 |
|
09-17-2010, 10:04 AM
|
#46
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
|
"Lots of books tell how."
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by jamey1977
No one has ever said how they do what they do and provide examples and data. No one says nothing............... Any good books that talk about overlays and shows us how, with examples and samples ? It seems that no one wants to actually show us how they do it. .
|
Do you read much jamey1977??
Actually I've found several that tell you "how."
I didn't have to go far for an example.
I recently bought Dr. P's book advertised here on this site and it's all about "Overlays" although he calls them "Longshots." It's a good read.
From the bottom of a PA page I pulled up:
New Book Logical Longshots
and Quickgap ability figures are
now available at Dr. Jim Park's
gapfire.com Come for a visit at
http://www.gapfire.com
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 10:07 AM
|
#47
|
|
Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,399
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by jamey1977
Going against the crowd. What do you mean? Betting overlays that go from 3 to 1 official morning line to 7 to 1 off ?
|
No that's not it. Horses with ml of 20-1 that have my true odds of 2-1 that go off at 30-1. Now THAT is an overlay.
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 10:14 AM
|
#48
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 1,488
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by xfile
No that's not it. Horses with ml of 20-1 that have my true odds of 2-1 that go off at 30-1. Now THAT is an overlay.
|
Kind of like the 7 in the 9th @ Belmont yesterday with morning line @ 8-1, FCR gave it 3-1 fair bet odds (listed on top & best longshot of the race too no less) and it goes off @ 20-1 paying $42.80 for the win???  Oh so sweet!
__________________
"A winning horse either sets or overcomes the pace of the race it runs against" - Ray Taulbot
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 10:18 AM
|
#49
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Gods County, United Kingdom
Posts: 3,533
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by xfile
No that's not it. Horses with ml of 20-1 that have my true odds of 2-1 that go off at 30-1. Now THAT is an overlay.
|
Might be misunderstanding you here, but are you saying, a horse that is say evens in a live market and 1-2 on your odds line is not an overplay?? because if you are, you are totally off your rocker
Last edited by Charlie D; 09-17-2010 at 10:20 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 10:25 AM
|
#50
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Gods County, United Kingdom
Posts: 3,533
|
Also, you should pay very little attention to a ML as it is of little imprtance really.
The important odds lines are the LIVE markets and your OWN, as it these two that tell you the overlays and underslays.
Last edited by Charlie D; 09-17-2010 at 10:26 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 10:25 AM
|
#51
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Charlie D
Might be misunderstanding you here, but are you saying, a horse that is say evens in a live market and 1-2 on your odds line is not an overplay?? because if you are, you are totally off your rocker
|
It is an overlay Charlie...but many players, myself included, have a strong aversion to betting even money shots to win.
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 10:32 AM
|
#52
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Gods County, United Kingdom
Posts: 3,533
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by thaskalos
It is an overlay Charlie...but many players, myself included, have a strong aversion to betting even money shots to win.
|
Why??
The aim of this game is to BACK the overlays not PASS them over.
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 10:38 AM
|
#53
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Charlie D
Why??
The aim of this game is to BACK the overlays not PASS them over.
|
The beauty of the full-card simulcasting game is that you can find whatever you want...without having to wait too long.
To answer your question...I find that I get a terrible headache whenever I am about to place a win bet on an even money shot. Surprisingly...the headache seems to subside whenever I use that even money shot in the exotics...
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 10:47 AM
|
#54
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Gods County, United Kingdom
Posts: 3,533
|
So if i'm understanding correctly. Your oddline tells you a horse is an overlay, but because that horse is priced evens you PASS.
Bit of a mad stance to take thaskalos imho as you are PASSING on a GOOD INVESTMENT opportunity according to YOUR analysis.
Each to their own though.
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 11:00 AM
|
#55
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Gods County, United Kingdom
Posts: 3,533
|
ok thaskalos
evens in live maket, 1-2 on your line
6-1 in live market, 2-1 on your line
Both represent GOOD INVESTMENTS according to your line, the only difference is the ROI on the 6-1 will be greater should they win.
Why would you place a bet on one GOOD INVESTMENT and pass on the other one???
Signed
Gods County, United Kingdom.
Last edited by Charlie D; 09-17-2010 at 11:03 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 11:21 AM
|
#56
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Charlie D
ok thaskalos
evens in live maket, 1-2 on your line
6-1 in live market, 2-1 on your line
Both represent GOOD INVESTMENTS according to your line, the only difference is the ROI on the 6-1 will be greater should they win.
