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Old 12-12-2016, 11:10 PM   #91
EasyGoer89
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
I know I'm babbling but in the interest of this race...........


This 4 has more of my attention now. Is a 3 year old in DEC, who's last FAST track Dirt fig was earned back on April 1st. Using Beyers, a 57, is no where near the peak figures of the others BUT APRIL to DEC is a long time (in terms of development/maturity).

When you add in the mud (IMHO bias assisted win in May) figure of a 70, this horse's A race can more than be enough for this field.

I have some interesting notes on this horse :

Jan 29-off beat slow, rushed up with a ton of speed, making winner move early and did so in the best part of the race.

Won in next start.

April 1st, IMHO poor rail but was so handy the entire half mile, rating well and finishing well when asked.

At this point, Little Bear Cat is my pick.
I noticed the 10 is an anti-HFC on the inner, does this mean anything at all that she's not so great on the inner track?
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Old 12-12-2016, 11:25 PM   #92
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when you're picking a horse every race, r.o.i is a ridiculous measurement.....no serious player would play every race.
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Old 12-12-2016, 11:32 PM   #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by appistappis
when you're picking a horse every race, r.o.i is a ridiculous measurement.....no serious player would play every race.
Yes yes yes. I've been given a round of bullets, a few grenades, a rocket launcher up my butt, a nuclear missile in this thread and a reminder that no serious player would bet every race and that ROI is a ridiculous measurement.

We've covered that. Thanks for reminding us. Would you care to add anything to the discussion of race 7 at AQU Wed?
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Old 12-12-2016, 11:37 PM   #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EasyGoer89
I noticed the 10 is an anti-HFC on the inner, does this mean anything at all that she's not so great on the inner track?
She ran decently early in her career on the inner (2 starts in 13/14) and she had 2 stakes races in 15 on the inner. Could just be a fluke thing.

If you compare the size of her VS. the 6 (they ran together on the main track recently) I prefer a horse the size of the 10 vs the size of the 6. They tend to corner better on the inner. Now, if there is a dead rail bias/dead speed bias, give me the bigger horse that will probably go wider on the turns.
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Old 12-12-2016, 11:43 PM   #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by appistappis
when you're picking a horse every race, r.o.i is a ridiculous measurement.....no serious player would play every race.
Should every home run hitter not take every at bat?

If one is a dilettante and plays multiple tracks, then I agree.

But I wonder about the case where one plays a single track and is immersed in pretty much everything having to do with the race analysis aspect. As a 'lone' handicapper, you can watch races all you want but you probably don't usually have other 'experts' to bounce opinions off of. And, there's a difference between watching a race for notes and watching a race, over and over, for the purpose of dissecting it on one or more programs. And discussing it with any number of others that have put in an equal amount of work. Not to mention being on the track for racing all year round and knowing any number of trainers and owners.

Now, I'm not positing that winning while betting every race is easy. And, I'm certainly not disparaging Serling's efforts as I respect his knowledge of the game. I just wonder how much his 'advantages' mitigate his 'disadvantages'.

What's even more interesting to me is that someone so immersed in the game probably has consistently very strong opinions. I would think that this person would be able to identify strong plays each week and hit a high percentage of them. What's realistic for this type of effort? 4 out of 10 @ 3:1. 4 out of 10 @ 5:2? Is that so farfetched? Why are people putting in all this work playing exotics (p4's, 5's, 6's, supers, etc.) rather than just taking their high ROI for win bets and making a killing?
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Old 12-12-2016, 11:49 PM   #96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rsetup
Should every home run hitter not take every at bat?

If one is a dilettante and plays multiple tracks, then I agree.

But I wonder about the case where one plays a single track and is immersed in pretty much everything having to do with the race analysis aspect. As a 'lone' handicapper, you can watch races all you want but you probably don't usually have other 'experts' to bounce opinions off of. And, there's a difference between watching a race for notes and watching a race, over and over, for the purpose of dissecting it on one or more programs. And discussing it with any number of others that have put in an equal amount of work. Not to mention being on the track for racing all year round and knowing any number of trainers and owners.

Now, I'm not positing that winning while betting every race is easy. And, I'm certainly not disparaging Serling's efforts as I respect his knowledge of the game. I just wonder how much his 'advantages' mitigate his 'disadvantages'.

What's even more interesting to me is that someone so immersed in the game probably has consistently very strong opinions. I would think that this person would be able to identify strong plays each week and hit a high percentage of them. What's realistic for this type of effort? 4 out of 10 @ 3:1. 4 out of 10 @ 5:2? Is that so farfetched? Why are people putting in all this work playing exotics (p4's, 5's, 6's, supers, etc.) rather than just taking their high ROI for win bets and making a killing?



