HHQSS, a work in progress

[headhawg]

Earlier this year Tom made reference to PHQS, originally and pen-n-paper system sold by a(n) (in)famous purveyor of such systems/software. I wrote an EquiSim formula based on PHQS but it really didn't show too much, not that should surprise anyone. I decided to revisit the system to see if I could make it better based on some things that I have read and also some database queries. In the spring, I programmed a version called HHQSS as a stand-alone application. After testing about 250 races I discovered that there might be something to this. I got burned out doing testing on it so I stopped working on it. Until recently...

I am attaching an early (alpha) version of the program for a couple of reasons. One, I hope that the PA community will provide feedback by doing some backtesting. The feedback should be constructive -- I don't really need to read that the program sucks. If that's what you think then don't bother posting and go pound sand. What would be great is users telling me what is showing both positive and negative results, i.e. track, race type, point gaps, datafile type (drf, jcp), etc. The second reason is that I hope by having a thread on PA I will be more likely to continue with working on and improving the program.

Here is what I have found so far. Differences of one point seem to be irrelevant, so treat those horses as the same. There starts to be a difference at two points, and obviously the bigger the gap the bigger the more likely the higher point horse will win. The system works better with older horses on dirt, so I would like to improve the turf ratings. It is not great with maiden races especially those with more than one FTS. More testing is needed with MCL races with horses that have run a few times. This is NOT a longshot program -- high point total horses will be low- to medium- priced. The most interesting thing that I have discovered is that if the favorite is NOT the top rated horse it usually doesn't win. In other words, HHQSS may work very well as a chalk eliminator program at least from the top slot. The opposite appears to also be true -- if the chalk is the top horse by at least two points it might make for a good single.

Other things to know: There is no scratch utility built in as of yet, so using the program "live" will probably not work unless you use my HDST program to create a modified data file. Scratches are important as there is "pace pressure" factor that contributes to the point total. The "Set Options" button is disabled so don't bother to click it. The output is sent to a text file named "HHQSS.txt" and should be saved to the data file folder. I recommend putting the datafiles in the same folder as HHQSS for now. The text file gets appended; that is, every time HHQSS is run the output is added to the end of the file. If you want to start fresh then just delete or rename the .txt file. You can load multiple datafiles at one time; I would use a reasonable number such as loading files from one particular date. I don't think I set a limit on the number that can be loaded, but there's a reasonable chance that something bad will happen if you load too many files (like a program crash). Also, the data files must be unzipped!

HHQSS is free to use but it is not open source and not in the public domain. If you have any doubt about using the program, then don't download and install it. There is no deadline to complete this project and no update schedule either. I will update when I can; this is definitely a WIP.

To install, just unzip the files into a folder. There really isn't an installation program and nothing is written to the Windows registry. Double-click the exe to launch. I am developing on a Win7 system so I have no idea if this works on Vista, 8.1, or Win10. Probably, but perhaps users will verify.

BTW, the aforementioned vendor is charging $200 for its version. Just sayin'.

[JimG]

HH,

Works on my win7 32 bit machine just fine using the scratch file from Scratch Manager. I know it is early, but suggest sorting in point order and the morning line being included in the sort, to quickly scan overlays.

Jim

[mikesal57]

Nice going HH...

Works on win 10....just an alignment issue going on...
As for the figs.......falls in line with what Joe Public sees...
Need to be more creative...

Mike

[headhawg]

Thanks Jim. I already had sorting by total points in my notes. I will also make sure to include the M/L. The final version should be fancier, with a real UI that will let you sort on whatever column the user would like. That's the plan, anyway. I will probably introduce the UI once HHQSS reaches a beta stage.

One more thing to note, and I hope that users will verify. At a 5+ point gap, things get interesting in terms of the confidence level of the top horse. Also, look for point clusters, e.g. the first two horses are close in points, but there is a gap between those two and the next group.

[headhawg]

Thanks Mike. I don't have that alignment issue using Notepad; I will check into it. Remember a couple of things -- the program isn't going to find bombs, as I stated in my OP. It may bring more confidence in betting lower-priced horses or in using them for horizontal bets. And this is in an alpha stage -- if the point system proves useless then I didn't spend 200 hours coding features that don't matter anyway.

