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02-08-2012, 05:21 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,815
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Sorry 34 Derby Winners
Ironically, the Mahmoud Sire line is all but dead same with Blue Larkspur
War Admiral hangs on with Tiznow but through the daughters we get all three major sire lines of Northern Dancer Mr Prospector and Seattle Slew.
I guess this would be a conclusion of sorts before going forward to start breaking down pedigrees for this year. Have a new respect for mama's yet?
Last edited by turninforhome10; 02-08-2012 at 05:30 AM.
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02-08-2012, 01:52 PM
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#17
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Princequillo
Notables from 8423 direct female lines
Sham Dare and Go Ack Ack Danzig Connection Kingmambo
Quack Hill Prince Moscow Ballet Gilded Time Honour and Glory
Cheiftain Burning Roma Tom Rolfe Sky Classic Miswaki
Tale of the Cat Smart Strike Run the Gauntlet
Robellino Mill Reef Bold Lad High Yield Bien Bien Hero's Tribute
And the big red machine
Secretariat the only Derby winner
Notice how many of the above have already been mentioned with the big 3.
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02-08-2012, 08:30 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,815
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Saturday
$150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (gr. IT, Race 8, 3:49 p.m.), 3YO, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Tarpy's Goal (FL), J Castellano, 116, D L Romans
2. Wildcat Creek (FL), A Serpa, 116, E Plesa Jr.
3. Thunder Moccasin (KY), J R Velazquez, 116, T A Pletcher
4. Quick Wit (KY), R A Dominguez, 116, D L Romans
5. Il Villano (KY), E Trujillo, 118, S L Crowell
6. Ever So Lucky (KY), J R Leparoux, 116, J E Sheppard
Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz1lpQr7Rq9
Only two horses have been able to complete the Hutcheson Derby double
Spectacular Bid and Swale.
Breaking down the field
Tarpy's Goal(High Cotton- Terre des Hommes (IRE) by Exbourne)
Young stallion High Cotton is represented here. From first crop 6.04 AWD reflects the Juvenile distances with not very many stretching out so far.
High Cotton has potential to be strong sprinting influence getting Currency Swap winning the 7 fur Hopeful. Sire's Sire Dixie Union won the Haskell and Produced PA Derby winner Gone Astray as well as Derby hopeful Union Rags
Caught in the middle of something will finish post later tonight.
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02-10-2012, 05:55 AM
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#19
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Hutcheson Done
Finally got a chance to crunch the pedigrees and watch replays. When reading the review, the info used was gathered using The Blood Horse and thoroughbred pedigree query and it is not as accurate as a Catalog style but for the purposes of handicapping for the thread, I am keeping cost's down.. I prefer the Comprehensive Sales Analysis by Brisnet but 20$ is a bit to steep. You used to be able to get them free at the sales and give the best picture of the famliy's race record and general worth.
$150,000*Hutcheson Stakes*(gr. IT, Race 8, 3:49 p.m.), 3YO, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Tarpy's Goal (FL), J Castellano, 116, D L Romans*
By Sharp Humor who now resides in Korea. Not a fan of inbred female line stallions for male offspring but that’s personal. Sire took similar trip winning the Swale 7fur and stretched to run2nd in the FLA derby. Fractured a knee in the Derby. Romans trained Sharp Humor. Pedigree is quite stout sporting Grassy router Exbourne and German Royalty Orsinin Derby winner Iron Leige is in quality female line that in imported and sports quality stallion selection. My concern is the line going back double to Newminster and Hermit both bleeders. I know it was a long time back but I have my crazy ways. Don’t know what happened at Saratoga. Shins or breathing or maybe the surface but did not like the rail.. Really ran against little at CD and was nursed back with a nice 5fur work on the turf and then got his N1x going all out to win by 2. Was not much left in the tank but galloped ok. Jlep rides for Sheppard. If you have confidence in Javier the 5-1 or better.
