Skinner Draws In

[Longshot]

Wild on Ice injured training this AM.

Skinner In

[Michael]

Euthanized

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ing-derby-work

[f2tornado]

Bummer to those connections. Skinner is just as fast as the relative chalk coming out of California and will offer a lot more value. Same trainer who brought Giacomo to the winners circle at a monster price and this one actually looks more logical. Espinoza is not a stranger to smelling the roses either. Sheets players will like the fact the horse got the biggest TG out of the SA Derby.

[Aerocraft67]

All due respect to the departed, he really had the least chance, and factored to be 20th choice. There's infinitely more interest in Skinner. A mid-priced contender vs. hopeless longshot. Boosts the whole field's value a little.

I was going to guess 20-1 or less vs. 60-1 or more. DRF just updated its line with Skinner at 15-1 (Wild on Ice was 50-1). Of course, others had to change, too. But not all changes were upward. Here are before and after for those that changed, with revisions lower in red:

Forte 7/2 from 3-1
Tapit Trice 6-1 from 5-1
Derma Sotogake 8-1 from 6-1
Practical Move 8-1
Angel of Empire 8-1
Kingsbarns 12-1
Verifying 20-1 from 15-1 (moves from 7th choice to 10th/11th)
Mage 15-1 from 20-1
Two Phil's 15-1 from 20-1
Hit Show 20-1
Confidence Game 30-1
Reincarnate 30-1
Disarm 30-1
Rocket Can 30-1 from 50-1
Lord Miles 30-1 from 50-1
Jace's Road 50-1
Raise Cain 50-1
Sun Thunder 50-1
Continuar 50-1

Basically, Skinner jumped ahead of Verifying, along with Mage and Two Phil's.

[burnsy]

Agree, that’s a horse worth looking at . Moved early in prep, lightly raced , improvement possible. Distance probably not a problem.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Agree, that’s a horse worth looking at . Moved early in prep, lightly raced , improvement possible. Distance probably not a problem.

He's a solid horse. If he gets a decent setup, I could see him having a shot for 4th or so.

In some of those races, a horse like Practical Move had such a dream trip and beat Skinner with ease, where Skinner did about the same amount of running due to the trip.

Skinner wasn't unluckly. He made his bed there. The difference in tactical speed and running style is what resulted in those scenarios.

Skinner also had a nice looking race in the Del Mar Futurity.
If you just look at the flow in a vacuum, Skinner went against the grain and did some running against nice horses.

Cave Rock ran a '120' TimeformUS figure in the Del Mar Futurity, and that would fit in for this Kentucky Derby field.

Again, in the Del Mar Futurity; Skinner didn't get early position, and the 'merry-go-round' flow was very much due to Cave Rock's easy and big performance, with stablemate Havenameltdown basically chasing him. The pace was honest.
Simply, the two best horses that day were the Baffert stablemates. The herd chased further back in mid-pack and no one other than skinner did much running from off the pace. Skinner ran a solid race that day as well, but it wasn't as pretty as his raw chart appeared.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, there were a couple of horses in the race that Skinner deserved to be ahead of. I think this year exposed a few issues with the current system.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO, there were a couple of horses in the race that Skinner deserved to be ahead of. I think this year exposed a few issues with the current system.

Eh, I don't know. I think the points system is fine. Probably better overall than the Graded Stakes earnings method used for decades when horses winning 7F races were getting in and were nothing but burners and no chancers.

The races and points are all out there for everybody to see. Everybody pretty much knows you need 40 or so to guarantee a spot.

There are 15 races with 50 points or more given to the winner. Win one of those and you are in. I like that more points are given in the races of greater distance. Firing Line went to the Sunland Derby to avoid Pharoah and Dortmund. Skinner could have easily done the same to avoid Practical Move. Thankfully he is in, (albeit due to an unfortunate tragedy). Would be nice to see Mandarin Hero in, but when you take a single swing you have to deal with a loss by a nose.

Every year there are a couple that don't seem to belong, but that will never change. I think this year's field is pretty deep and competitive. Not many that would surprise me if they won unlike last year. Then again, I thought last year it was really down to about 5 or 6 horses (Epicenter, Mo Donegal, Zandon, White Abarrio, Messier, Taiba) with legitimate shots and the shocker rolled home.

[Aerocraft67]

Just when I was resolved to include Skinner as a late-running companion to my top choices, I see he's faced no more than eight since his first race against nine (which he lost). He has only passed six horses. He does possess the best TFUS rating for late pace and among the top speed figures overall, but can he pass 18 horses?

[bks]

CJ can correct, but if I recall correctly Country House possessed the best TFUS late pace figures in the Derby he "won", though he was also well placed throughout the race. Skinner won't be. He'll need a really fast pace.

He'll also need to save ground around the first turn, which could be a problem too.