ValueCapper AVC Portfolio Blind Bet Results

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by Kbatch57

Hi Matt,
Since you are tracking the Distance, Surface and Race Description in the bet log have you filtered by each of these to see what type of races you are more successful at?

Wondering if the winners have anything in common or are they scattered all over the place?

It would be interesting as well, if you were tracking the positional and velocity race types to see if there is any correlation between these and the winning horses when using the AVC Portfolio.

That could be interesting, but as of yet I have not looked into it. Probably would need to create my own database rather than using the one that came with valuecapper but that is not too difficult to do.

M

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Hey Mike, the portfolio Anti Value Countfown itself means that at LEAST 2 of the horses rated above the actual AVC horse have anti value.....this can be layoff, negative class drop, hard last race, hard race off layoff, etc. Usually but not always, the favorite is one of those horse that Valuecapper rates high but has anti value. Anti value at low odds is a horrible bet, anti value at acceptable odds is another thing.

So, if your plays are hitting at 10%

then what is the 2 anti-value hit rate?

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

So, if your plays are hitting at 10%

then what is the 2 anti-value hit rate?

Not sure I understand the question, they all have at least two anti value horses above them, less than two and its not in that portfolio. Sometimes they have 5 antivalue horses above them or 4 or 3 and always at least 2.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Not sure I understand the question, they all have at least two anti value horses above them, less than two and its not in that portfolio. Sometimes they have 5 antivalue horses above them or 4 or 3 and always at least 2.

if you miss your bet did you notice who the winner was?

the thing i'm trying to figure out is , are the anti-value horse that bad or do they still win at a good rate...

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

if you miss your bet did you notice who the winner was?

the thing i'm trying to figure out is , are the anti-value horse that bad or do they still win at a good rate...

Oh now I see, yes AV horses win all the time, at a short price though they are not worth an investment, at a long price.....maybe, maybe not. Valuecapper is not like HTR where it totally database oriented. In fact to my knowledge Vcp ratings cannot even be exported so it would be a helluva lot of work answering some of the questions here.

M

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

if you miss your bet did you notice who the winner was?

the thing i'm trying to figure out is , are the anti-value horse that bad or do they still win at a good rate...

I would also add that AVC horses win all the time but are too bet down for me to invest, its all about waiting for your price, even when you wanted 15-1 and your horse isn't bet because it went off at 14-1 and won for fun. I have learned to really not even watch any more, I just look at my balance a few times a day, much less frustration that way lol.

M

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

I would also add that AVC horses win all the time but are too bet down for me to invest, its all about waiting for your price, even when you wanted 15-1 and your horse isn't bet because it went off at 14-1 and won for fun. I have learned to really not even watch any more, I just look at my balance a few times a day, much less frustration that way lol.

M

thank you

if you dont mind Matt....please include the horses/races that you bet because i would like to investigate the race and see if there are any hidden stuff that some fresh eyes can give you for better plays ...
Of course after they run...

Mike

[mhaney0423]

Well folks, I have to report it was an absolutely atrocious month for AVC horses, by far and away the worst month I have seen since I have owned Valuecapper, which dates back > 3years. I will say that fortunately I was in Hawaii August 1-8 without my laptop so I was fortunate to miss out on 12 losers totaling $240 worth of losses but I do include those losses here so as not to skew how bad it truly was, so without further adieu.......

53 BETS

2 WINNERS

WIN% = 3.77

TOTAL BET $1060

TOTAL RETURNED $346

NET RETURN -$714

ROI -67.36%

WINNERS PAID $230 and $116



So this brings our running totals since June 1st 2021 to

159 BETS

12 WINNERS

WIN% = 7.55

TOTAL BET $3180

TOTAL RETURNED $3300

NET RETURN +$120

ROI 3.77%

Still ahead but almost just spinning our wheels.

Now its almost time to tell you all what I already knew about this when I said in post #5 of this thread

If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!

To which Cato, PA, and Pandy all said I was wrong in posts 12, 13, and 14.