2. Wildcat Creek (FL), A Serpa, 116, E Plesa Jr.*
Wildcat Heir is what I call precocious .Bloodlines for good 2yo speedsters but when stretched out class prove poor wagers. Shackleford stayed a little farther than most from the line. Female family produced nice horse in Harlan Gr1 Sprinter.
Not much of a mover as he paddles much like a sprinter and action looked faltering when all out for second in the Pasco . Look for N2x Don’t see much reason for improvement.
3. Thunder Moccasin (KY), J R Velazquez, 116, T A Pletcher*
By Ap Warrior who went on tear in Calif as 3yo. Already showing promise a sire although nobody is stretching out yet. Tail female to La Troienne. Quality tail line including Forli and Devils Bag.. Won debut impressively and flattered by Ender Kneviel and Panthro both cruising to easy maiden scores. Came back to winners circle still pulling and looked very full of himself. Has the right to move forward just want to one more gear before future book this one. Does this one have to win today or prep for Fla Derby? Pletcher has something special and this one is mapped out. 95k bargain.
4. Quick Wit (KY), R A Dominguez, 116, D L Romans*
Romans sends out another son of Sharp Humor . Nothing special in pedigree. 32k purchase must have been from individual look. Made a big middle move in last and looked to hang a bit when passing tiring foes and moved away in the stretch with no real threat from a suspect bunch. Second maiden winner that Julien L gives up. Romans has Derby fever and wants to get there with a Sharp Humor. Might regress is pace stays hot to lane.
5. Il Villano (KY), E Trujillo, 118, S L Crowell*
By Pollard’s Vision who won the Illinois Derby and counts Blind Luck to his classic winner resume. No female names to speak of and scratching my head about the 600k sales tag.. Tried Alpha in last and ran with that one till the 1/16th pole and held on for second. Pace record shows only one tactic to employ. Go to the front and improve your position. Probably wants to sprint and just how Philly speed translates here is the question. New pilot looks to get caught outside horses as others inside want same thing.
6. Ever So Lucky (KY), J R Leparoux, 116, J E Sheppard*
One of my favorite combos of Jockey and trainer. 600k purchase for the respected Augustin stable this one looks the part of one being mapped for the Derby. Liked the hiatus at Camden in Aiken , good for a young horse. By the venerable Indian Charlie who seeks to get the classic winner with this one. Female line is the best of Farish with a triple of Something royal . Double of Gay Missle through siblings Lassie Dear and Gay Macene. See AP Indy . This is pretty special pedigree that has a strong likelihood of carrying large heart not to mention breeding potential. Has grade earnings and ran a respectable 2nd to the well regarded Gemologist in the Gr II Jockey Cup. Works are showing improving sort and Sheppard looks to Churchill. A win today would be within the scope but don’t see the onion getting peeled to fast here. Should be used as threat for Fla Derby with good effort here. Could be the nicest pedigree so far this year.
Pace Synopsis
Would see II Villano trying for the lead with Thundering Moccasin keeping that one wide . Ever So Lucky gets a good trip in the second flight and battles with Thundering Moccasin to get beat a length with a tiring Ill Villano hanging on for third with tired Wild cat Creek in 4th
Read more:* http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz1lxlVWL2y
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02-11-2012, 04:17 AM
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#21
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Registered User
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Posts: 2,815
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A few reports
Since my goal of this thread is education, here are some of the reports for today's Hutcheson
Dosages for Ever so Lucky and Thunder Moccasin using OB scale with Quality Index
7 gen pedigree for Both
Key names for Thunder Moccasin
If anybody wants a horse report for TC contenders just yell and I will post.
Feel free to ask any questions.
Last edited by turninforhome10; 02-11-2012 at 04:25 AM.
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02-11-2012, 04:38 AM
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#22
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Here is Union Rags pedigree info
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02-11-2012, 05:02 PM
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#23
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Thundering Moccasin
Workmanlike effort on a very poor track. No reason to take any chances this early. Pletcher has a decision to make with this efforts effort to move forward towards to longer distances.
