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Old 03-13-2018, 04:06 PM   #31
dilanesp
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Originally Posted by exactatom View Post
I look at Justify as I did Curlin? Both unraced at 2 year olds and appear to be loaded with talent.

However, Curlin ran in two Derby preps, the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby. Justify will be facing quality competition only once.

However, when the Derby came around Curlin just did not get the job done. He improved from the Derby to the Preakness and took off from there.
This, to me, is completely wrong, and indeed, is an indicator of what is wrong with these "theories".

If the curse of Apollo were a real handicapping factor, Curlin should not have gotten close. Remember, Street Sense, who won the race, got extremely lucky. Without that dream run up the rail under Calvin Borel, he probably doesn't win the thing.

So Curlin got beat by two horses, one of whom only beat him because of racing luck. Curlin himself beat 16 horses in the race. 16 well seasoned horses. 16 horses with more starts. 16 horses with 2 year old form. 16 horses that the "theory" says he could never beat.

If you want a workable theory, you need to account for who runs well in the Derby, not simply who wins it. If the curse of Apollo really worked as a handicapping angle, it should apply just as much to hitting the board as to winning it.

And if you want to study a handicapping angle, saying "X out of 40 Derby winners" is basically guaranteed to be statistically invalid. You need to include every Derby runner up, every Derby third place finisher, etc., in the study. In fact, you should include last and next to last and third from last finishes-- if the handicapping factor is really dispositive, not only should they be less likely to win, they should also be more likely to finish last.

The reality is that if you start doing this, you will find that the theories don't "hold". For instance, dosage, even in its heyday, was absolutely terrible at predicting who would finish in the money in the Derby. It only "forecast" the Derby winner. Which basically proves that it was a random effect of variance.

Similarly, if a handicapping angle works on the Derby, it should also work on the Preakness, which is basically the exact same race as the Derby, run two weeks later. Yet Curlin won the Preakness! Indeed, he ran the fastest correctly timed Preakness in history.

The bottom line problem with all of these angles is the assumption that the Derby isn't a normal horse race. You don't look at Storm Cat versus Raise a Native sire lines, or 2 year old experience, or number of starts in the 3 year old season when handicapping a $16,000 claiming race on a Friday at Santa Anita. Why do these irrelevant factors suddenly not only become relevant, but controlling, in this ONE race in May at Churchill Downs? There's no reason to do this other than people really want to gamble on the Derby and not pass the race because of its psychological and societal importance, and these "angles" give people an excuse to do it.
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Old 03-13-2018, 07:10 PM   #32
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This, to me, is completely wrong, and indeed, is an indicator of what is wrong with these "theories".

If the curse of Apollo were a real handicapping factor, Curlin should not have gotten close. Remember, Street Sense, who won the race, got extremely lucky. Without that dream run up the rail under Calvin Borel, he probably doesn't win the thing.

So Curlin got beat by two horses, one of whom only beat him because of racing luck. Curlin himself beat 16 horses in the race. 16 well seasoned horses. 16 horses with more starts. 16 horses with 2 year old form. 16 horses that the "theory" says he could never beat.
Curlin: Raise A Native. Street Sense: Raise A Native. Steet Sense followed up that effort, dream trip or not, by getting nosed in the Preakness. The Raise A Native exacta. The theory or angle doesn't suggest Curlin couldn't finish well in the Derby. It suggests the probably of winning is lower based on the assumption a horse needs some foundation to nail a 10F race. Further, there's often reasons for non racing at two. Temperament or late maturation could play a role. Regardless of reason, the angle has worked and Curlin was defeated in the Derby.

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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
If you want a workable theory, you need to account for who runs well in the Derby, not simply who wins it. If the curse of Apollo really worked as a handicapping angle, it should apply just as much to hitting the board as to winning it.

And if you want to study a handicapping angle, saying "X out of 40 Derby winners" is basically guaranteed to be statistically invalid. You need to include every Derby runner up, every Derby third place finisher, etc., in the study. In fact, you should include last and next to last and third from last finishes-- if the handicapping factor is really dispositive, not only should they be less likely to win, they should also be more likely to finish last.
It's far easier to hit the board then it is to win. This is why the show pool typically pays far less than the win pool. Nobody ever said a non-raced two year old cannot perform well. The doubters simply question their edge. It's perfectly reasonable until they start wearing roses.


