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Old 05-21-2023, 12:11 AM   #46
PalaceOfFortLarned
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Someone also has to explain to me how every horse in that field was less than 11/1.

How was Coffeewithchris less than 40/1 much less less than 15/1? I get that is was a small field, but that makes zero sense.
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Old 05-21-2023, 08:00 AM   #47
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Looks like a lot of folks did think like me
Mage should have been way less than 7-5 vs that field...wonder why he wasn't.
Maybe a lot of people know that deep closing Derby winners tend to struggle at Pimlico, and now you do too.
He did pay $2.40 to show though
Mage is the fastest horse early in the race, he should have been right off of National Treasure flank down the backstretch. The problem is Delgado and Castellano had their game plan to sit three lengths off National Treasure no matter what the fractions. Had that race gone in 50 and 115 Castellano still would have been three lengths behind. A jockey needs to adjust in race and that was never going to happen. Why? Because the two of them feared that had they been up on the lead and lost they would be criticized for the ride. Baffert never worries about what anyone thinks of him or his decisions because no one is going to pull their horse from him.

It was a horrible decision to sit that far off, Mage had zero chance of winning. Even Rosario on Red Route One saw the slow pace and moved quickly to get into contention and even passed Mage where Castellano sat there doing nothing. Castellano said he had a dream trip, a beautiful trip. They were flying around the turn, the fourth quarter went in 23.2, no one can make up ground. Mage never should have left the rail either.

If Mage were to transfer to Baffert in two months he would go to the lead in the Haskell in 111 and change and win. With Baffert Mage would win multiple grade one races, unfortunately Mage will most likely never win another race as Delgado is obsessed with Mage not running faster than 113 to six furlongs in any future race.

People whine about the top trainers getting all the best horses. Well there is a reason for that. No one is going to spend a million dollars on a horse and give it to any second rate trainer. Baffert and Velasquez know what they are doing and that is why they are winners. He went off 7-5 instead of 4-5 because many didn't trust the connections to win two races in two weeks. Once Baffert retires we may go 50 years or more without another Triple Crown winner.
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Old 05-21-2023, 10:41 AM   #48
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Mage is the fastest horse early in the race, he should have been right off of National Treasure flank down the backstretch. The problem is Delgado and Castellano had their game plan to sit three lengths off National Treasure no matter what the fractions. Had that race gone in 50 and 115 Castellano still would have been three lengths behind. A jockey needs to adjust in race and that was never going to happen. Why? Because the two of them feared that had they been up on the lead and lost they would be criticized for the ride. Baffert never worries about what anyone thinks of him or his decisions because no one is going to pull their horse from him.

It was a horrible decision to sit that far off, Mage had zero chance of winning. Even Rosario on Red Route One saw the slow pace and moved quickly to get into contention and even passed Mage where Castellano sat there doing nothing. Castellano said he had a dream trip, a beautiful trip. They were flying around the turn, the fourth quarter went in 23.2, no one can make up ground. Mage never should have left the rail either.

If Mage were to transfer to Baffert in two months he would go to the lead in the Haskell in 111 and change and win. With Baffert Mage would win multiple grade one races, unfortunately Mage will most likely never win another race as Delgado is obsessed with Mage not running faster than 113 to six furlongs in any future race.

People whine about the top trainers getting all the best horses. Well there is a reason for that. No one is going to spend a million dollars on a horse and give it to any second rate trainer. Baffert and Velasquez know what they are doing and that is why they are winners. He went off 7-5 instead of 4-5 because many didn't trust the connections to win two races in two weeks. Once Baffert retires we may go 50 years or more without another Triple Crown winner.

This pace and the positioning on paper was not difficult to predict in a small field. 4 would either clear off then back it down with the 1 going two path to stalk a slow early pace or the 4 just sits second stalking a slow early pace which would make the 1 very very formidable. 4 sat second in the first quarter in several recent races and the comments by the trainer in the pre-race interview had me pretty much convinced that's what he'd be doing here. The 1 was also bet like everyone in that camp knew it too. Mage being stuck in a box inside and waiting was probable. Irad race riding him to stay there to keep his move bottled up until the quarter pole was masterful and also predictable (see other thread). The flow of this race, the post positions, the pace setup, everything about it was all against Mage going in. Was he the most likely winner? yes, not the way to play the race though IMO. Prices were cold IMO because someone was setting up some sort of offshore score by betting down the 2 & 4 in the win pool. There's no way those two no-hopers naturally both go off @ precisely 10.50-1 in there. I mean really if they were coupled they'd be 5-1? on what planet does that happen.
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Old 05-22-2023, 03:33 PM   #49
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Baffert is generally so aggressive it seemed obvious to me National Treasure was going to go from the rail. Personally, I thought Coffeewithchris had enough speed to push the pace for awhile even though he was a lower quality horse. However, the pre race comments by the connections seemed to indicate they were more inclined to try to salvage some part of the purse than take on the superior NT in a fast pace. It didn't work, but I don't think it would have mattered. Had they used that horse even harder, it might have changed the final result, but he would have lost by 30 lengths instead of 19 3/4.

I thought the major risks to Mage were that he ran a huge top last time that was no lock to be duplicated and he had the advantage of very fast pace and race that kind of collapsed last time and this pace was either going to be honest or slow. I'm not so sure which contributed to his defeat. It might have been a little of each.
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Old 05-22-2023, 04:25 PM   #50
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Baffert is generally so aggressive it seemed obvious to me National Treasure was going to go from the rail. Personally, I thought Coffeewithchris had enough speed to push the pace for awhile even though he was a lower quality horse. However, the pre race comments by the connections seemed to indicate they were more inclined to try to salvage some part of the purse than take on the superior NT in a fast pace. It didn't work, but I don't think it would have mattered. Had they used that horse even harder, it might have changed the final result, but he would have lost by 30 lengths instead of 19 3/4.

I thought the major risks to Mage were that he ran a huge top last time that was no lock to be duplicated and he had the advantage of very fast pace and race that kind of collapsed last time and this pace was either going to be honest or slow. I'm not so sure which contributed to his defeat. It might have been a little of each.
My wife and I were watching. About 2 min before the start I told my wife that Bafferts horse was going to go to the lead and try to slow it down and pull away in the stretch and win easily.

When I saw the slow ass half I told her it was over. It turned out closer than I thought.

this looked telegraphed on paper. Not sure why mage got the money he did. Dumb money if you ask me
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