For myself, I'd rather weigh out my opinions in well constructed Pick 4's 5's and 6's and I have no fear when it comes to putting in what's needed to make the wager. I will also bet to win but for me there is way more value in the picks.

Sunday is the latest example:

5/1 X 3/1 X 2/1 X 4/5 X 2/1. Parlay was about $850. Pick 5 paid $1800.
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Old 12-12-2016, 11:52 PM   #97
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Easygoer 89.

Who do you like in this race? Why?
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Old 12-13-2016, 12:47 AM   #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EMD4ME
Easygoer 89.

Who do you like in this race? Why?

tri's

2 5 10 with 1 2 5 6 7 10 with 4

1 2 5 6 7 10 with 2 5 10 with 4

and a super

2 5 10 with 1 2 5 6 7 10 with all with 4

1 2 5 6 7 10 with 2 5 10 with all with 4

and one more tri

2 5 6 10 w 2 5 6 10 with 4

I like your pick on the 4 as the 'action horse'

The top 3 chalks all appear to be faster than the 4, so if the 4 runs her race, she might finish underneath at boxcars.
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Old 12-13-2016, 12:49 AM   #99
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I can't pass up a race being discussed--it's almost like there's a forum prize for picking the winner .

I gotta agree with JHS-- SPLENDID GOLD 4-1 looks very good here.

-Comes off a win 11 days ago--shows he came out of that race sound
-WxW win... increased his lead at every call
-Perfectly spotted here today
-Claimed off last by Trainer showing flat-bet profit first off claim
-5 for 6 @ today's distance
-Better than 50% W/P lifetime

You know I gotta throw a spot-play in here...'Gold qualifies for my EARLY /LATE play = he led 1st call of his last race--and has the highest LATE pace figure of the entire field here today.
Also rsetup's UNCLE SOUTHERN figures right there as the main danger-- SPLENDID GOLD to Win w/ - straight exacta saver

Good luck boys--NCG

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 12-13-2016 at 12:50 AM.
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Old 12-13-2016, 02:12 AM   #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
I can't pass up a race being discussed--it's almost like there's a forum prize for picking the winner .

I gotta agree with JHS-- SPLENDID GOLD 4-1 looks very good here.

-Comes off a win 11 days ago--shows he came out of that race sound
-WxW win... increased his lead at every call
-Perfectly spotted here today
-Claimed off last by Trainer showing flat-bet profit first off claim
-5 for 6 @ today's distance
-Better than 50% W/P lifetime

You know I gotta throw a spot-play in here...'Gold qualifies for my EARLY /LATE play = he led 1st call of his last race--and has the highest LATE pace figure of the entire field here today.
Also rsetup's UNCLE SOUTHERN figures right there as the main danger-- SPLENDID GOLD to Win w/ - straight exacta saver

Good luck boys--NCG
She also freaked on Inner track w today's jock in Feb of 2016, maybe she can even move up over this surface. She's strong for sure.
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Old 12-13-2016, 08:59 AM   #101
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Non Finisce has a real shot in this race, in my opinion She should get a good trip on or near the lead.She has shown she can win slightly off the pace. Her last race, she was against better and had a wide trip. She is now off a 164 day layoff, but has won off a 156 day layoff. She has run well on the inner breaking her maiden at 6f. She is also coming out of a key race, where the winner and show horses won and improved.On my numbers 4 horses out of that race improved their numbers in their next race.To me the race looks like a legitimate key race.
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Old 12-13-2016, 09:00 AM   #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EMD4ME
[/B]

Sunday is the latest example:

5/1 X 3/1 X 2/1 X 4/5 X 2/1. Parlay was about $850. Pick 5 paid $1800.
The major advantage of the Picks is the ability to leverage multiple value oriented opinions into greater value than a win bet. But since most exotic players spread a lot trying to hit the ticket and manage their bankroll, they dilute that potential value advantage, wind up just bucking the higher take in the exotics, and make it less likely they will win at the end of the year. (it's different for someone like you that excels at both handicapping and ticket construction)

The Picks will typically pay more than the parlay not because they are a better deal mathematically. It's because if you theoretically played a parlay you would be put a lot more money through the window taxed at a lower rate.
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Old 12-13-2016, 09:22 AM   #103
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Don't like to pick chalk but Riot Worthy looks like she could take this
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Old 12-13-2016, 11:13 AM   #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EMD4ME
I know I'm babbling but in the interest of this race...........
I could easily spend an hour on that race and not feel very good about my selection.
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Old 12-13-2016, 01:01 PM   #105
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Taking a shot with little bear cat and lakeside sunset
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