Pedigree note.
Take a look at his dosage and notice how nicely AP Indy fits over Storm Cat.
My theory regarding the x-trail with Thunder Moccassin is that AP Indy sons will transmit through Weekend Surprise and will get high scores when bred on Storm Cat lines.The heart scores of Secretariat are of the finest quality and seem to be dominant. It is to bad he will be one of those sires that will have no male line left but I predict his inbreeding through females will rival those of the big 3.
That track is so greasy and the turf is poor today. I would not put to much stock as seeing any key races so far today. Too early in the season.
Thanks for reading.
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02-11-2012, 06:01 PM
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#24
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Side note on Thunder Moccasin just noticed that AP Warrioir is from the female family of Storm Bird which is the sire of Storm Cat. Inbreeding to South Ocean is some of WIndfields finest bloodlines. See EP Taylor.
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02-12-2012, 01:32 PM
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#25
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A big day for Toussaud
Juddmont's stellar producer Toussaud was represented by 2 fillies who look to be nicely progressing 3yos.
Nebraska for Mr Mott at AQ ran a good third against Msw going 170. I don't think this wants to go long on the dirt. Take a look below. What about that Natalma inbreeding. Juddmont has the best.
Modulate on the other hand look very game in running down foes in her first start at GP going 7 fur with J LU aboard, Modulate should make some noise on the filly classic trail. Notice the doubles of Buckpasser in the dam and that Mizzen Mast comes from Tom Fool mare line. This filly has big big future and Juddmont did a superb job with this one. See below
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02-16-2012, 07:44 PM
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#26
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Sorry about being laxed in my post.Will be working on the Soutwest and El Camino Since nobody else is posting in the thread and those of you who are reading are interested in looking at new things, this is vey powerful
http://www.sartinmethodology.com/pub...inningPMTR.pdf
Ask yourself why do you handicap after readin this.
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02-21-2012, 12:31 PM
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#27
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Race Player
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Home of the brave.
Posts: 1,044
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The Godfather
turninforhome,
I would appreciate it if you can take the time to provide your pedigree work up on El Padrino (The Godfather).
I've been takin' a hard look at him and he looks kinda interesting in a lot of different ways . . . in particular his ability to adapt to different surfaces. He has run at four different tracks and come the Risen Star this weekend, that will be five races on five different surfaces - can't forget he has trained at the Belmont training track and I believe it is Palm Meadows. No doubt it is gonna be a good one this weekend and the Pletcher horse sure looks tough. I'm lookin' forward to listening to what the trainers of Mr. Bowling and Z Dager will have to say should Mr. Pletcher amble on into the Fair Ground and make of with the Risen Star. Mind you I'm still a big fan of Z Dager, but I just can't see how they beat The Godfather.
I think It would be nice to take a look at your pedigree analysis for the top contenders in this race. Lookin' forward to reading your work.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/el+padrino9
http://www.pedigreequery.com/z+dager
http://www.pedigreequery.com/mr+bowling2
Nothin' like the Derby Trail !
__________________
Nothing endures but change.
- Heraclitus 535-475 BC
Last edited by Blenheim; 02-21-2012 at 12:37 PM.
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02-21-2012, 05:31 PM
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#28
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Will break down top contenders for the big races as individuals (it is much easier to put in attachments. Since El Padrino is the buzz horse lets look at him
Ell Padrino - By Pulpit out of Enchanted Rock by Giant's Causeway
Bred by the good breeder Emory Hamilton (" Other top horses raced include Too Chic, Queena's dam; La Reina and Serra Lake ... Other notable horses bred include Cappuchino, Pin Stripe and Coal Play ... Purchased her first horse – Too Chic – as a yearling at a King Ranch dispersal in 1980 following the death of her grandfather in 1974 ... She paid $100,000 for the filly ... Both Too Chic and Queena won the G1 Maskette ... Another of Too Chic's daughters, G1 winner Chic Shirine, produced G2 winners Waldoboro and Tara Roma"). Wondering why Hamilton sold this one? Pletcher got a deal? Well the dam Enchanted Rock was unplaced in 1 start and looks to be the weaker of her sisters. El Padrino is first foal to make the races and I imagine dams stock has went up immensely.
