Rebel Stakes

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

50 points on the line, and we may get our first legitimate Derby contender from this one that is stacked with some talented and expensive horse flesh.

An almost certain wet track has to be heavily considered in this one.

Verifying: ML favorite was a $775K purchase by Justify, runs in the Cox barn, and gets FloGeoux on board. With this post and the likely track conditions, there is little doubt they'll be sending to at least get into the race and not slugged down on the rail. Tough part is that there are upwards of 7 horses that have shown to be faster early thus far.

Powerful: Maiden voyage of 2023. With Nyquist on his top side, the thick or sloppy stuff should be okay for him. The real question is distance. His lone stretch out to 2 turns was abysmal. I'm struggling to look past his debut performances at Toga where he put up some solid numbers. Maybe needs one off the layoff, but could fire big as he has been working well. Interesting shot.

Red Route One: With 4 Graded Stakes races under his belt and every race at a mile or more, this is one of the most seasoned and figure-wise horses in the field. Wet track isn't a concern as he has 3 off track races to date with 2 strong finishes in 3 of those. Would love for a hot pace to develop, and he has shown kickback and an off-track won't deter him from passing others late. Major contender.

Gun Pilot: Hard to argue much with his 3(2-1-0) career thus far, but figs are a bit light. 10K Asmussen has his 'man' in Santana on board so a difficult one to kick or keep out of exotics. But that is exactly what I'm going to have to do in this deep field.

Giant Mischief: Nearly overcame a horrific start in the Springboard last out chasing them down late to keep his unbeaten record alive. Cox/Irad/Into Mischief and the best figs in the field. Working strong coming into his 2023 debut. This will be the post time favorite.

Reincarnate: Good Magic on top, Scat Daddy on bottom and a $775K purchase formerly in the Baffert barn. He'll be a part of the pace and his gate to wire win in the G3 Sham last out was a solid fig that puts him squarely into the meat of this field. Serious contender.

Confidence Game: Maybe the most confusing horse in the field for me. PPs and everything before says this one is full send and part of the pace. His lone 2 wins are gate to wire. However, in the G3 Lecomte last out, the early fractions took their toll on this one. Wouldn't be surprised if this one is taken back. Candy Ride genes aren't a bad thing on the off going.

Talladega: This $850K purchase hasn't lived up to expectations yet. Took 4 races to bust his maiden, and enters this one in a 3rd in cycle fashion. Figs and pace figures are very light. One that I'm simply gonna have to let beat me.

Event Detail: 3YOs getting better every time out are dangerous. Especially after breaking their maiden. Paulo Lobo is a very underrated trainer and brings his ace to ride in Corrales. Turfway has been a very tiring Tapeta track during their meet, and this guy showed he can front run or clip off horses late. Interesting entry that should be a massive price.

Bourbon Bash: Feels like every year we get a bomb or two in these KD preps that has gotten their brains beaten in by a bunch of rivals, and step up at massive odds when completely unexpected. Is this 'Coach' entry one of those? Already ran 8 races to date, and danced in some big dances. His 2023 debut against Gun Pilot was pretty good. Bullet works are interesting as well.

Frosted Departure: 10 races to date and the most experienced horse in the field. Also looks to be getting better, and his figs 'fit'. Gets a horrible post here, and is likely full send along with some others. Struggles to pass horses, so he has to be on or very near the lead early. Likely the entire key as to just how hot this pace will end up being.

[Bustin Stones]

My 2 cents, FWIW, I'm leaning toward the horse with the hot hand in Reincarnate. This should be a competitive race.

[Spalding No!]

Giant Mischief barely edged the subsequently exposed Arabian Lion in an overrated allowance win on the BC undercard. Then he lost at Remington Park. Bred to be a sprinter.

Reincarnate started his career on the turf in the Baffert barn.

Verifying was blitzed in both his attempts in graded stakes.

I wonder how Red Route One would have fared had Asmussen put him in the Risen Star considering the meltdown in that race. Another one that started his career on turf for a dirt-oriented barn. Wish he had some tactical speed.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I wonder how Red Route One would have fared had Asmussen put him in the Risen Star considering the meltdown in that race. Another one that started his career on turf for a dirt-oriented barn. Wish he had some tactical speed.

looks like a possible key underneath in exotics.

I'm of the opinion that you can in fact pick 3rd or 4th finishers if you know the game well enough.

Red should come running and hopefully peaks here. Lobo longshot 30/1 also interesting bottom exotics

I'm against Reincarnate for the exacta. Great looking physically. Last race was a sham.

[Aerocraft67]

Hot take based just on my first-degree review. Back later after reading OP, etc.

I like the here. Looks like pace sets up well for a midpack position that it can handle with Ortiz aboard. Stands out with in top TFUS fig.

But needs to battle three contenders for the top tier. Could work out a proper stalking trip, but just looks a little tougher up there than it's had so far, enhanced by some speed bias in last two.

I also like the . Just seems like the standout proper closer. / makes a fine exacta. Only problem is that's pretty obvious.

Not enthused about the . Will it really be favored? I think it can handle the pace, but it's projected for 6th early, not a position it's shown any penchant for. Solid, but not a fig standout.

Quite like the for a stalking trip at good odds.

Couldn't really toss any of the three projected for early speed, , , . I think the is most likely to stalk into a placing rather than burn out from hot pace.

plausible late running longshot to get a piece at a big price.