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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
The reality is that if you start doing this, you will find that the theories don't "hold". For instance, dosage, even in its heyday, was absolutely terrible at predicting who would finish in the money in the Derby. It only "forecast" the Derby winner. Which basically proves that it was a random effect of variance.
That's the idea. Pick the damn winner. That is, unless you enjoy making place and show bets. All the boxcar gimmick wagers require picking the winner. If some pattern makes the job easier then I'm game. [/QUOTE]

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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Similarly, if a handicapping angle works on the Derby, it should also work on the Preakness, which is basically the exact same race as the Derby, run two weeks later. Yet Curlin won the Preakness! Indeed, he ran the fastest correctly timed Preakness in history.
Fact of the matter is many Derby angles carry well into the Preakness and Belmont. The Preakness is NOT even close to the same race as the Derby. It is shorter and less crowded. Many Derby runners skip it while new horses come in. Who won it last year? That's right. Raise A Native with Buckpasser-x.

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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
The bottom line problem with all of these angles is the assumption that the Derby isn't a normal horse race. You don't look at Storm Cat versus Raise a Native sire lines, or 2 year old experience, or number of starts in the 3 year old season when handicapping a $16,000 claiming race on a Friday at Santa Anita. Why do these irrelevant factors suddenly not only become relevant, but controlling, in this ONE race in May at Churchill Downs? There's no reason to do this other than people really want to gamble on the Derby and not pass the race because of its psychological and societal importance, and these "angles" give people an excuse to do it.
I look at all that stuff when wagering on younger horses. That said, these claimers are not running at 10F. I might look for Speightstown of a lightly raced horse in a sprint race or a Tapit stretching out to 8.5F.

Care to share how you wager the Derby or are you going to keep dumping on existing thoughts?
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Old 03-13-2018, 07:23 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
This, to me, is completely wrong, and indeed, is an indicator of what is wrong with these "theories".

If the curse of Apollo were a real handicapping factor, Curlin should not have gotten close. Remember, Street Sense, who won the race, got extremely lucky. Without that dream run up the rail under Calvin Borel, he probably doesn't win the thing.

So Curlin got beat by two horses, one of whom only beat him because of racing luck. Curlin himself beat 16 horses in the race. 16 well seasoned horses. 16 horses with more starts. 16 horses with 2 year old form. 16 horses that the "theory" says he could never beat.

If you want a workable theory, you need to account for who runs well in the Derby, not simply who wins it. If the curse of Apollo really worked as a handicapping angle, it should apply just as much to hitting the board as to winning it.

And if you want to study a handicapping angle, saying "X out of 40 Derby winners" is basically guaranteed to be statistically invalid. You need to include every Derby runner up, every Derby third place finisher, etc., in the study. In fact, you should include last and next to last and third from last finishes-- if the handicapping factor is really dispositive, not only should they be less likely to win, they should also be more likely to finish last.

The reality is that if you start doing this, you will find that the theories don't "hold". For instance, dosage, even in its heyday, was absolutely terrible at predicting who would finish in the money in the Derby. It only "forecast" the Derby winner. Which basically proves that it was a random effect of variance.

Similarly, if a handicapping angle works on the Derby, it should also work on the Preakness, which is basically the exact same race as the Derby, run two weeks later. Yet Curlin won the Preakness! Indeed, he ran the fastest correctly timed Preakness in history.

The bottom line problem with all of these angles is the assumption that the Derby isn't a normal horse race. You don't look at Storm Cat versus Raise a Native sire lines, or 2 year old experience, or number of starts in the 3 year old season when handicapping a $16,000 claiming race on a Friday at Santa Anita. Why do these irrelevant factors suddenly not only become relevant, but controlling, in this ONE race in May at Churchill Downs? There's no reason to do this other than people really want to gamble on the Derby and not pass the race because of its psychological and societal importance, and these "angles" give people an excuse to do it.
Alot of what you say is true, BUT this is the first time these horses are running 1 1/4 miles and all of these horses to this point have been pointing to this one day. The derby is not like the Preakness, Pimlico is a 'quirky' track that seems to be more favorable to certain types of horses. Its a smaller field and not nearly as tough of a race. If you run the Storm Cat vs Raise A Native numbers and include top 2 finishers it favors Raise A Native even more. Its not a statistical anomaly like the 17 post. Its bloodlines and breading and it matters in handicapping the derby. Will a Storm Cat win the Derby someday or maybe even this year? 100% absolutely! But if you play the odds its a much better chance a RAN will. 17 of 19 horses in the past 10 exactas ran 38 flat or less in the last 3/8 of there final prep (Excluding Eight Belles who did not run at 1 1/8 in final prep) is that by chance too? There are some angles that have merritt and some that dont.
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Old 03-13-2018, 07:49 PM   #34
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Here is a good video about Justify