Pulpit looks to be forming his own branch of the AP Indy line. What I have noticed about the Pulpits is that they perform well early on in the TC trail but yet to find one with the moxie to wear the roses. IMHO prone to leg problems as their sheer speed may be more than their body can handle. Pulpit himself locked like an early Derby winner before getting missing the big bance. Maybe the line is jinxed but I feel is has to do with being early matures and being asked to much to soon.
El Padrino won his last race impressively to the highly regarded Take Charge Indy. After that horse he beat no one. His Beyer was one of the best of the year though for this crop.
Pro's- Is peaking at the right time to make this class move. Has right connections and Castellano ships for this. While I think this horse will move forward today, he is going to be pushed to make the graded earnings list. A win today and huge effort is necessary to move towards Louisville. How he will handle the pressure of a new track, better horses and that long stretch at the FG are really the gamble here. The horse is talented and looks to have a bright future
Cons- Call me crazy but I don't like the fact that Emory sold this one. Mare is light on race record and while family is one of the better at producing fillies that run The best male runner is Soaring Empire and his record while good is a notch below his peers and his record for putting back to back races is bad.
Looking at his pedigree he is light on solid and professional influences. I am also not a big fan of inbreeding to Mr Prospector so close. If El Padrino turns out on the left front leg then he is a real Mr Prospector and while brilliant they just don't last.
Synopsis- I like his chances to run a big race, but will find out his true mettle when faced with the daunting stretch with a rider who is not really known for riding the FG.
Welcome any comments and the opinions are my own based on my own research and correct me if I am wrong please. See my reports below.
Will have more to come
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02-21-2012, 07:33 PM
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#29
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Z Dager is an interesting pedigree. Free of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer and Tom Fool is the highest % of inbreeding. This is and old schol pedigree stemming back to on old Fred Hooper line. Notice the female line goes back to Mahmoud. This line was Hoopers attempt to buid a classic horse using homebred stallions. While Mizzen Mast is more known for being a grass sire his pedigree is stamina laden and has allowed for AWD of 7.34as Mast Track and Midships are both proven stayers (grass).
IMHO Z Dager is moving along nicely and still doing things on his own. Should move forward here and I think the longer the better. So far this is Assmussen best shot at getting to CD in MAY, not taking anything away from the El Camino Real winner.
I like this pedigree.
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02-22-2012, 01:08 AM
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#30
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Really amazing for pedigree nerds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by turninforhome10
Z Dager is an interesting pedigree. Free of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer and Tom Fool is the highest % of inbreeding. This is and old schol pedigree stemming back to on old Fred Hooper line. Notice the female line goes back to Mahmoud. This line was Hoopers attempt to buid a classic horse using homebred stallions. While Mizzen Mast is more known for being a grass sire his pedigree is stamina laden and has allowed for AWD of 7.34as Mast Track and Midships are both proven stayers (grass).
IMHO Z Dager is moving along nicely and still doing things on his own. Should move forward here and I think the longer the better. So far this is Assmussen best shot at getting to CD in MAY, not taking anything away from the El Camino Real winner.
I like this pedigree.
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When analyzing Z Dager I decided to take a look at Mizzen Mast as he is showing a propensity for stayers. The result is a total throwback pedigree that would look good 50 years ago. Completely free of any Neararctic and Native Dancer and the inbreeding is back to Gainsborough, Pharos, and Phalaris all top stallions from the early 1900's. For those that use the the term outcross Mizzen Mast is almost a complete outcross on most modern Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector laden pedigrees. I will look into the crystal ball and say that Mizzen Mast has a bright future as a broodmare sire. He is a stunning animal and was a brilliant racehorse I am cheerin for Z Dager now just to see more Mizzen Mast's get bred.
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