NFL week 1 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Valuist · 08-25-2005, 12:28 PM

I like to bet week 1 early; its not difficult to tell which way the public will bet and its always important to get the best number.

DETROIT -1.5 over Green Bay. When this came out on Pinny over a month ago, GB was actually favored by 1.5. The line is now Det -3. GB is getting old and the D is very bad. Detroit looks to be a team that could be on the rise.

BALTIMORE +3 over Indy. At home on the carpet, Indy is as good as anybody. But take them off the carpet and put them against a physical team like NE, Balt, Pitt or Jax and they struggle. Their D is undersized and built for the turf, not grass. Look for Jamal Lewis to run wild. Getting points with the home team and superior defense here. Bets (and championships) are won with defense, not offense.

Chic/Washington UNDER 34.5 The number is still 34.5 but I expect will be 33.5 or 33 by gametime. 34 is a key number; We've got 2 solid defenses and 2 weak offenses who will concentrate on running the ball which will keep the clock ticking.

Cincy -2.5 over Cleveland. This one is now Cin -3 with a steep moneyline. Cincy may contend for a playoff spot and Cleveland is really lacking in talent. Should be a long year for the Browns.

kenwoodallpromos · 08-25-2005, 01:49 PM

Take the other team! 1 dead, the QB promoted heavily locally worth 50 million is in a MD claimer. Week 1 will tell if Dick's son can coach.

Fwizard · 08-26-2005, 11:58 AM

Damn--those picks all look pretty solid--I might have I few of those myself--Good Luck!!!

Valuist · 08-26-2005, 12:15 PM

Thx. We'll see. Every year there's a team or two that comes out of the woodwork to become good and there's usually several supposedly good teams who lay eggs. Last year, Seattle was the "trendy" early pick to become good. Didn't work out w/them.

kingfin66 · 08-27-2005, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

Thx. We'll see. Every year there's a team or two that comes out of the woodwork to become good and there's usually several supposedly good teams who lay eggs. Last year, Seattle was the "trendy" early pick to become good. Didn't work out w/them.

That's because the defense was horrid. This year, Seattle's defense should be decent. Not great, but decent. The offense will also be good as long as the receivers can hang onto a few balls. Seattle won't be the trendy pick this season, Arizona looks to have the lock on that, but they could sneak up on people. Time will tell.

Valuist · 08-27-2005, 11:46 PM

Kingfin-

Now we know why Koren Robinson had trouble catching the ball; he was hung over. So who will be the 2nd WR? Engram or Jurivicious?

dav4463 · 08-28-2005, 12:25 AM

I think the surprise teams in the NFL this year will be the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings. Remember this post when they both go deep in the playoffs !

kingfin66 · 08-28-2005, 01:42 AM

It should be Engram. There's not even a guarantee that Joe J. will make the team. Seattle has too many WRs and there will be a numbers game that will result in a veteran being cut.

Valuist · 08-29-2005, 01:04 PM

I'm not sure if we can count Minnesota as a surprise because quite a few prognosticators think they can get to the NFC Championship game and possibly the Super Bowl in a weak NFC.

yak merchant · 09-01-2005, 12:01 AM

Valuist:

Do like the Ravens week 1.
Not many secondaries match up well with Indy, but the Ravens do. And well Indy's defense is Indy's defense.

Kingfin:

Last year Seattle's defense suffered more injuries than a MASH unit. At one point last year their linebackers probably couldn't have started for U of Miami. I agree they should be better, but I actually think they downgraded on both corners, so they'll have their struggles defensively but I guess we'll see

Valuist · 09-01-2005, 11:12 AM

It will be interesting to see how the Saints will be affected. Will they use this as a motivational tool and play harder? Or will they be distracted? I can see both happening; they start the season with a chip on their shoulders and highly motivated. But if things start to go bad later in the year, the distractions could catch up with them. I see Pinnacle took the Saints season win total off the board.

Valuist · 09-01-2005, 12:33 PM

Re: the Seahawks WRs, it looks like they just added Peter Warrick, who the Bengals released earlier in the week.

Bobby · 09-01-2005, 12:50 PM

Valuist what do you like in College? Do you see any surprise teams?

Valuist · 09-01-2005, 01:51 PM

I don't follow college too much. I follow the Big Ten a bit and a little MAC, being an alum. From what I've heard, USC is a solid favorite to repeat.

Valuist · 09-08-2005, 10:09 AM

Bobby-

On second thought, this week I may take Ohio State -1 vs Texas. Texas is a bully team. Against an overmatched opponent, they will pile drive them into the ground. When they get punched in the face by a tough opponent, they go running home crying. I see that happening Saturday night.

Adding one more NFL total: Tampa/Minnesota UNDER 43. Minnesota added a lot of defensive strength to their team and lost the big deep threat in Moss. Last year, when Moss was out, they played much more conservatively. As for Tampa, they have severe problems on the left side of their offensive line and will have new starters in both the blind side tackle and guard positions. I look for Gruden to try to protect Griese (as well as both new starters) by trying to establish the run.