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05-02-2023, 10:26 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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KENTUCKY DERBY - CHURCHILL DOWNS –5/6 –R12
KENTUCKY DERBY - CHURCHILL DOWNS – 5/6 –– R12 - 1&1/4 MI
Code:
PP M/L ENTRY PROFILE- / PACE / O.A SPEED/WORK OUTS/ RECORD
#1 30/1 Hit Show NF/100/ XWO / Has Won 3 of 5 life time races
#2 15/1 Verifying OM/102/ XWO /In the Money 4 of 6 life time races
#3 12/1 Two Phils OM/99/ XWO / Has Won 4 of 8 life time races
#4 20/1 Confidence Game MK/97/ XWO / Has Won 3 of 7 life time races
#5 5/1 Tapit Trice ON/103/GWO / Has Won 4 of 5 life time races
#6 12/1 Kingsbarns OM/99/XWO/ Undefeated
#7 50/1 Reincarnate MK/97/ GWO /Never Out of the Money
#8 15/1 Mage OM/100/FWO/ Has Won 1 of 3 life time races
#9 20/1 Skinner OF/100/GWO/ Has Won 1 of 6 life time races
#10 10/1 Practical Move ON/104/ XWO /Fastest Preps/Never Out of the Money
#11 30/1 Disarm ON/99/ FWO /Never Out of the Money
#12 50/1 Jace's Road MK/96/ XWO/ Has Won 2 of 6 life time races
#13 50/1 Sun Thunder OF/96/ NO WO/ Has Won 1 of 6 life time races
#14 8/1 Angel Of Empire OF/105/ XWO / Has Won 4 of 6 life time races
#15 3/1 Forte ON/105/GWO/Has Won 6 of 7 life time races
#16 50/1 Raise Cain OF/96/ PWO / Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#17 10/1 Derma Sotogake OM/104/GWO/ Has Won 4 of 8 life time races
#18 30/1 Rocket Can OM/98/XWO/ Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#19 30/1 Lord Miles ON/100/ XWO/ Has Won 2 of 5 life time races
#20 50/1 Continuar NF/90 /NO WO / Has Won 2 of 5 life time races
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#21 30/1 Cyclone Mischief OM/97/XWO/ Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#22 20/1 Mandarin Hero NF/100/ PWO / Has Won 4 of 8 life time races
There’s enough early speed in this race between the  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  and  to set it up for some running ON or OFF the pace. Assuming that they all break well those showing the strongest early pace are the , , , , and . Expect those remaining to begin falling back after about 6 furlongs. The will probably work a bit harder to get a good early position going into the 1st turn.
The best of those running ON the pace would be the  ,  , and  . Not much separates them. The  can also be considered with some additional improvement. (Although the post may compromise its chances).
The best of those running OFF the pace would be the  ,  , and  with the latter having showed the best late run. How they manage to maneuver through the tiring traffic will determine how well they finish. Their jockeys will play an important role.
In the interim, for my top choices I’m leaning toward the , , , and for vertical play. Aside from their obvious speed I believe at this point they’ve demonstrated the most class in their running abilities.
My final betting choices and type of bets will be based on how the live betting shapes up.
GL\
Last edited by Nitro; 05-02-2023 at 10:29 PM.
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05-03-2023, 07:00 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Well it looks like Mother Nature will be throwing us another curve by bringing us rain on both Fri and Sat. I’m going to assume that the track will wind up as either Muddy or Sloppy.
The following entries have previously handled the off going:
, , , , , ,  , , 
The following entries have never run on an off track, but their breeding indicates the possibility of doing well:
, , , ,  ,
So I will probably eliminate from my top selections. I’ll substitute it with either the , , or .
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05-04-2023, 04:36 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,803
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05-04-2023, 07:47 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Updated - KENTUCKY DERBY - CHURCHHILL DOWNS – 5/6 –– R12 - 1&1/4 MI
Code:
PP M/L ENTRY PROFILE- / PACE / O.A SPEED/WORK OUTS/ RECORD
#1 32/1 Hit Show 0N/100/ XWO / Has Won 3 of 5 life time races
#2 24/1 Verifying OM/102/ XWO /In the Money 4 of 6 life time races
#3 9/1 Two Phils OM/99/ XWO / Has Won 4 of 8 life time races
#4 20/1 Confidence Game OM/97/ XWO / Has Won 3 of 7 life time races
#5 5/1 Tapit Trice ON/103/GWO / Has Won 4 of 5 life time races
#6 12/1 Kingsbarns OM/99/XWO/ Undefeated
#7 16/1 Reincarnate MK/97/ GWO /Never Out of the Money
#8 16/1 Mage OM/100/FWO/ Has Won 1 of 3 life time races
#9 19/1 Skinner OF/100/GWO/ Has Won 1 of 6 life time races
#10 28/1 Disarm ON/99/ FWO /Never Out of the Money
#11 32/1 Jace's Road MK/96/ XWO/ Has Won 2 of 6 life time races
#12 33/1 Sun Thunder OF/96/ NO WO/ Has Won 1 of 6 life time races
#13 6/1 Angel Of Empire OF/105/ XWO / Has Won 4 of 6 life time races
#14 9/2 Forte ON/105/GWO/Has Won 6 of 7 life time races
#15 32/1 Raise Cain OF/96/ PWO / Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#16 12/1 Derma Sotogake OM/104/GWO/ Has Won 4 of 8 life time races
#17 30/1 Rocket Can OM/98/XWO/ Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#18 54/1 Continuar NF/90 /NO WO / Has Won 2 of 5 life time races
#19 52/1 Cyclone Mischief OM/97/XWO/ Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#20 44/1 Mandarin Hero OF/100/ PWO / Never Out of the Money
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#10 10/1 Practical Move Scratched
#19 30/1 Lord Miles Scratched
There’s enough early speed in this race between the , , , , , , , , , and to set it up for some running ON or OFF the pace. Assuming that they all break well those showing the strongest early pace are the , , , , and . Expect those remaining to begin falling back after about 6 furlongs. The will probably work a bit harder to get a good early position going into the 1st turn.
