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Old 03-01-2012, 03:27 PM   #16
pondman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
After the trouble Hansen sped off (too fast) .
They've been experimenting with headsets trying to get this horse to be easier on the gate, but he just wants to blast out of it. I don't think a change in blinkers is going to stop this horse from wanting to burn himself early.

Anyone have any opinion on going from Gp at 80 F to 60%-80% chance of rain and T-Storm? I don't have that kind of data, but have other horses done it. Seems like the weather benefits locals.
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Old 03-01-2012, 03:34 PM   #17
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Tough one.

Nice purse the 400K but only a GIII . . . Almost every conceivable way to go in this one - horses shippin in; stretching out; from grass to dirt; coming off a lay off; dropping down in distance; running equal distance; training on the surface; at a sister track on the training track . . . you name it. I think Ainslie would say there are too many unknowns in this one . . . would call it "unplayable" and I would agree.

Nevernonetheless and just for the smell of it, I'll give it a go.



Best of racin' luck.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Gotham!
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Old 03-01-2012, 10:58 PM   #18
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Will be passing on the 10th but like my chances of beating Caleb's Posse in the 9th. Boxing 145.
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Old 03-02-2012, 04:25 AM   #19
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With about one-third of the field I might be able to pick the winner. I think the race is wide open , all is predicated on Hansen getting run down after the charge from the outside position on a muddy track. My Adonis could get a nice trip but I'll toss him as well.

In no particular order:

King and Crusader
Tigerwalk
Maan
Raconteur

.
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Old 03-02-2012, 05:55 AM   #20
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I'll be keeping an eye on Stealcase.
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Old 03-02-2012, 11:31 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
What a fascinating renewal. I think you have to begin looking at the race, by looking at The Holy Bull from Gulfstream. My Adonis and Hansen both had some trouble early. After the trouble Hansen sped off (too fast) while My Adonis fell far off the pace (15-20 lengths), which is MUCH farther than he has ever been.
Hansen held okay after setting that pace and My Adonis ran on well to just miss second.

I prefer My Adonis in the rematch. He's drawn better than Hansen and Ramon might have to use Hansen a little to get him over. I think My Adonis falls into a nice spot a few lengths off the front and gets it done.
I would probably make the same play except that I don't trust the figure from the Holy Bull.

That figure looked about 10 points too fast to me right from the start. Then I heard that Thorograph had the race a few lengths slower. Now, the first horse out of the race didn't run back to its figure.

Knock 10 points off that race (give or take) and the Gothom looks a little more wide open and I might want to spread around a little if I try to beat Hansen. Maybe the figure is correct, but I'm not keying on anyone based on that assumption until there is some verification.
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Old 03-02-2012, 08:19 PM   #22
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The more I've looked I think either Hansen is going to run his race and win or My Adonis will turn the tables or Suns Out Guns Out will stun them all.

I just really don't think these are that good.

Suns Out Guns Out was wide every step last race. Paco took the whip out ridiculously early and I'm surprised how well he kept on in what I thought was a pretty good field...and going 1 1/8. Other than the turf horse none of these come out of a 1 1/8th race and of the few that have tried I think SOGO's effort was the best.

Obviously, not going that far here but I still think will be coming late at bomber odds.
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Old 03-02-2012, 10:01 PM   #23
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I have mixed feelings on Hansen. I thought he ran a huge race in the Juvenile, but I'm not entirely convinced about him. Some speed horses that have been running on synthetic "freak" first time dirt but don't hold that form. His first race back this year was good, but I think one key to figuring out where this horse is now is how fast that race actually was. I don't trust the Beyer.

IMO the key is going to be whether the other riders simply concede the lead to him. If they do, it could be over regardless of whether he's as good as the Juvenile made him look or not. If they run enough to force him wide first turn and he has to be used a little early, IMO he can be "had".
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Old 03-02-2012, 10:20 PM   #24
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^Yeah, I mean there are big question marks about Hansen in my eyes, but it's not as if this trip should really be something to worry about. The big factor here is clearly the post to me. If they let him clear, I will be very surprised if it's not lights out. But if they make him run early like they should, I think it really opens up what looks like a wide open race.

The more I watched the My Adonis replay I just can't decide. On the one hand, he's making a very nice run, but it was after doing no type of running early as Hansen stumbled and then ran off...and as much as he is blowing past him after the wire...it did happen after the wire. Not sure the price is going to be enough to warrant playing...

But then again I like the maiden so what do I know...
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Old 03-02-2012, 11:16 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pondman
They've been experimenting with headsets trying to get this horse to be easier on the gate, but he just wants to blast out of it. I don't think a change in blinkers is going to stop this horse from wanting to burn himself early.

Anyone have any opinion on going from Gp at 80 F to 60%-80% chance of rain and T-Storm? I don't have that kind of data, but have other horses done it. Seems like the weather benefits locals.
Changing bits for this race also. I believe Hansen has raced with the bit they are going with for the Gotham, but am not sure on that.
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Old 03-02-2012, 11:42 PM   #26
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Horses shipping to NY this time of year from hot Florida have historically done well.
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Old 03-03-2012, 12:13 AM   #27
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Horses shipping to NY this time of year from hot Florida have historically done well.
The water is a bit different up north. Or is it different down south?

In any case, I don't know how much more anti-Hansen I can get. It is only being further fueled by Dr. Hansen's blog posts
Ever since the BC win, I've thought putting this horse on the Derby trail will only end up in disappointments. I think he'll prove to be a turf/poly horse, IF he's not ruined by all these Derby dirt preps. Supposedly he's only 70% "cranked" (Hansen's words)...we'll see.

I sorta like Maan, I know he's only been sprinting but he's been finishing with good energy. He should like the off track too. First glance at his breeding he should like running long but his mother won sprinting dirt and turf only, so I'm not really sure. Will take a stab at the price...
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Old 03-03-2012, 01:06 AM   #28
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It'll be interesting to see if Hansen has the right stuff. If he is what they think he is they likely would have kept him in Florida. The fact they are shipping him out to race in softer company may indicate they have their doubts. I've seen that Breeders Cup ruin a few horses . . . Guess we'll see.
~
I thought the most important factor in handicapping this race is whether or not the shippers can adjust to the inner surface at AQ. I thought the shippers might have a marginal edge in class and a few show an edge in condition, but I thought any edge in class or condition would be nullified by the uncertainty of their ability to adjust to the new surface.

I took another pass over the past performances and I think the one to look out for may be the Dutrow horse. He shows a winning race over a good surface at a mile, comes back to win the Winkfield in a drop in distance and gets a break w/five solid works on the surface. Looks to me like Tricky Dick has him set to go out front and run off with this one, maybe earn his ticket to the Big Dance. The speed bias for the meet is 67%,for the week is 75%, the slop will only help.

I will revise my picks:

/


Best of racin' luck.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Gotham.
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Old 03-03-2012, 01:20 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by theguarantee
Call me crazy but I like the maiden...
You're CRAZY!! LOL
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Old 03-03-2012, 01:38 AM   #30
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Maan and Pretension are two longshots that i think can crash the party.

Although his two sprint running lines paint him as more of an off the pace type, he is actually an even runner by the figs and he should stretch out well. Like many, his figs are in that cluster below Hansen. Rajiv seems to come through for me a lot.

Pretension is always there and ran a nice enough numnber in his last to be given a shot. Track was very slow the day of his last race and he stalked a fast pace & edged clear, albeit vs state breds.

Will spread wider in the win hole trying trying to beat Hansen (his Derby hopes will take a big hit tomorrow, imo) but the above two will definitely be on my exotics tickets.
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