But before I bother to tell this, I want someone here to seriously consider what type of races could be eliminated to make the ROI on this go seriously up from 3.77% to 46.14%. Consider the name of this profile we are using is called ANTIVALUE COUNTDOWN. Antivalue is considered to be LAYOFFS, HARD LAST RACE, NEGATIVE CLASS DROP, POOR RECENT FORM, POOR LAST RACE, HARD LAST RACE, HARD RACE OFF LAYOFF, MAIDEN CLAIMING WINNER WITHOUT SUFFICIENT CLASS DROP.
Hint, LAYOFFS is key, what type of horses typically run well off layoffs? Or, a better question, which class(es) of race would one expect layoff horses to run well?

[geroge.burns99]

First off Matt....thanks for putting this together

Telling you what to pass on using these 2 winners is kinda difficult to say...

But to Answer your question on layoffs....IMO Turf horses are better equip to come back from a layoff to win...

I have a list on "Bad favorites" that can help in maybe deciding on AV horses..



Our “Bad Favorites” feature identifies morning line favorites weaker than normal. Some will beat us by winning, but tend to pay less than avg. favorites do. Each day’s “Bad” faves are computer selected, using general patterns of losing favorites. But the computer is not programmed to look for many things which will help I.D. weaker favourites. The following are additional factors common to losing favorites.

1. It’s barely favorite. It’s odds might be 8-5 and another horse is 9-5.
2. It’s ridden by a weak jockey. Someone who wins under 10% of his rides.
3. The jockey has “2nd-itis.” He might have ridden 150 times, had 10 winners and 18 or more places. Rule of thumb? One third more 2nd’s than wins, disqualifies the jock(and horse!) as a possible WIN bet.
4. It’s a 1st time starter from a leading trainer, who’s weak in the category. Especially with a 2 year old.
5. A first time 2 y.o. starting from the rail. Worst are dashes less than 5 furlongs.
6. There are 3 or more first timers in the race.
7. 2nd time starter, ran in the $ or close last time, but its speed fig (Beyer) is well below par for the class.
8. 2nd timer, “Off slowly” then made up a lot of ground. They tend to have gate trouble again.
9. Poor form and switches from grass to dirt. Especially with European horses entered in their first N. American race of a mile or less.
10. European horses, fresh off the plane win their first here on grass, and today is their 2nd N. American grass start. Called the “Euro Bounce.”
11. Multi-switches today. Switches track, surface, distance, jockey, class, weather, etc. The more new things that horses have to try at once, the worse they do.
12. Horse coming off a career best speed fig last time. Especially if the last was 7 or more pts. higher.
Even more so if it is back in less than 3 weeks. It figures to need time to recuperate.
13. Horse had a bad trip last time. Especially prone to repeat bad trips are deep closers. Worst are deep closers with weak jockeys.
14. Horse only wins wire-to-wire and 2 or more speed horses are inside it today.
15. Outside post when race starts very near the first turn. Speed horses out there are especially vulnerable unless there are ZERO other speed horses inside.
16. Jocks who are very weak finishers and can’t keep a speed horse going in late scratch. Ones mentioned earlier with 2nd-itis are especially prone to lose stretch duels with speed horses.
17. Good horse in the mud with a bad or frightened wet track jockey.
18. A negative class dropper. Meaning it ran well last out, finishing no worse than a close 4th, not beaten more than 4-5 lengths, in a class it’s proved it can handle. Today for no apparent reason, the horse is dropping in class. BEWARE: many barns don’t want to winter a horse for 3-6 months and drop them one class as the meet winds down.

Finally, there is a huge difference between a good horse and a good bet. If you must play a “Bad” fave, insist on 3-1 odds. If its odds are less than that, play exactas only.


mike

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

First off Matt....thanks for putting this together

Telling you what to pass on using these 2 winners is kinda difficult to say...

But to Answer your question on layoffs....IMO Turf horses are better equip to come back from a layoff to win...

I have a list on "Bad favorites" that can help in maybe deciding on AV horses..



Our “Bad Favorites” feature identifies morning line favorites weaker than normal. Some will beat us by winning, but tend to pay less than avg. favorites do. Each day’s “Bad” faves are computer selected, using general patterns of losing favorites. But the computer is not programmed to look for many things which will help I.D. weaker favourites. The following are additional factors common to losing favorites.