[KyRacer]

Hi HH,
I bought Equisim earlier this year and just recently started to use the formula view. I had been thinking of trying to program PHQS into the formula view too. The basic PHQS seems like a simple program. I have the old software. When they brought out the new software they changed the basic formula, but I haven't bought it so I don't know what the changes are.

As for HHQSS, I had to run in as administrator the first time on Windows 10 64 bit. I scanned the file with Advast and Malwarebytes and it passed the scans, but when I clicked on it to open, Advast pop upped and said CyberCapture has been activated. You have discovered a very rare file. It was being sent to Advast Lab for interrogation. I have never seen that pop up before. I then ran the file the VirusTotal website. Only 1 of the 68 virus scanners said it as unsafe. Something called Cylance said it was unsafe. It uses some type of AI. I had the same thing happen with another file I ran through there. It was the only one that complained. I believe the file is safe so I went ahead and ran it on my computer, but had to run it as administrator.

Will be interesting to follow the development of the program. I ran a file from Turfway park from last night through it. I haven't used the scratch program yet. I used Textpad tex editor which allowed me to sort on the points total. Good luck with the program.

TP  12/08/18

Race 1  Md 30000  EPP: 0
  #2 LADY LEAH    	   Points: 27  SCR
 #2B FOGGY KITTEN 	   Points: 22  
  #4 ANNAGRAM     	   Points: 17  
  #1 CHAMPAGNERIE 	   Points: 15  
  #7 GOLDEN LOCH  	   Points: 14  
 #1A HOPE SO      	   Points: 13  WON 11.40
  #5 IMPULSIVE    	   Points: 12  
  #6 CZRAINA MARIA	   Points: 9  
  #3 KIMBERLEY DREAM	   Points: 9  

Race 2  Clm 5000n3l  EPP: 0
  #4 YOU'RE THE REASON	   Points: 30  WON  2.40 DH
  #8 TACO WAYNE'S SHOT	   Points: 25  
  #5 RINGIN IN THE RAIN	   Points: 25  WON  3.60 DH
  #7 JILLS PASSION	   Points: 22  
  #3 CHEATING EX  	   Points: 21  
  #1 BLACK IS BACK	   Points: 20  SCR LATE
  #2 NEW BLUE CAT 	   Points: 17  
  #6 RED SPOTS    	   Points: 13  
  #9 K LYN WINS   	   Points:-1  

Race 3  Clm 5000  EPP: 0
  #4 PRIMED FOR TALENT	   Points: 35  
  #9 PLAIN TALES  	   Points: 30  
  #8 MY FOOLISH BEAU	   Points: 27  
  #6 JOEY B       	   Points: 27  WON 16.00
  #1 BAKU DANCER  	   Points: 25  
 #1A SYROX        	   Points: 24  
  #7 BENEDICTION  	   Points: 24  SCR
  #2 RED BLUE AND TRUE	   Points: 24  
  #5 GRAND GINJO  	   Points: 22  
  #3 WOODBURN     	   Points: 21  

Race 4  Clm 7500n2l  EPP: 0
  #1 TIME TRAVELLER	   Points: 33  
  #6 LORD REVELSTOKE	   Points: 32  WON  6.00
  #4 DARINGLY BOLD	   Points: 31  
  #8 STORM SCAT   	   Points: 29  
  #5 MAJOR TEMPO  	   Points: 23  
  #2 LAUGHING LEVI	   Points: 21  
  #3 TERMINAL SPEED	   Points: 12  
  #7 REXARONY     	   Points: 11  

Race 5  Clm 5000n2y  EPP: 1
  #3 STINA        	   Points: 31  
  #9 TENACIOUS SALLY	   Points: 29  
  #5 LIAR'S SMOKER	   Points: 29  
  #4 NATIVE WONDER	   Points: 27  
  #6 SPOT A KISS  	   Points: 26  SCR
 #10 MALEFICENT QUEEN	   Points: 26  
  #8 SEAMSTRESS   	   Points: 22  
  #7 NAPA VALLEY ROSE	   Points: 22  WON 29.80
  #2 HAUTE PROSPECT	   Points: 21  
  #1 EVERYDAY ICE 	   Points: 16  