http://derbypowerrankings.com/acloserlook.htm
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Old 03-14-2018, 12:56 AM   #35
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Alot of what you say is true, BUT this is the first time these horses are running 1 1/4 miles and all of these horses to this point have been pointing to this one day. The derby is not like the Preakness, Pimlico is a 'quirky' track that seems to be more favorable to certain types of horses. Its a smaller field and not nearly as tough of a race. If you run the Storm Cat vs Raise A Native numbers and include top 2 finishers it favors Raise A Native even more. Its not a statistical anomaly like the 17 post. Its bloodlines and breading and it matters in handicapping the derby. Will a Storm Cat win the Derby someday or maybe even this year? 100% absolutely! But if you play the odds its a much better chance a RAN will. 17 of 19 horses in the past 10 exactas ran 38 flat or less in the last 3/8 of there final prep (Excluding Eight Belles who did not run at 1 1/8 in final prep) is that by chance too? There are some angles that have merritt and some that dont.
If the Derby is so different from the Preakness, how come 15 of the last 39 Derby winners to run in the Prraakness won it? My answer is small sample size, but you know....
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Old 03-16-2018, 04:02 PM   #36
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Justify tentatively pointed for Arkansas Derby. Read about it at Horse Racing Nation just a little bit ago. Can't wait... Approximately a month out!! Can't wait!!!
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Old 03-16-2018, 08:48 PM   #37
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Justify tentatively pointed for Arkansas Derby. Read about it at Horse Racing Nation just a little bit ago. Can't wait... Approximately a month out!! Can't wait!!!
Would of rather of seen him vs Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie but no reason for Baffert to do that obviously.
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Old 03-17-2018, 03:49 PM   #38
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Not only does he have the Apollo curse against him, he also has the Storm Cat 0-fer against him. Sprint heavy top of his pedigree, and a do-nothing Derby bms line. A lot of foolish money in Pool 3, especially at 6-1.
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Old 03-17-2018, 08:27 PM   #39
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Would of rather of seen him vs Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie but no reason for Baffert to do that obviously.
In the famous words of Football Coach Dennis Green (may the Coach Rest in Peace) I firmly believe that when he does meet up with the likes of Bolt d' Oro and McKinzie if they could talk they would more than likely say something along the lines of "He was who we thought he was". (Coach Green, "They were who we thought they were".
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Old 03-18-2018, 02:23 PM   #40
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If Justify wins his 9F prep race and looks good doing so, there is no reason he can't win the Derby.
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:46 AM   #41
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A very interesting look at Justify the horse from somewhat of a historical perspective with concern to his first couple of outings as a young racehorse.

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Old 04-02-2018, 11:54 AM   #42
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What a specimen. Confirmed for the Santa Anita Derby this weekend... Can't wait!!!

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...nita_Derby_123
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Old 04-02-2018, 01:28 PM   #43
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What a specimen. Confirmed for the Santa Anita Derby this weekend... Can't wait!!!

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...nita_Derby_123
Thankfully no longer what could have been a walkover with the absence of McKinzie. I have been less impressed with Justify as others but should the horse do one of two things I look for in the Santa Anita Derby then I'll be impressed. First, win or lose, does the horse run 6-9F in less than 38 seconds. Second, is the final time less than 1:48. That second point may be less reliable this year as the track seems to be running slower. In recent decades, Santa Anita to Kentucky Derby winners tended to hit or break that 148.00 barrier, most recently Chrome @147.52 and I'll Have Another @147.88. This in contrast to Dortmund @148.73 and Goldencents 148.78. Tote bomber Giacomo in 2005 did hit on point 1 coming home in approximately 37.6 but missed my final clock angle.
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