1. It’s barely favorite. It’s odds might be 8-5 and another horse is 9-5.
2. It’s ridden by a weak jockey. Someone who wins under 10% of his rides.
3. The jockey has “2nd-itis.” He might have ridden 150 times, had 10 winners and 18 or more places. Rule of thumb? One third more 2nd’s than wins, disqualifies the jock(and horse!) as a possible WIN bet.
4. It’s a 1st time starter from a leading trainer, who’s weak in the category. Especially with a 2 year old.
5. A first time 2 y.o. starting from the rail. Worst are dashes less than 5 furlongs.
6. There are 3 or more first timers in the race.
7. 2nd time starter, ran in the $ or close last time, but its speed fig (Beyer) is well below par for the class.
8. 2nd timer, “Off slowly” then made up a lot of ground. They tend to have gate trouble again.
9. Poor form and switches from grass to dirt. Especially with European horses entered in their first N. American race of a mile or less.
10. European horses, fresh off the plane win their first here on grass, and today is their 2nd N. American grass start. Called the “Euro Bounce.”
11. Multi-switches today. Switches track, surface, distance, jockey, class, weather, etc. The more new things that horses have to try at once, the worse they do.
12. Horse coming off a career best speed fig last time. Especially if the last was 7 or more pts. higher.
Even more so if it is back in less than 3 weeks. It figures to need time to recuperate.
13. Horse had a bad trip last time. Especially prone to repeat bad trips are deep closers. Worst are deep closers with weak jockeys.
14. Horse only wins wire-to-wire and 2 or more speed horses are inside it today.
15. Outside post when race starts very near the first turn. Speed horses out there are especially vulnerable unless there are ZERO other speed horses inside.
16. Jocks who are very weak finishers and can’t keep a speed horse going in late scratch. Ones mentioned earlier with 2nd-itis are especially prone to lose stretch duels with speed horses.
17. Good horse in the mud with a bad or frightened wet track jockey.
18. A negative class dropper. Meaning it ran well last out, finishing no worse than a close 4th, not beaten more than 4-5 lengths, in a class it’s proved it can handle. Today for no apparent reason, the horse is dropping in class. BEWARE: many barns don’t want to winter a horse for 3-6 months and drop them one class as the meet winds down.

Finally, there is a huge difference between a good horse and a good bet. If you must play a “Bad” fave, insist on 3-1 odds. If its odds are less than that, play exactas only.


mike

Hey Mike,

Appreciate the list, and we agree on many of things on your list, the thing is, I dont look for these horses, Valuecapper gives them to me. It is not necessarily looking for a vulnerable favorite, there is a different profile for that. What we are looking for is a race where at least the top two horse on the VALUECAPPER line have some sort of antivalue, often one of those two is the favorite but not always, sometimes it may be that the first four or five horses on the line have antivalue, we bet the first horse down the line WITHOUT antivalue, provided that there are #1) That all the horses above it have antivalue, #2) that there are at least two antivalue horses above it, and #3) our horse needs to fall in the "arc" which means our odds need to have the horse with at least a random chance to win (7-1 in an 8 horse field, 11-1 in a 12 horse field and so on).

Since layoffs is such a big part of the antivalue equasion, I asked myself long ago, what type of races do horse run well in off layoffs (45day or more). The obvious answer is Stakes races, what was not quite so obvious to me but does make sense is Alw/OptClm races and MSW races. So essentially this leaves us with just claimers both maiden claimers and any other claiming race. Heres what happens with our June 1- August 31 sample when we eliminate these races (attached)

[lefty359]

Hey,Matt, great stuff. Knowing what to eliminate is mos valuable.
Thanks.

[Kbatch57]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Hey Mike,

Appreciate the list, and we agree on many of things on your list, the thing is, I dont look for these horses, Valuecapper gives them to me. It is not necessarily looking for a vulnerable favorite, there is a different profile for that. What we are looking for is a race where at least the top two horse on the VALUECAPPER line have some sort of antivalue, often one of those two is the favorite but not always, sometimes it may be that the first four or five horses on the line have antivalue, we bet the first horse down the line WITHOUT antivalue, provided that there are #1) That all the horses above it have antivalue, #2) that there are at least two antivalue horses above it, and #3) our horse needs to fall in the "arc" which means our odds need to have the horse with at least a random chance to win (7-1 in an 8 horse field, 11-1 in a 12 horse field and so on).

