Breeders' Cup Short priced (3-1 or less) Vulnerable or Throw outs?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Corniche an obvious throw out.

Allan

A lot of people on my Twitter TL hate Corniche and are also trying to beat Gamine. That always makes me kind of skeptical that there will be any real value keying against them. They may get bet in line with their chances. I prefer being on a different island all alone, but I’m not seeing many short priced horses I hate, at least in the dirt races. I didn’t start looking at turf yet.

[LemonSoupKid]

This is a great thread. I'll weigh in once I start cappin' more thoroughly tomorrow and Wednesday.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by SteveBykATRDerbyTrail

JUVY FILLY TURF: With Diamond Wow & Zain Claudette out, Haughty and Helens Well are in..

Helens Well is a pace-dependent closer, but she is a big price, and has caught my eye.
May do something like picks/picks/HW picks/picks/picks/HW at minimum wager sizes...

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maybe use Helens Well on top of a Multi, and/or a Double or something if it's really generous. Sometimes the race falls apart and they win, and pay well, and you are holding $5 worth of gimmicks keying on the bottom only.

[Robert Fischer]

*8th Race, not 6th

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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 11-01-2021 at 05:50 PM.

[Andy Asaro]

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Last edited by Andy Asaro; 11-02-2021 at 09:11 AM.

[Andy Asaro]

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[Robert Fischer]

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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

[Immortal6]

Juvy turf sprint) gotta play against Averly Jane, think the “other” Ward is the better horse. The 2 Euros that make the most sense are Go Bears Go and Armor (3,6,7)

Juvy fillies) Echo Zulu is a beast, Ass man giving ride to Rosario tell me he has plenty of confidence in the horse and none in Santana. One favorite I can’t play against.

Juvy Fillies Turf) Cairo Memories with a win on the surface, should get a good trip, and looks to have some kick and fight to her. Koala Princess stretches out gets Rosario, love the breeding going a mile. Haughty will take some CB money but I think the horse is gonna be really frickin good, could be her coming out party…Chad wouldn’t enter her if he didn’t think she was ready. Lots of Euro’s to choose from in here but the best to me looks to be Mise En Scene. (2,9,11,13)

Juvenile) lots of people playing against Corniche but I don’t get it. Baffert at home here and this horse will likely clear from outside post. Can see Jack Christopher and Corniche in a tough duel for the final half mile with one but not both spitting the bit, could see some bombers underneath, but not in the win spot. (1,12/1,3,5,11,12/1,3,5,10,11,12) tri

Juvenile turf) Albahr is 6-1 on the ML and if I get anything close to that come post time I’m gonna drop a lot of cash on him. If he were guaranteed a clean trip he would be an easy single for me. Others with a realistic win shot in my book, Dakota’s Gold took advantage of a pace collapse last out but could do the same in this race by getting first jump. Tiz the Bomb is a horse I want to play against and may ultimately do so, but he is such a grinder that has faced large fields he is hard to ignore. Mackinnon is the horse for course, but hasn’t beat much, however has done it stylishly. Last out in the Zuma beach I was counting my money betting against him when he clipped heels and was checked badly in the back stretch but was so damn game he blew their doors off in the stretch (2,3,4,6)

[Andy Asaro]

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[Andy Asaro]

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[Andy Asaro]

He has to go from the rail or risk getting bombarded with kickback. The kickback here and at Santa Anita is really bad

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[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

He has to go from the rail or risk getting bombarded with kickback. The kickback here and at Santa Anita is really bad


https://twitter.com/trifectabox/stat...50648215891978

Unless someone takes a huge leap up, imo JC is the best horse. But there's a lot of speed outside of him that is likely to be aggressive (Baffert). He certainly doesn't want to get involved in an all out duel, but he doesn't want to get buried inside with the best horse or allow someone else to control the pace.

I would come out aggressively, but I'd back off if Corniche, Pinehurst, or someone else is hell bent on the lead. Then I'd try to get outside to stalk as soon as an opportunity presents itself. You don't want to give it to Baffert, but you don't want to kill yourself either...unless you think JC is Seattle Slew....then you can just go and not worry about it .

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Unless someone takes a huge leap up, imo JC is the best horse. But there's a lot of speed outside of him that is likely to be aggressive (Baffert). He certainly doesn't want to get involved in an all out duel, but he doesn't want to get buried inside with the best horse or allow someone else to control the pace.

I would come out aggressively, but I'd back off if Corniche, Pinehurst, or someone else is hell bent on the lead. Then I'd try to get outside to stalk as soon as an opportunity presents itself. You don't want to give it to Baffert, but you don't want to kill yourself either...unless you think JC is Seattle Slew....then you can just go and not worry about it .

Looks best on paper and they are crazy not to go out so they don't risk getting shuffled. If it was a Baffert they send for sure.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Looks best on paper and they are crazy not to go out so they don't risk getting shuffled. If it was a Baffert they send for sure.

IMO Baffert is going to send Corniche and Pinehurst for position. He'll probably try to get the lead with the one he thinks is best. I also wouldn't put it past him to try to run interference with his other two by trying to pin JC inside so he has the jump. But JC can't go insane for the lead. It's not like there are no quality closers. What's the point behind winning the battle and losing the war?

To me, ideally you want JC to be outside the leader in moderately fast fractions, put him away like he did with Gunite, and then hold the closers safe.

Normally, I might try to beat a horse like Command Performance for 2nd. He benefited from JC putting away Gunite and the other chasers in the Champagne. But he may get a similar or even better trip tomorrow especially at 2 turns and with an extra 1/16th.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO Baffert is going to send Corniche and Pinehurst for position. He'll probably try to get the lead with the one he thinks is best. I also wouldn't put it past him to try to run interference with his other two by trying to pin JC inside so he has the jump. But JC can't go insane for the lead. It's not like there are no quality closers. What's the point behind winning the battle and losing the war?

To me, ideally you want to be outside the leader in moderately fast fractions, put him away like he did with Gunite, and then hold the closers safe.

Most times if a horse isn't in a battle it should be in, it loses anyway.