Race 6  Clm 5000n3l  EPP: 0
  #5 HONOR BAR    	   Points: 30  
  #3 SHYLA        	   Points: 29  WON 6.00
  #7 LUNARIS      	   Points: 26  
  #8 CHANCE OF FROST	   Points: 22  
  #9 READY TO GO  	   Points: 19  
  #4 APPEALING JULIA	   Points: 16  
  #6 WILL WANTS CANDY	   Points: 16  
  #2 DULCE DE LECHE	   Points: 15  
  #1 LUCKY ME LUCKY YOU	   Points: 13  

Race 7  OClm 40000n2x  EPP: 3
  #2 ACTION EVERYDAY	   Points: 37  
  #1 THIRSTY ACTOR	   Points: 35  
  #3 BROKEN PROMISE	   Points: 33  WON 5.60
  #4 SPEED GRACER 	   Points: 32  
 #1A MISTER POLLARD	   Points: 23  SCR
  #5 KING VALERO  	   Points: 21  
  #6 SOUTHWEST TRAIL	   Points: 16  

Race 8  Md Sp Wt  EPP: 0
  #9 CLEAR FOR ACTION	   Points: 36  SCR
 #10 KEROS        	   Points: 29  WON 6.00
  #1 RETALIATED   	   Points: 24  
  #8 TAPIFYN      	   Points: 22  
  #5 ARNO'S MANE MAN	   Points: 16  
 #13 INSPIRED TO ROCK	   Points: 16  SCR
 #12 GOTTSACKER   	   Points: 15  
  #7 BORDER CROSSING	   Points: 13  
  #6 MARV'S MAGIC 	   Points: 10  
  #3 MIREUON      	   Points: 6  
  #2 EL CAPA ROJO 	   Points: 4  
  #4 NORTH POINT  	   Points:-3  
 #11 SUPER SILVER 	   Points:-2

[headhawg]

Thanks KyRacer. I am really not sure why this would get flagged as potential malware. There is nothing in the code that would do anything malicious. The process is to load datafiles, crunch some numbers, and write the text file.

As I mentioned in the first post, it is important to scratch horses before running the program. Pace pressure is a factor, and the calculated points will likely differ depending on the speed of the horses scratched as well as other data such as track surface. One of the things that will change in a future version is the computing of early speed points. Right now HHQSS reads that info from the datafile.

[KyRacer]

I got a reply back that came through Avast saying that the file had been processed and that the file is safe. CyberCapture is a new feature in Avast. It can be turned off. I think it flag your file because it was the first time it came across it. My first message said it could take a couple of hours for the lab to process it. The Cylance scan was probably just a false positive.

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by JimG

HH,

Works on my win7 32 bit machine just fine using the scratch file from Scratch Manager. I know it is early, but suggest sorting in point order and the morning line being included in the sort, to quickly scan overlays.

Jim

Does not appear to work on Win7 64 bit.

[headhawg]

It should work JJ. I am using Win7 Pro 64-bit. When the .zip file is extracted, you should have two folders, a .dll, and the .exe. If those aren't in the same parent folder it won't work.

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by headhawg

It should work JJ. I am using Win7 Pro 64-bit. When the .zip file is extracted, you should have two folders, a .dll, and the .exe. If those aren't in the same parent folder it won't work.

It calls explorer to select race file and then nothing happens.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by JJMartin

It calls explorer to select race file and then nothing happens.

Look in folder where you selected the data file from......



theres a file named HHQSS.TXT

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Look in folder where you selected the data file from......



theres a file named HHQSS.TXT

I see it now, is that how it works?
Thanks.

[JJMartin]

I think I can make something in excel to import and sort the data.

[headhawg]

This is a very early version so the output goes to a text file; that is how it works for the time being. The main purpose for releasing HHQSS now was to see if there is any merit to the point system. That is, can we find some set of betting rules or patterns that make the program usable. It doesn't make sense for me to spend time putting in a fancy interface or print options if the main calculation engine is a flop.

In earlier posts I mentioned some things that I observed and I was hoping that the PA "testers" would confirm those and/or report back things that they have found. Obviously the more races tested the better. As I mentioned, I think that there's something to the point system -- it's just a matter of discovering what to tweak and how to use it in a worthwhile manner.