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Old 12-25-2018, 10:50 PM   #16
Buckeye
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How about the A vs. B approach thaskalos?

I agree with you (I think) that the Crist method is too complicated and demands too much money to justify it.
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Old 12-25-2018, 10:59 PM   #17
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1)
2)
3)
4)

Here is a typical "caveman" pick-4 ticket...as it would usually be posted by a TVG host. For 50-cents...it would cost $32. Could a cheaper ABC ticket be constructed...while using all the above horses?
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:10 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
1)
2)
3)
4)

Here is a typical "caveman" pick-4 ticket...as it would usually be posted by a TVG host. For 50-cents...it would cost $32. Could a cheaper ABC ticket be constructed...while using all the above horses?
Surely.

Who are the A's?
Who are the B's?
and who are the C's?
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:14 PM   #19
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Surely.

Who are the A's?
Who are the B's?
and who are the C's?
YOU decide who the As, the Bs and the Cs are. Just show me how you could include all my horses on a cheaper ticket.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:15 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
1)
2)
3)
4)

Here is a typical "caveman" pick-4 ticket...as it would usually be posted by a TVG host. For 50-cents...it would cost $32. Could a cheaper ABC ticket be constructed...while using all the above horses?

You have not designated which horses are A's, B's or C's. Think of it in terms of 1st favorite, 2nd favorite and 3rd favorite. Only I am the one deciding the favorites not the public. Yes it would be great if all 4 of my C picks won, I would be King for a day with a large payout. But the odds are that if my handicapping is any good that my more of my A races will win, less B races and less C. That is why I have assigned them A, B and C. So in theory it is more likely I'll hit with A, A, A, A or A, A, C, A etc. Constructing a ticket weighs an A, A, A, A higher than a C, C, C, C so you are not wasting money on something very unlikely to come out. The DRF ticketmaker is great. I used it a lot when we had the Aq inner dirt contests. I never won the contest but hit some pick 4's I never would have without the ticketmaker.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:17 PM   #21
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The idea is not so much that it will be cheaper but you are optimizing your chances, more efficient wagering than caveman style.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:20 PM   #22
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You have not designated which horses are A's, B's or C's. Think of it in terms of 1st favorite, 2nd favorite and 3rd favorite. Only I am the one deciding the favorites not the public. Yes it would be great if all 4 of my C picks won, I would be King for a day with a large payout. But the odds are that if my handicapping is any good that my more of my A races will win, less B races and less C. That is why I have assigned them A, B and C. So in theory it is more likely I'll hit with A, A, A, A or A, A, C, A etc. Constructing a ticket weighs an A, A, A, A higher than a C, C, C, C so you are not wasting money on something very unlikely to come out. The DRF ticketmaker is great. I used it a lot when we had the Aq inner dirt contests. I never won the contest but hit some pick 4's I never would have without the ticketmaker.
You are correct on this 098poi.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:22 PM   #23
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You have not designated which horses are A's, B's or C's. Think of it in terms of 1st favorite, 2nd favorite and 3rd favorite. Only I am the one deciding the favorites not the public. Yes it would be great if all 4 of my C picks won, I would be King for a day with a large payout. But the odds are that if my handicapping is any good that my more of my A races will win, less B races and less C. That is why I have assigned them A, B and C. So in theory it is more likely I'll hit with A, A, A, A or A, A, C, A etc. Constructing a ticket weighs an A, A, A, A higher than a C, C, C, C so you are not wasting money on something very unlikely to come out. The DRF ticketmaker is great. I used it a lot when we had the Aq inner dirt contests. I never won the contest but hit some pick 4's I never would have without the ticketmaker.
When betting the horizontals...aren't those "unlikely" horses where the big payoffs reside? If a caveman bettor really thought that he was "wasting his money" by including an unlikely horse...then he would simply leave that horse off the ticket. The caveman bettor includes the seemingly unlikely horse for a seemingly valid reason.

Look...I'm not saying here that the ABC method isn't the superior method to use. I'm just saying that it costs more money than the caveman ticket when it includes the same horses. And the larger investment can only be justified if the handicapper's skill is up to par...which usually isn't the case.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:25 PM   #24
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The idea is not so much that it will be cheaper but you are optimizing your chances, more efficient wagering than caveman style.
That's not what TLG said in his last reply to me. TLG stipulated that the ABC ticket would include more horses for a lesser cost.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:26 PM   #25
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If you're a caveman that's OK too.

No offense.

Once I get the answer to my question who the ABC's are, I'll be more than happy to construct the tickets.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:28 PM   #26
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When betting the horizontals...aren't those "unlikely" horses where the big payoffs reside? If a caveman bettor really thought that he was "wasting his money" by including an unlikely horse...then he would simply leave that horse off the ticket. The caveman bettor includes the seemingly unlikely horse for a seemingly valid reason.

Look...I'm not saying here that the ABC method isn't the superior method to use. I'm just saying that it costs more money than the caveman ticket when it includes the same horses. And the larger investment can only be justified if the handicappers skill is up to par...which too often isn't the case.



The whole point is you can use the same horses as caveman just not as often! Caveman you have every horse in every leg. ABC you don't cover every possibility and yes you might miss the big score once in a while but over time you should hit more bets with ABC. People can bet how they want but I think ABC for the amateur is a much smarter way to go.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:28 PM   #27
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If you're a caveman that's OK too.

No offense.

Once I get the answer to my question who the ABC's are, I'll be more than happy to construct the tickets.
I am not a caveman bettor...so, I take no offense. And I already told you that you can pick whatever A-B-C horses you want to choose among the ones that I provided in my example.

Pick whatever A-B-C horses you want...and put your ticket together. Let's see what it costs...and what it looks like.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:31 PM   #28
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You can go to DRF and play around with it. I don't even know if you need a DRF login, which I have. You can go right now and experiment with tomorrows races. You pick the horses per leg and base bet and total you want to spend. If the bet exceeds your total it will let you know then you slice and dice till you have what you want.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:33 PM   #29
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The whole point is you can use the same horses as caveman just not as often! Caveman you have every horse in every leg. ABC you don't cover every possibility and yes you might miss the big score once in a while but over time you should hit more bets with ABC. People can bet how they want but I think ABC for the amateur is a much smarter way to go.
I am not arguing with you, friend...I am arguing with TLG...who last replied to me that "the ABC method actually allows for more horses and a lower investment". If TLG had stated, as you've done, that the cheaper ABC ticket would necessarily exclude certain "unlikely" horses...then I wouldn't be disagreeing with him either.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:38 PM   #30
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Santa Anita Late Pick 4:

/ / / = $75.00

Leg 1: A's: 5 8/5 ,7 12-1 B's 8 20-1

Leg 2: A: 7 4-1 B: 3 5/2

Leg 3: A's: 4 20-1,10 10-1,13 7/2 B's: 5 12-1, 8 12-1

Leg 4: A's: 1 10-1,5 8-1 B's: 3 5-1, 9 12-1,10 20-1

1 / / / $1.50 = $18.00

3 / / / $.50 = $3.00

4 / / / $1.00 = $8.00

5 / / / $1.00 = $18.00

6 / / / $.50 = $2.00

7 / / / $.50 = $4.50

8 / / / $1.00 = $12.00

9 / / / $.50 = $6.00

10 / / / $.50 = $3.00

Total $74.50

For the caveman ticket played for a $1.00 the cost is $75.00. The ABC method is $.50 cheaper. In one play I am singled to the . The other way my A's are played for $.50 more and I have a back up in the second leg.
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