The best of those running ON the pace would be the , and . Not much separates them. The might also be considered with some additional improvement.
The best of those running OFF the pace would be the ,  , and with the having showed the best late run. How they manage to maneuver through the tiring traffic will determine how well they finish. Their jockeys will play an important role.
Well it looks like Mother Nature will be throwing us another curve by bringing us rain on both Fri and Sat.
I’m going to assume that the track will wind up as either Muddy or Sloppy.
The following entries have previously handled the off going:
, , , , , , , , , and
The following entries have never run on an off track, but their breeding indicates the possibility of doing well:
, , , , , and
A good friend informed me that the sire of ran very well on an off track and its broodmare is by Sunday Silence.
In the interim, for my top choices I’m leaning toward the , , , , and for vertical play. Aside from their obvious speed I believe at this point they’ve demonstrated the most class in their running abilities and should handle the off going. My final betting choices and type of bets will be based on how the live betting shapes up. ( NOTE: The M/L has also been Updated)
GL\
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05-04-2023, 09:10 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,803
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05-04-2023, 09:47 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Thanks for the update Andy!
I'll post my final KY Derby update sometime tomorrow. If there are any additional scratches at least there won't be new substitutions.
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05-05-2023, 07:52 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,803
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Thanks for the update Andy!
I'll post my final KY Derby update sometime tomorrow. If there are any additional scratches at least there won't be new substitutions.
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Last edited by Andy Asaro; 05-05-2023 at 07:54 AM.
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05-05-2023, 08:21 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,803
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Last edited by Andy Asaro; 05-05-2023 at 08:27 AM.
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05-05-2023, 09:35 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 753
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What's the story with the weather report? from what I hear... both days are going to be fine. A little rain after the Oaks and then Sat is suppose to be fast and firm?
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05-05-2023, 03:32 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Updated - KENTUCKY DERBY - CHURCHHILL DOWNS – 5/6 –– R12 - 1&1/4 MI
Code:
PP M/L ENTRY PROFILE- / PACE / O.A SPEED/WORK OUTS/ RECORD
#1 35/1 Hit Show 0N/100/ XWO / Has Won 3 of 5 life time races
#2 18/1 Verifying OM/102/ XWO /In the Money 4 of 6 life time races
#3 8/1 Two Phils OM/99/ XWO / Has Won 4 of 8 life time races
#4 20/1 Confidence Game OM/97/ XWO / Has Won 3 of 7 life time races
#5 6/1 Tapit Trice ON/103/XWO / Has Won 4 of 5 life time races
#6 11/1 Kingsbarns OM/99/XWO/ Undefeated
#7 15/1 Reincarnate MK/97/ GWO /Never Out of the Money
#8 20/1 Mage OM/100/FWO/ Has Won 1 of 3 life time races
#9 24/1 Disarm ON/99/ FWO /Never Out of the Money
#10 41/1 Jace's Road MK/96/ GWO/ Has Won 2 of 6 life time races
#11 39/1 Sun Thunder OF/96/ GWO/ Has Won 1 of 6 life time races
#12 6/1 Angel Of Empire OF/105/ XWO / Has Won 4 of 6 life time races
#13 4/1 Forte ON/105/GWO/Has Won 6 of 7 life time races
#14 39/1 Raise Cain OF/96/ PWO / Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#15 8/1 Derma Sotogake OM/104/GWO/ Has Won 4 of 8 life time races
#16 38/1 Rocket Can OM/98/XWO/ Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#17 43/1 Cyclone Mischief OM/97/XWO/ Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#18 27/1 Mandarin Hero NF/100/ PWO / Never Out of the Money
#19 44/1 King Russell OF/98 / GWO / 1st or 2nd in last 4 races
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#10 10/1 Practical Move Scratched
#19 30/1 Lord Miles Scratched
#18 54/1 Continuar Scratched
#9 19/1 Skinner Scratched
There’s enough early speed in this race between the , , , , , , , , and to set it up for some running ON or OFF the pace. Assuming that they all break well those showing the strongest early pace are the , , , , and . Expect those remaining to begin falling back after about 6 furlongs. The will probably work a bit harder to get a good early position going into the 1st turn.
