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11-02-2021, 10:09 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Exacta Idea
Win position should be a horse ml under 5 to one
Must be in PP 1234
Must not be the ML Favorite
Should be in your softwares top 3 picks.
The place horse is opposite running style.
What do you think?
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11-03-2021, 08:09 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
Win position should be a horse ml under 5 to one
Must be in PP 1234
Must not be the ML Favorite
Should be in your softwares top 3 picks.
The place horse is opposite running style.
What do you think?
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Instead of PP 1234, perhaps pick a percentage. For instance, must be in a post that wins at 12% or higher.
If you look at Parx, for instance, in the route (two turn) races, posts 1 through 8 all win at 11% or higher, only posts 9 to 13 are a disadvantage. Sprints are different, posts 1 through 5 have had a clear advantage all year, all winning over 12%.
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11-03-2021, 11:44 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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My software shows the all burger much higher too in inside post. But I get that. People way over play the outside posts.
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11-03-2021, 11:46 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Maybe the place position should only be the 1234 ! My htr has live longshots listed. I will test them in the place position. They are called $$ plays.
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11-03-2021, 02:41 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Trying these...
Remington Park 4 $2.00 EXA 3 / 2, 5 $4.00
Penn National 4 $2.00 EXA 4 / 2, 3 $4.00
Mahoning Valley 5 $2.00 EXA 2, 3 / 1, 2, 3, 4 $12.00
Mountaineer Park 6 $2.00 EXA 1, 3 / 1, 2, 3 $8.00
Mountaineer Park 1 $2.00 EXA 5 / 3 $2.00
Mountaineer Park 1 $2.00 EXA 5 / 1 $2.00
Indiana Grand 6 $2.00 EXA 1, 2 / 1, 2, 3, 5 $12.00
Indiana Grand 5 $2.00 EXA 5 / 3 $2.00
Churchill Downs 4 $2.00 EXA 3 / 6 $2.00 $0.00
Del Mar 1 $2.00 EXA 2 / 3 $2.00
Churchill Downs 4 $2.00 EXA 3 / 2, 5 $4.00 $0.00
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11-04-2021, 12:37 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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new exacta system...
Gulfstream 8 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 4 $20.00
Gulfstream 7 $10.00 EXA 1 / 3, 4 $20.00
Gulfstream 6 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 3 $30.00
Gulfstream 5 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 3 $20.00
Gulfstream 4 $10.00 EXA 1 / 2, 3 $20.00
Gulfstream 3 $10.00 EXA 1 / 2, 5 $20.00
Gulfstream 2 $10.00 EXA 2 / 4 $10.00
Churchill Downs 1 $10.00 EXA 1 / 2, 4 $20.00
Laurel Park 1 $10.00 EXA 4 / 2, 3 $20.00 $105.00
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11-04-2021, 12:41 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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My new exacta system has top horse not the mlf, must be my software selection and be in the top 3 pics. Then the second horses are just 2 horses, they are in pp 1234 not program number necessarily. They will be slightly handicapped to throw out horses with little chance of 2nd.
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11-04-2021, 09:31 PM
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#8
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,363
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Instead of PP 1234, perhaps pick a percentage. For instance, must be in a post that wins at 12% or higher.
If you look at Parx, for instance, in the route (two turn) races, posts 1 through 8 all win at 11% or higher, only posts 9 to 13 are a disadvantage. Sprints are different, posts 1 through 5 have had a clear advantage all year, all winning over 12%.
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The problem with evaluating post position using a straight win percentage is obviously the outer post positions are only used in races with large fields, whereas post one would often be up against only four or five opponents.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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11-05-2021, 12:05 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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This is the latest version...
Real Money bets. Roi on win pick is .90 Idea is to be efficient in the place position to bring the bet to even. Scrape the rebate I hope.
