The 20 Cent Jackpot Six coming to Santa Anita. Wonderful

[Poindexter]

As I said in my prior post, there is a good measuring stick to whether the bet is bad or good. The p3 parlay. If you are getting around that much back on a 20 cent jackpot pick six you are doing okay. There are rare instances when they will pay 2 or 3 times this amount, there are other times it will pay 60% of this amount. The fact that you can play 10 times the combinations for the same amount of money is a huge draw and benefit for the small player. Bottom line it is fun. Small players cannot beat this game, but they can scrap together $30 to $50 to put together a rainbow six play, have a legit shot at $2500 and who knows they might even think they have a shot at the jackpot(which they wont unless they are connecting longshots in just about every leg-in which case they will likely be donating).


The 2 P-6 markets do have overlap but I agree they do draw primarily from different markets. The problem is that racetracks don't like tying up betting capital and reducing churn. They kind of have to go with one or the other.

Well everything they do is counter to this. They offer pick 4's, pick 5's galore, they offer the low takeout on pick 5's and not on straight betting. Every host on every racing channel cannot stop talking about pick 4's and pick 5's and jackpot pick 6's. Somebody isn't getting this memo.


I agree but ironically it is the big player who usually walks away with the Jackpot.


Have no idea what your point is or whether you are talking about the 20 jackpot bet or the $2.00 jackpot bet.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

As I said in my prior post, there is a good measuring stick to whether the bet is bad or good. The p3 parlay. If you are getting around that much back on a 20 cent jackpot pick six you are doing okay. There are rare instances when they will pay 2 or 3 times this amount, there are other times it will pay 60% of this amount. The fact that you can play 10 times the combinations for the same amount of money is a huge draw and benefit for the small player. Bottom line it is fun. Small players cannot beat this game, but they can scrap together $30 to $50 to put together a rainbow six play, have a legit shot at $2500 and who knows they might even think they have a shot at the jackpot(which they wont unless they are connecting longshots in just about every leg-in which case they will likely be donating).

Yes, it's "fun" like the lottery is fun---huge takeout, a tiny chance of winning something big. Still, that's no reason to defend it to the average fan. And your arguments about the Pick 3 parlay are not statistically accurate.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Yes, it's "fun" like the lottery is fun---huge takeout, a tiny chance of winning something big. Still, that's no reason to defend it to the average fan. And your arguments about the Pick 3 parlay are not statistically accurate.

Why would you consider the pick 3 parlay a poor gauge. A pick six basically is a pick 3 parlay, only it is takeout rather than 2 so it should pay better. Most days I look it is a fairly accurate representation of what the pick 6 will pay. Obviously in the jackpot pick six when the carryovers are small they will pay much worse.

I am not defending the jackpot pick 6. In my perfect world they just have a 20 cent pick six with a 12% takeout, a 20 cent super high 5 with a 12% takeout and 20 cent pick 4's and pick 5's with a 12 % takeout. That way small players could compete in these pools a lot better and stay in the game a lot longer. The jackpot aspect of the bet does nothing for me. The problem is that racetracks have experimented and since they are unwilling to budge on takeout and rebates, all they have is jackpot bets. It seems as if they create excitement in the industry. The jackpot pools at Gulfstream are huge when the jackpot pools get over 2 million dolllars.

The recreational bettor has no chance today. Throwing a half a million dollar carryover to entice a small player with very limited funds is just encouraging him to piss away $144 in a $2 pick six, instead of making $5 and $10 win bets. If you bet pick sixes and are highly capitalized, I get it, this sucks for you. The jackpot pick 6 in so cal is probably the best bet out there for the highly capitalized player(especially when there is both a carryover and a jackpot) The jackpot pick 6 is more of an entertainment bet for the recreational bettor that will lose his money anyhow. It is just a matter of how much and how fast. But imo the longevity of this player will typically be much longer with the rip off jackpot 20 cent pool, then it will with a $2 pick six no matter how much better the payoffs are in the $2 version. Like I said earlier do both.

[dilanesp]

The recreational player never has a chance except through luck.

But if racetracks can make more money structuring a bet that is attractive to them, I don't see the argument against it. Racetracks need more handle.

[SandyW]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

If true--it's another track joining the carny sucker bet hall of shame.

It becomes not a sucker bet as soon as you hit one of these rainbow 6's even if you are not the only winning ticket holder.
I'm looking forward to playing this bet daily.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

I agree but ironically it is the big player who usually walks away with the Jackpot.


Have no idea what your point is or whether you are talking about the 20 jackpot bet or the $2.00 jackpot bet.

The entire premise of the Jackpot bets with single winners is incredibly skewed to Jackpots being won by the big players. It's one thing to compete with a big player to pick 6 winners but it is much harder to compete with big players to be a single winner. That's why the bet designed supposedly for the small player is just a gift for the large players.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by AndyC

The entire premise of the Jackpot bets with single winners is incredibly skewed to Jackpots being won by the big players. It's one thing to compete with a big player to pick 6 winners but it is much harder to compete with big players to be a single winner. That's why the bet designed supposedly for the small player is just a gift for the large players.

No arguments from me. However the advantage is a lot more pronounced on the current $2 jackpot pick 6 then it is on a Rainbow pick 6 that I imagine most syndicates will only play on a mandatory payout. So just by the fact most betting syndicates are not that involved probably means that some small players are likely pulling down some of the 20 cent rainbow sixes on the rare occasion that they a single ticket hits.

[jay68802]

The entire premise of the wager is that the track gets to keep charging take out on the whole pool including the carry over.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by jay68802

The entire premise of the wager is that the track gets to keep charging take out on the whole pool including the carry over.

How can they charge take out on the carryover? They charge takeout on the money bet that day. The carryover is free money that is given to anyone who is the only ticket with 6 winners, should that happen. The bet is a "ripoff" or "sucker bet" because a certain percentage of the pool is added to the next days carryover instead of being paid out(unless someone is the lone ticket with 6).

[turfnsport]

The jackpot bet is a high takeout churn killer. If you get the urge to play a jackpot bet there are better options, perhaps buying scratch off tickets or lighting your money on fire.

[JohnGalt1]

How often does the jackpot six pay 5 of 6?

Can you say never.

The traditional $1.00 or $2.00 pick six always pays 5.

Years ago Bay Meadows paid down to 4 of 6 if no one hit six. If it paid $9.00 for four and you had 5 horses in the two races you missed you collected $45.00. That's called churn.

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by SandyW

It becomes not a sucker bet as soon as you hit one of these rainbow 6's even if you are not the only winning ticket holder.
I'm looking forward to playing this bet daily.

I did hit one, other than the Arlington $60 I mentioned.

The year Nyquist won the Florida Derby, I won $588. A single paid $11.00 and the deeper covered races had lower priced horses.

The only reason I even played it was I had 3 locks, My single, the all button in one race and Mohayman and Nyquist in the last. So looked at it as a pick 3.



What would it have paid if it was a traditional pick 6 with a traditional cost?

Who knows?

I was able to hit the all button because of the cost and wouldn't have played if it was $2.00.

The $588 did not change my life or add substantially to my bankroll, which is what a pick 5 or 6 should do.


Gulfstream does it right because they get the handle. I'm just disappointed there is one less traditional pick 6 to play.