The best of those running ON the pace would be the , and . Not much separates them. The might also be considered with some additional improvement.
The best of those running OFF the pace would be the , , and with the having showed the best late run. How they manage to maneuver through the tiring traffic will determine how well they finish. Their jockeys will play an important role.
Well it looks like the weather predictions were completely wrong and its back to square one for a fast track.
In the interim, for my top choices I’m still leaning toward the , , , , and for vertical play. Aside from their obvious speed I believe at this point they’ve demonstrated the most class in their running abilities and should handle the off going. My final betting choices and type of bets will be based on how the live betting shapes up.
NOTE: The odds as shown are as of FRI 3:00 PM EST
GL\
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05-06-2023, 07:45 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,957
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Nice write up, Nitro - I like how you include the starts/wins in your comments, as I use the "champion's urge to win" as a final separator.
Most of the "speed" in the race was in the inside half of the field prior to the scratches, now I'm not so sure. It appeared the pressers and even the closers would get through the first turn okay with the field well spread out. Not as sure now. Still looks like the run into and around the second turn could be wild, if the pace is moderate or slow, with many horses spread across the track. Hard to tell which jock spots in the hole inside and times the move to get there.
I think the pace will be slower, but TFUS is projecting fast and so have a number of other touts. Almost tempted at this point to make two sets of bets based on different pace scenarios, but that's lunacy. On the other hand, we did have a beautiful full moon a couple nights ago..... 
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05-06-2023, 09:58 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Thanks Parkview Pirate! It's been quite a chore keeping up with all the changes.
FINAL Update - KY DERBY - CHURCHHILL DOWNS – 5/6 –– R12 - 1&1/4 MI
From what I can see on the tote it looks like the betting numbers for each entry will be based on the original post position draw. So I’ve revised my PP numbers below to comply with that order:
Code:
PP M/L ENTRY PROFILE- / PACE / O.A SPEED/WORK OUTS/ RECORD
#1 27/1 Hit Show 0N/100/ XWO / Has Won 3 of 5 life time races
#2 17/1 Verifying OM/102/ XWO /In the Money 4 of 6 life time races
#3 7/1 Two Phils OM/99/ XWO / Has Won 4 of 8 life time races
#4 16/1 Confidence Game OM/97/ XWO / Has Won 3 of 7 life time races
#5 9/2 Tapit Trice ON/103/XWO / Has Won 4 of 5 life time races
#6 10/1 Kingsbarns OM/99/XWO/ Undefeated
#7 12/1 Reincarnate MK/97/ GWO /Never Out of the Money
#8 17/1 Mage OM/100/FWO/ Has Won 1 of 3 life time races
#11 23/1 Disarm ON/99/ FWO /Never Out of the Money
#12 32/1 Jace's Road MK/96/ GWO/ Has Won 2 of 6 life time races
#13 29/1 Sun Thunder OF/96/ GWO/ Has Won 1 of 6 life time races
#14 9/2 Angel Of Empire OF/105/ XWO / Has Won 4 of 6 life time races
#16 30/1 Raise Cain OF/96/ PWO / Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#17 7/1 Derma Sotogake OM/104/GWO/ Has Won 4 of 8 life time races
#18 27/1 Rocket Can OM/98/XWO/ Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#21 34/1 Cyclone Mischief OM/97/XWO/ Has Won 2 of 7 life time races
#22 22/1 Mandarin Hero NF/100/ PWO / Never Out of the Money
#23 32/1 King Russell OF/98 / GWO / 1st or 2nd in last 4 races
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#9 19/1 Skinner Scratched
#10 10/1 Practical Move Scratched
#15 4/1 Forte Scratched
#19 30/1 Lord Miles Scratched
#20 54/1 Continuar Scratched
There’s enough early speed in this race between the , , , , , , , , and 21 to set it up for some running ON or OFF the pace. Assuming that they all break well those showing the strongest early pace are the , , , , and . Expect those remaining to begin falling back after about 6 furlongs. The 21 will probably work a bit harder to get a good early position going into the 1st turn.
The best of those running ON the pace would be the , and . The should be considered with some anticipated improvement.
The best of those running OFF the pace would be the and 22 with the having showed the best late run. How they manage to maneuver through the tiring traffic will determine how well they finish. Their jockeys will play an important role.
All selections are for a fast track.
In the interim, for my top choices I’m still leaning toward the , , , , and 22 for vertical Exotics play. Aside from their obvious speed I believe at this point they’ve demonstrated the most class in their running abilities. My final betting choices and type of bets will be based on how the live betting shapes up.
NOTE: The odds as shown are as of SAT 9:00 AM EST
GL\
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