Woodbine TB 6 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 4, 5, 8 $40.00
Woodbine TB 1 $10.00 EXA 3 / 2, 5, 7 $30.00
Turf Paradise 7 $10.00 EXA 3 / 4, 8 $20.00
Turf Paradise 5 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 7, 9 $30.00
Turf Paradise 2 $10.00 EXA 2 / 3, 7, 8 $30.00
Turf Paradise 1 $10.00 EXA 4 / 3, 7, 8 $30.00
Remington Park 1 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1, 2, 4, 7 $40.00
Penn National 7 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 3, 4, 7 $40.00
Penn National 5 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1, 2, 6 $30.00
Laurel Park 4 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 3 $30.00
Delta Downs 10 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1, 2, 4, 5 $40.00
Delta Downs 9 $10.00 EXA 4 / 2, 6, 8 $30.00
Delta Downs 7 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 3, 5 $30.00
Delta Downs 4 $10.00 EXA 1 / 3, 4, 5 $30.00
Delta Downs 1 $10.00 EXA 4 / 2, 8, 9 $30.00
Charles Town 1 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 5, 7 $40.00
Churchill Downs 9 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 3, 4, 8 $40.00
Churchill Downs 6 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 3 $30.00
Churchill Downs 3 $10.00 EXA 3 / 2, 4 $20.00
Churchill Downs 2 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 3, 6, 8 $40.00
Belmont Park 5 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 7 $30.00
Last edited by teddy; 11-05-2021 at 12:06 PM.
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11-05-2021, 12:32 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Place horse efficiencey
Anyone with ideas about the place position?? How to improve the roi.
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11-05-2021, 12:39 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
Anyone with ideas about the place position?? How to improve the roi.
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4th ML pick that has odds lower than his/her ML odds.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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11-05-2021, 12:42 PM
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#12
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,877
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Quote:
Originally Posted by therussmeister
The problem with evaluating post position using a straight win percentage is obviously the outer post positions are only used in races with large fields, whereas post one would often be up against only four or five opponents.
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So few people get that.
The correct approach is to use Impact Values derived using the formula:
IV = Wins / ExWins
Where:
Wins = Total Wins
ExWins = sum of 1 / FieldSize for all horses.
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11-05-2021, 11:36 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Success!
Woodbine TB 6 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 4, 5, 8 $40.00 $0.00
Woodbine TB 1 $10.00 EXA 3 / 2, 5, 7 $30.00 $0.00
Turf Paradise 7 $10.00 EXA 3 / 4, 8 $20.00 $10.00
Turf Paradise 5 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 7, 9 $30.00 $0.00
Turf Paradise 2 $10.00 EXA 2 / 3, 7, 8 $30.00 $110.00
Turf Paradise 1 $10.00 EXA 4 / 3, 7, 8 $30.00 $0.00
Remington Park 1 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1, 2, 4, 7 $40.00 $10.00
Penn National 7 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 3, 4, 7 $40.00 $132.00
Penn National 5 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1, 2, 6 $30.00 $0.00
Delta Downs 10 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1, 2, 4, 5 $40.00 $94.00
Delta Downs 9 $10.00 EXA 4 / 2, 6, 8 $30.00 $10.00
Delta Downs 7 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 3, 5 $30.00 $30.00
Delta Downs 4 $10.00 EXA 1 / 3, 4, 5 $30.00 $0.00
Delta Downs 1 $10.00 EXA 4 / 2, 8, 9 $30.00 $0.00
Charles Town 1 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 5, 7 $40.00 $65.00
Churchill Downs 9 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 3, 4, 8 $40.00 $0.00
Churchill Downs 6 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 3 $30.00 $283.00
Churchill Downs 3 $10.00 EXA 3 / 2, 4 $20.00 $0.00
Churchill Downs 2 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 3, 6, 8 $40.00 $0.00
Belmont Park 5 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 7 $30.00 $0.00
Bet $680
Returned $743
Rebates $64.00
Last edited by teddy; 11-05-2021 at 11:37 PM.
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11-06-2021, 09:30 AM
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#14
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,909
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
So few people get that.
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True, but smart handicappers would have read Percentages & Probabilities written by some guy (I forget his name).
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
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11-06-2021, 09:33 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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I'm considering using trainer stats to remove some plays and pace bias to refine.
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