Toss ,

[Michael]

I don't think a single horse passed another horse in the first race. Mono Merry Go Round.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Michael

I don't think a single horse passed another horse in the first race. Mono Merry Go Round.

The Icarus just closed from dead last having to meander traffic with tons of kickback.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

The Icarus just closed from dead last having to meander traffic with tons of kickback.

I jumped the gun and posted that after the first race.

That said, for the Rebel I'm in the Baffert Camp... going / exacta
good luck all

[GaryG]

RED ROUTE ONE

[Aerocraft67]

Got through this thread and the DRF previews. Slightly less confident in my initial stand on , less enthused about the potential price of my second choice . The survives as a second-tier choice—maybe even elevated, contrary to lack of public support. Adding to toss list and not letting others sneak off it.

Tiers of betting interest:
,
, ,
,

Surprised to see both Beer and Illman on this one at a short price. I think Aragona noted that 97 Beyer especially flattering (and will draw money). Need to get around this one somehow.

Beer likes him for the lead, I like him to stalk and survive. Surely worth using at 20-1.

Not really a wise guy horse but no one really against him, although Beer noted he was just “along for second” last time against Arabian Knight. Place still pays though!

Didn’t find much enthusiasm for this one, although Aragona and Illman willing to use underneath. Me too.

a bit polarizing. Aragona proclaimed “not a Derby horse,” better shorter. Blown break last out is both excuse and concern. I’ve been beaten by too many I dismissed for distance, so I’ll stick with this one. Minding the price—hope OP is wrong on favoritism

I’m with Beer—not surprised if he wins, but I won’t be betting him. Maybe he rates successfully or just prevails over all the speed, but just don’t see a scenario as confident as the price

Seems worth keeping in a basket of longshots to throw against the chalk

Don’t want to talk myself into this one. You could argue coming around slowly to that $850k purchase, connections showing confidence here, why not toss in the longshot chalkbuster basket. But need something more to go on, like some penchant for the pace scenario, and I don’t see it.

some support for this longshot late running alternative to rising from under the radar. Showed some toughness, penchant for distance, can’t conclude doesn’t like dirt yet. This might be your wise guy horse, at least for a solid play underneath.

another I don’t want to include, although Beer and Illman kind of flatter the OP’s take. Beaten by many of these, but conditioned accordingly to turn the tables.

Aragona noted him among the “filler” but probably just too many factors against him today. Seems most likely to burn out vying for early lead

[Bustin Stones]

After seeing the way the track is playing thru 5 races, it seems to favor Gun Pilot in the Rebel.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Got through this thread and the DRF previews. Slightly less confident in my initial stand on , less enthused about the potential price of my second choice . The survives as a second-tier choice—maybe even elevated, contrary to lack of public support. Adding to toss list and not letting others sneak off it.

Tiers of betting interest:
,
, ,
,

Surprised to see both Beer and Illman on this one at a short price. I think Aragona noted that 97 Beyer especially flattering (and will draw money). Need to get around this one somehow.

Beer likes him for the lead, I like him to stalk and survive. Surely worth using at 20-1.

Not really a wise guy horse but no one really against him, although Beer noted he was just “along for second” last time against Arabian Knight. Place still pays though!

Didn’t find much enthusiasm for this one, although Aragona and Illman willing to use underneath. Me too.

a bit polarizing. Aragona proclaimed “not a Derby horse,” better shorter. Blown break last out is both excuse and concern. I’ve been beaten by too many I dismissed for distance, so I’ll stick with this one. Minding the price—hope OP is wrong on favoritism

I’m with Beer—not surprised if he wins, but I won’t be betting him. Maybe he rates successfully or just prevails over all the speed, but just don’t see a scenario as confident as the price

Seems worth keeping in a basket of longshots to throw against the chalk

Don’t want to talk myself into this one. You could argue coming around slowly to that $850k purchase, connections showing confidence here, why not toss in the longshot chalkbuster basket. But need something more to go on, like some penchant for the pace scenario, and I don’t see it.

some support for this longshot late running alternative to rising from under the radar. Showed some toughness, penchant for distance, can’t conclude doesn’t like dirt yet. This might be your wise guy horse, at least for a solid play underneath.

another I don’t want to include, although Beer and Illman kind of flatter the OP’s take. Beaten by many of these, but conditioned accordingly to turn the tables.

Aragona noted him among the “filler” but probably just too many factors against him today. Seems most likely to burn out vying for early lead

Good stuff. I was very similar in that made the most sense to me and will have to be on almost all tickets.

Almost everyone is seeing the same thing here. There looks to be a lot of pace with at least 3 horses needing to send and get on the lead if not solid early position just off.

That is pushing everyone to be looking for someone from off the pace, and maybe even a deep closer.

There is a lot of expensive horses in here in which I see their connections looking at this race as kind of a 'last chance' per say to stay on the Derby trail or get an auto-entry with a win.

Very good betting race regardless of the end outcome.

[PhantomOnTour]

I have Derby Future bets on Red Route One at 58-1 and Gun Pilot at 66-1 so I'll be rooting for those two to run well.

Probably won't bet this race unless I get a very good price on a runner I like

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Santana heating up with 3 straight wins in Races 5, 6, 7.

He'll be riding the Asmussen in Gun Pilot

[Aerocraft67]

Lots of real time evidence pointing to . Helps assuage my concern from Milkowski dropping a "not for me" on him in the preview. Can't easily dismiss that as a contrarian indicator.