Why would you place a bet on one GOOD INVESTMENT and pass on the other one???
Signed
Gods County, United Kingdom. |
Ok Charlie...since you insist, I will give you a more detailed answer.
I am not a slave to my betting line when it comes to the extreme odds ranges...either too high, or too low.
For instance...when a horse is 25-1 on my line, but it goes off at 50-1... it might be an overlay, but I refuse to bet it...because my experience tells me not to trust my betting line in this situation.
The same thing applies to your even money shot...only in reverse. Yes, the even money shot might "theoretically" be an overlay...but I feel that I am entitled to fair compensation for my risk...and I don't think that even money is enough...regardless of what my betting line says.
Not to mention that, in today's game, the even money shot is likely to be 3-5...by the time the race is over...
Do you think that it is unreasonable to operate with odds limits...even while using a betting line?
Why should I feel obligated to bet an even money shot, when I have so many races to choose from?
Last edited by thaskalos; 09-17-2010 at 11:31 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 11:30 AM
|
#57
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Gods County, United Kingdom
Posts: 3,533
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Ok Charlie...since you insist, I will give you a more detailed answer.
I am not a slave to my betting line when it comes to the extreme odds ranges...either too high, or too low.
For instance...when a horse is 25-1 on my line, but it goes off at 50-1... it might be an overlay, but I refuse to bet it...because my experience tells me not to trust my betting line in this situation.
The same thing applies to your even money shot...only in reverse. Yes, the even money shot might "theoretically" be an overlay...but I feel that I am entitled to fair compensation for my risk...and I don't think that even money is enough...regardless of what my betting line says.
Not to mention that, in today's game, the even money shot is likely to be 3-5...by the time the race is over...
Do you think that it is unreasonable to operate with odds limits...even while using a betting line?
Why should I feel obligated to bet an even money shot, when I have so many races to chose from? |
Thaskie
Your 25-1 is telling you the probability is around 4% instead of 2%, which means you have horses ahead of it with a higher probability of winning.
1-2 is around 66% probablity instead of 50%, which probably means no horses ahead of it with a higher probability of winning.
BIG, BIG difference isn't there???
Odds limits are daft as i've tried to demonstrate above. The risk is exactly the same.
Last edited by Charlie D; 09-17-2010 at 11:33 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 11:36 AM
|
#58
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Charlie D
Thaskie
Your 25-1 is telling you the probability is around 4% instead of 2%, which means you have horses ahead of it with a higher probability of winning.
1-2 is around 66% probablity instead of 50%, which probably means no horses ahead of it with a higher probability of winning.
BIG, BIG difference isn't there???
Odds limits are daft as i've tried to demonstrate above.
|
Charlie...
The whole point of a betting line is to identify overlays REGARDLESS of whether or not there are other horses in the race with higher probabilities of winning.
I am not interested in the horse with the highest probability of winning...I am interested in the best BET in the race.
There is a HUGE difference...
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 11:43 AM
|
#59
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Gods County, United Kingdom
Posts: 3,533
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Charlie...
The whole point of a betting line is to identify overlays REGARDLESS of whether or not there are other horses in the race with higher probabilities of winning.
I am not interested in the horse with the highest probability of winning...I am interested in the best BET in the race.
There is a HUGE difference...
|
The best bet in race is not a 50-1 poke that you have 25-1 Thaskie. These are the type of scenarios you should be PASSING and NOT an evens that you have 1-2.
Last edited by Charlie D; 09-17-2010 at 11:49 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
09-17-2010, 11:53 AM
|
#60
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Charlie D
The best bet in race is not a 50-1 poke that you have 25-1 Thaskie. These are the type of scenarios you should be PASSING and NOT an evens that you have 1-2.
|
I DID say that I pass the 25-1 "poke" Charlie-boy...maybe you should re-read my post.
If you are confortable betting even money shots to win...go ahead...but I won't be joining you anytime soon...
To each his own, I guess...
There was a guy I met about 15 years ago, who fancied himself to be a "pro"...
He would run over little old ladies on his way to the betting window, in his haste to bet 3-5 shots to show...thinking that he had uncovered great overlays.
Like I said before...I have no interest in betting on the most likely winners...that's a trap, in my book.
I want to make the best BETS possible...and even money shots don't qualify, IMO...except in very rare cases.
Last edited by thaskalos; 09-17-2010 at 11:58 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
