling game to get involved in?
I think we are admitting that neither the public's or our own lines are perfect all the time and that each can contain misunderstandings, bad data, or missing information at times.

I pass a lot of races. That's because I'm trying to limit myself to situations where I feel confident I know something about a horse that is not commonly understood.
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Old 05-13-2023, 08:38 AM   #170
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I think we are admitting that neither the public's or our own lines are perfect all the time and that each can contain misunderstandings, bad data, or missing information at times.

I pass a lot of races. That's because I'm trying to limit myself to situations where I feel confident I know something about a horse that is not commonly understood.
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I agree with Classhandicapper re "where I feel confident I know something about a horse that is not commonly understood". My approach to that is about deleting runs where the horse has not been at fault in defeats but moreso in running happenings or a lack of fitness or jockey error. It's the understanding of what is obvious when you look for it.
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Old 05-14-2023, 10:50 PM   #171
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If Benter wasn't a tote board watcher, but relied on handicapping instead...one has to wonder why Nitro is so enamored of him.
Sorry I missed this post and I certainly didn't want to disappoint you by not responding. I will just post another excerpt from Benter's report (below) as food for thought just for you. He didn't watch the entire tote board as I do, but he did eventually realize the significance of including the odds in his program. As a result, I would think that anyone who recognizes his abilities at making BIG money at this game would be impressed with his accomplishments. I certainly regard his observations as significantly more valuable than most of commentary I’ve ever read about this game.
Quote:
Bill Benter
Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

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Old 05-15-2023, 09:18 AM   #172
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Quote from Benter

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities
.
RKOZ replies: They always have. It is believed by many that Betfair is the same in races of reasonable liquidity. My studies on the odds at around 9am-10am shows the odds makers are very good here in OZ.

I must admit I look at horses who I think are a bit suspect on first looks but find their odds around half of what I believed they should be. I respect the millions the companies invest in the area. Money speaks many racing languages and this is one of them from my point of view.
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