Arkansas Derby

[thetripleclowns]

What are your thoughts on the 2 divisions? I think the second division is stacked with some tough competition and division 1 will likely go to Charlatan, especially with Shooters Shoot scratched.

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[jay68802]

Baffert sweep.

[thetripleclowns]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Baffert sweep.

I wouldn't be surprised if Baffert sweeps this derby. Nadal doesn't need the points though so that may open a small window for the others.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by thetripleclowns

I wouldn't be surprised if Baffert sweeps this derby. Nadal doesn't need the points though so that may open a small window for the others.

Sort of gives you a insider opinion. Rather face Nadal than Charlton.

[Aerocraft67]

Hard to get excited about Race 11 with the prohibitive . Considering the picks in the video, I don't see the , not that he's a toss. I'm quietly against the as a chalk. I'm with you on the , but he's second choice. The is worth a look.

The is interesting. That's where I was headed before the dropped. But with no pace challenge to the , even that doesn't seem so clever anymore. I'm going to play around with the under the .

Race 13 is more interesting. Also weird because I have the same comments about the same numbers. The is legitimate but doesn't have to win.

I don't see the , and the is worth a look. I also wonder about the , leaning toward the "fluke" assessment of last race, especially at a short price. I do like the , maybe enough to key. Unless he comes up short price.

I have the ,, in my longshot tier. I think they each got a mention in your video. All worth considering underneath.

Taking another look at the , which you also mentioned. Seems like like the foremost runner with the most late kick. Maybe that's the one to use at a big price.

Can any of the frontrunners stay if not on the lead? That's actually what I like about the , more than the big number he put up last race.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Baffert sweep.

Wagering certainly starts with the Baffert entries.

Neither looks invincible to me, but I don't have a fault with either one.

Previously my opinion was that Charlatan had a higher ceiling than Nadal, and that Nadal (while a contender-level) isn't quite the superstar that he's being billed as. However, Nadal comes into the race dead-fit.

Unless I notice a price to structure in a gimmick, I'll be watching these two as a fan and for future opportunities.

[burnsy]

Ill go for the pick 3. Obviously, you gotta use the Baffert horses but I'm not gonna single them. You have to wonder about a horse like Charlatan with no stakes and stretching out at a low price. Baffert or no Baffert. I actually hope he wins because 10 furlongs will probably be tough on him. People are already on the bandwagon so if he wins he'll be even more over bet in the future.

The key is the Oaklawn Handicap in the middle. If I see 4-1 or more on By My Standards. I love it. Trophy Chaser as a flyer and Mr. Freeze in the mix also. I don't know if Combatant can do it again and I can't bet Tacitus unless he finally wins one or is way higher than the morning line odds today.

[RunForTheRoses]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Baffert sweep.

Toyed with them.

[RunForTheRoses]

Yo man, was alive with $1P5s with 1 4 5 14. Why did the jock on the 14 stay so wide? Damn, was counting my money because I thought if 14 didn't win 1 would. Inside seemed to be good last two days.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

Yo man, was alive with $1P5s with 1 4 5 14. Why did the jock on the 14 stay so wide? Damn, was counting my money because I thought if 14 didn't win 1 would. Inside seemed to be good last two days.

I was live to as well in the pick 4, 5. Had a $20 double straight w/Nadal.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Ill go for the pick 3. Obviously, you gotta use the Baffert horses but I'm not gonna single them. You have to wonder about a horse like Charlatan with no stakes and stretching out at a low price. Baffert or no Baffert. I actually hope he wins because 10 furlongs will probably be tough on him. People are already on the bandwagon so if he wins he'll be even more over bet in the future.

The key is the Oaklawn Handicap in the middle. If I see 4-1 or more on By My Standards. I love it. Trophy Chaser as a flyer and Mr. Freeze in the mix also. I don't know if Combatant can do it again and I can't bet Tacitus unless he finally wins one or is way higher than the morning line odds today.

nice! hope you fired him

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

Yo man, was alive with $1P5s with 1 4 5 14. Why did the jock on the 14 stay so wide? Damn, was counting my money because I thought if 14 didn't win 1 would. Inside seemed to be good last two days.

Why did the jock stymie the horse from taking over down the backside? I was alive to a pick five and 2 pick fours.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Baffert sweep.

bingo

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by Afleet

nice! hope you fired him

Of course I did. Thanks. I don’t come on here to chew the fat about 3/5 shots. That just gets me in trouble anyway. If a horse isn’t 5/2 or more , I’m not interested in a win bet at all. And even though I hit the pic 3, I take shots too. That’s where the “big day” is. Sometimes I actually wonder how many people are just fans on the internet and how many actually bet. Cause if they are betting too. Most are not that great at handicapping . Just sayin, when people go on and on about the most obvious horses, it doesn’t give me a thing . I already know that . Where’s the beef? By My Standards was the beef in that sequence, 9-2. That’s what’s gotta be found to bet something worth a dime . I thought Nadal ran huge. Charlatan, who knows? Race was a joke.

[thetripleclowns]

Thank you everyone for your comments. It was a good race and Baffert swept both divisions. Ithink it will be interesting to watch the Baffert 3 race in the derby, but there is so much talent out there, so we will see if they add more derby prep races throughout the summer. I want to see Shooters Shoot have his chance

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