Getting a Filly to the Derby? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

PowerUpPaynter · 11-01-2015, 09:41 AM

Good Day,

Songbird was very impressive. Was wondering has the derby pts system killed the idea of a filly in the derby? The decision would have to be made very early to put her on the road to the derby and race in derby pts races.

She ran a full second faster then Nyquist.

Secondbest · 11-01-2015, 09:44 AM

I hope they go for it

PowerUpPaynter · 11-01-2015, 10:02 AM

They really should guarantee the top Road To The Oaks points horse a spot in the derby every year if they want it. So the decision tdont have to be made so early. 1 major dowoonside of the derby pts system.

nijinski · 11-01-2015, 03:37 PM

I don't like to see a filly in the Derby because I grew up in the generation when several trainers did not want there stud valued colts beaten by the girls . I worry about them getting roughed up .
I also hate that PETA will point their finger and they do . The only one I saw in my time was Genuine Risk . And she came up a barren broodmare for the most part . This is inconclusive , but if I owned Songbird I'd not opt for it unless she was built like an Amazon.
Btw check out GR's Preakness , the mugging of that sweet gal , lol .

Lemon Drop Husker · 11-01-2015, 06:46 PM

She is deserving of a shot, but after the whole Eight Belles incident in 2008 I'm just not sure if it is the right thing to do.

She showed she was better than any of the boys yesterday though.

I was really looking forward to Beholder running in this year's Classic, but it wasn't meant to be. And even though that is theoretically a tougher field, the Derby with 20 horses going 10F for the first times in their life is a whole different ball game.

horses4courses · 11-01-2015, 06:54 PM

If The Coach had Songbird , he'd be gunning for it.
You only get one chance, ya know?

nijinski · 11-01-2015, 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horses4courses

If The Coach had Songbird , he'd be gunning for it.
You only get one chance, ya know?

And as well his Winning Colors was targeted inter Preakness .
Rags To Richees did a great job nailing Curlin but paid the price .

Not a great history for the gals after the Classics if you sum it up. .

RacingFan1992 · 11-02-2015, 12:01 AM

So many people complained that it wasn't fair the point system excluded fillies from the Kentucky Derby which is not true. They also want it so the fillies qualify for the Derby without facing males going into Derby which I think is stupid because if you want your filly to run in the Kentucky Derby then run her in some of the Derby (not Oaks) prep races where she will encounter males. You want her in the Derby I say run her in the Wood, SA Derby, Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes not the Gazelle, SA Oaks, Fantasy, or Ashland Stakes. Make her earn her way into "The Run for the Roses"!

davew · 11-02-2015, 01:54 AM

20 points has been all really needed last couple years

Nyquist got that with the Juvenile win -

a long campaign is not necessary - just a showing in one of the majors

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/prep-races

iceknight · 11-02-2015, 09:27 AM

Was Rachel's Valentina faster than Nyquist too.. anyone know?

cj · 11-02-2015, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iceknight

Was Rachel's Valentina faster than Nyquist too.. anyone know?

She was on my numbers.

classhandicapper · 11-02-2015, 03:10 PM

The colts don't look especially exciting, but my guess is that the gap is not nearly as large as the difference between the times between of the two BC races. Nyquist lost 94 feet relative to Riker in his race and quite a few others also lost of ton of ground the way the race was run. I'm not a literal ground guy, but that's a LOT of ground.

On top of that, it's not unusual for the fillies to be a little ahead of the colts in their development at 2. Then the colts slowly catch up. So if the usual gap is 8 Beyer points or so, it's less than that at 2.

cj · 11-02-2015, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The colts don't look especially exciting, but my guess is that the gap is not nearly as large as the difference between the times between of the two BC races. Nyquist lost 94 feet relative to Riker in his race and quite a few others also lost of ton of ground the way the race was run. I'm not a literal ground guy, but that's a LOT of ground.

On top of that, it's not unusual for the fillies to be a little ahead of the colts in their development at 2. Then the colts slowly catch up. So if the usual gap is 8 Beyer points or so, it's less than that at 2.

This is kind of what tipped off to me American Pharoah could be something special. The colts were way ahead of the fillies at 2 last year, and it continued right through the 3yo season. Turns out the 3 yo fillies were a weak group anyway, but the boys were miles ahead.

classhandicapper · 11-02-2015, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

This is kind of what tipped off to me American Pharoah could be something special. The colts were way ahead of the fillies at 2 last year, and it continued right through the 3yo season. Turns out the 3 yo fillies were a weak group anyway, but the boys were miles ahead.

I like to accumulate PARs by class. But another way to do it for stakes is to look at the Racing Manual. It has the PARs for each stakes race. When the group keeps matching or exceeding the PAR for each race, you can be pretty sure it's not fluky.

iceknight · 11-03-2015, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

She was on my numbers.

thanks CJ.
It's always exciting to see some interesting twists in the run up to the derby and if one of the strong fillies runs in any of the big preps and wins or comes 2nd, that should give them a chance to run the derby. Does the 3lb allowance help much?