Since layoffs is such a big part of the antivalue equasion, I asked myself long ago, what type of races do horse run well in off layoffs (45day or more). The obvious answer is Stakes races, what was not quite so obvious to me but does make sense is Alw/OptClm races and MSW races. So essentially this leaves us with just claimers both maiden claimers and any other claiming race. Heres what happens with our June 1- August 31 sample when we eliminate these races (attached)

Hi Matt,

Total Net of $932 over a 3 month period minus the cost of Data $372 equals a true total net of $560 which averages out being a net profit of $187 per month (So far).

In order to improve on the net income you either have to increase the hit rate to at least 15% or higher and/or increase your base wager considerably.

Depending on the Track, increasing your wager could impact the odds on your Horse.

So, you would need to find out what is the maximum bet size that you can make in the Win pool at each Track before you start impacting the odds.

Even though the AVC Portfolio has shown a profit so far in your testing, it is not a Portfolio that you are going to get rich from (at least out of the box).. Maybe with some further fine tuning and tweaking the hit rate and net profit can be increased enough to make it worthwhile using this Portfolio.

For myself, I would not be happy with a net profit of $187 per month, especially if I intended on using ValueCapper as a means of generating a supplemental income. Granted any profit is better than being in the red!

For someone that considers playing the Horses a hobby and is happy generating a small profit as well, than the AVC Portfolio may be just what they are looking for.

Thanks.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by Kbatch57

Hi Matt,

Total Net of $932 over a 3 month period minus the cost of Data $372 equals a true total net of $560 which averages out being a net profit of $187 per month (So far).

In order to improve on the net income you either have to increase the hit rate to at least 15% or higher and/or increase your base wager considerably.

Depending on the Track, increasing your wager could impact the odds on your Horse.

So, you would need to find out what is the maximum bet size that you can make in the Win pool at each Track before you start impacting the odds.

Even though the AVC Portfolio has shown a profit so far in your testing, it is not a Portfolio that you are going to get rich from (at least out of the box).. Maybe with some further fine tuning and tweaking the hit rate and net profit can be increased enough to make it worthwhile using this Portfolio.

For myself, I would not be happy with a net profit of $187 per month, especially if I intended on using ValueCapper as a means of generating a supplemental income. Granted any profit is better than being in the red!

For someone that considers playing the Horses a hobby and is happy generating a small profit as well, than the AVC Portfolio may be just what they are looking for.

Thanks.

Hey Kbatch,

Appreciate your comments and you are correct, this is not a get rich quick scheme. For me this is just a hobby and I am perfectly happy to pay for my data and maybe buy a bottle of boubon and a dinner each month. Matter of fact I would say you would be hard pressed to show me one person who generates a "supplemental income" from win betting alone.

One must remember, this is one of my hobbies, along with drinking bourbon, playing guitar, smoking meat/cooking, watching football, and working out. Plus I still work 40 hours a week, have a 17YO daughter to run around and serve as her roadie/sound guy for her shows. So I dont have time to even watch too many races, more or less, break a race down, and watch the odds board and structure bets. I place all my bets at noon eastern conditionally and I may look at results once or twice a day.

AVC is just one of the portfolios I use, it is not necessarily the most profitable, but in my 3 years with Valuecapper it is the most consistent. At any rate, I think like you said its all a matter of what you are trying to achieve in this game. I will say that a lot of the guys who play this game as a career or as a supplemental income almost always end up selling books or software or picks to supplement their supplemental income. What does that tell you? As for me, if I had to depend on betting horses for any type of income, it would take the enjoyment out of it for me.

Best,

Matt

[geroge.burns99]

Matt...

Did you know those results as you were betting or just recently figure betting Claimers is most profitable?

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Matt...

Did you know those results as you were betting or just recently figure betting Claimers is most profitable?

I knew claimers were most profitable when I started this thread, hence why I said that by using a little common sense and looking at PPs one could make it more profitable. I dont often post things that I dont already know the answer to on here, too many people waiting in the wings to show you that you are wrong

I honestly just didn't want to do all the research for other VCP users, of which there are plenty on here

I will tell you though, I didnt figure this out by not betting them lol