Wagering at Beginning of a Meet: Attack or Watch?

[hogoffate]

I'm really excited about the upcoming Oaklawn Park meet that begins this coming Friday. I feel I have a pretty good handle on the successful trainers and their avenues of success. I'm thinking of being aggressive early.

How do you guys play the opening of your favorite meet? Aggressive or wait until things "settle down" so to speak.

Any thoughts / ideas are appreciated.

[EMD4ME]

I attack ALL my meets early as I am extremely comfortable at my few tracks.

ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK !!!!! Once the public knows, the value is gone.

[JustRalph]

8-10 years ago I used to play this meet early for one reason. Identifying short horses at short prices. Lots of horses fade in the stretch at low odds. That stretch used to seem so long.........until they get a few starts......many would fade.

Haven't played it in years though........

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by hogoffate

I'm really excited about the upcoming Oaklawn Park meet that begins this coming Friday. I feel I have a pretty good handle on the successful trainers and their avenues of success. I'm thinking of being aggressive early.

How do you guys play the opening of your favorite meet? Aggressive or wait until things "settle down" so to speak.

Any thoughts / ideas are appreciated.

Though it's an individual decision I approach every new meeting a little reserved, at least for the first few days to see how the track is playing and riders etc. This principle has saved me many a losing wager through out the years.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by hogoffate

I'm really excited about the upcoming Oaklawn Park meet that begins this coming Friday. I feel I have a pretty good handle on the successful trainers and their avenues of success. I'm thinking of being aggressive early.

How do you guys play the opening of your favorite meet? Aggressive or wait until things "settle down" so to speak.

Any thoughts / ideas are appreciated.

I vote for early. Overlays are more plentiful at the start. After awhile, things settle down and all the cappers figure it out.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by hogoffate

I'm really excited about the upcoming Oaklawn Park meet that begins this coming Friday. I feel I have a pretty good handle on the successful trainers and their avenues of success. I'm thinking of being aggressive early.

How do you guys play the opening of your favorite meet? Aggressive or wait until things "settle down" so to speak.

Any thoughts / ideas are appreciated.

I personally prefer to wait a couple of weeks especially at tracks where there’s a lot of time in between race meets and where horses will be shipping in from many other tracks. I like the idea of letting the horses having a run over the track. Not because I’m interested in knowing how they performed, but because it gives the connections an idea of what shape their horses might be in, and how they handled the racing surface in conjunction with their recent preparations, especially if they’ve been laid off a while.

As far as I’m concerned when there are certain unknowns, handicappers are only adding more uncertainly to their judgment calls because as outsiders they have no idea what the connections have planned for their animals. Too many handicappers seem to be under the impression that every time a horse is entered in a race that it’s trying to win. This is a very foolish mistake. So while an entry with a M/L of 5/2 going off at 6/1 may seem to be an appealing overlay, there could very well be a good reason for the lack of support.

Finding overlays or good value is not something that’s just useful (or even more prevalent) during the beginning of a meet. It should be an everyday priority no matter when or where you’re playing. How players determine these type of plays and successfully take advantage of them is the real personal preference. I highly doubt a seasoned player investing more then some fun money is going to get seriously involved in guesswork. Of course there are gamblers who will play anything that might appeal to them.

[AndyC]

Could there be a better time to bet? When confusion reigns among the majority of players those willing to do the necessary homework are generously rewarded.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by hogoffate

I'm really excited about the upcoming Oaklawn Park meet that begins this coming Friday. I feel I have a pretty good handle on the successful trainers and their avenues of success. I'm thinking of being aggressive early.

How do you guys play the opening of your favorite meet? Aggressive or wait until things "settle down" so to speak.

Any thoughts / ideas are appreciated.

The best person to answer the above question is YOU! Have you successfully attacked the Oaklawn meet from the very start before?

[HuggingTheRail]

Early!!

For me, most of my wagering is on my home track (Hastings). They race from Apr - Oct each year. A few horses go to Turf Paradise, Golden Gate, or Portland for the winter, but most of the starters in April have not raced over the winter.

While the horses coming in with recent races are race fit, they are often over bet. Local horses who have been farmed trained, or trained in the Interior of the province (at Desert Park racetrack in Osoyoos) will sometimes win with nice prices....

[green80]

Oaklawn is a tough track to play, I don't think it makes any difference if it is early or late in the season. There are a lot of horses coming in from the local farms in addition to the big stables coming in. In my opinion, Oaklawn gets the best group of horses for a meet in all the south so it's hard to single out that winner a lot of times.

[pondman]

I wouldn't hesitate to play. But I'd be screening out racing, just as I would at any other track. When I see 14 horses in a maiden race I'm going to say no. The math on that would be negative.

[Bennie]

if you have the funds and truly believe you have a good handle on trainer intent then go for it. You will get much better value early.
I personally play certain tracks early but won't touch others until a few weeks into the meet. When horses start shipping North to South or South to North I usually hold back when horses start coming from all over. I follow NY racing for the most part and have no qualms about wagering any time of the year. Other tracks not so much. As Thaskalos said, the best person to ask is yourself.

[JohnGalt1]

For all tracks opening--not just Oaklawn--there are plusses and minuses whether to wait or dive in early.

My home track is Canterbury. first day will be KY Derby day. Horses come from Iowa, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida and those who last raced in Minnesota at the end of the previous meet.

Most will not have raced for at least a month and many MN bred horses not since August.

Jump right in issues---

1)Many races look like chaos races to some handicappers who aren't sure what to do with shippers and lay off horses.

2)Are the horses racing fit?

3)Are they meant to win early or is the first, or second race a paid work out?

4)Are the speed figures from last summer worth using for this year? Especially for the now 3 year olds whose figures were from 2 year old races?

5)Are we willing to pass race after race? Or every race and just throw our work in the trash can?

***** An aside. Every year I go through my handicapping from 3 years ago before I throw it away. I keep 3 years of data.

So this year I'm reviewing my 2013 data.

In January 2013 I handicapped a Gulfstream card where about 80% of horses were off lay offs, figures were taken from races a month or more previously. Every bet I made lost. I'm not a good guesser when data is limited or questionable.

6)Are there changes this year for your track? Is there a new track superintendent or racing secretary? A new dirt or turf course? Santa Anita's turf course was new last year. How did we adapt to the faster surface? Any new wagers? Can we gain an edge before every one learns the best way to play it?

7)And finally, how well or poorly do we do when tracks open or re-open after a short shut down (ex. Hawthorne)? Our records will tell us, just like our records tell us we suck or kill with tirfectas, or pick 4's.

[cnollfan]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Could there be a better time to bet? When confusion reigns among the majority of players those willing to do the necessary homework are generously rewarded.

Agree. Although an avid follower of Oaklawn, I am out of state. As the meet goes on I feel at more of a disadvantage versus those who have been there every day.

[ebcorde]

swear you should watch.