ValueCapper AVC Portfolio Blind Bet Results

[jp320]

I think a good bottle of single malt would be good
Cheers

[geroge.burns99]

We have something similar to your AVC horses called NEGS in HTR.
I'm sure the is some sort of similarities between them.

The chart below shows the ROI and win % for horses via number of negative's.

PIX #1 shows ALL Horses

Looking at that , you say ahhhh...horses with more than 2 NEG's are quite a few and maybe the gems will be there


PIX #2

ALL horses going off 2-1 and less....

Selections not to many for a years worth of data


bottom line , the favorites will still win the race
Mike

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

We have something similar to your AVC horses called NEGS in HTR.
I'm sure the is some sort of similarities between them.

The chart below shows the ROI and win % for horses via number of negative's.

PIX #1 shows ALL Horses

Looking at that , you say ahhhh...horses with more than 2 NEG's are quite a few and maybe the gems will be there


PIX #2

ALL horses going off 2-1 and less....

Selections not to many for a years worth of data


bottom line , the favorites will still win the race
Mike

Of course favorite win, unfortunately approaching 40% of the time nowadays. That doesn't mean you cannot be profitable betting against them because they also lose 60% of the time.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Well folks, I have to report it was an absolutely atrocious month for AVC horses, by far and away the worst month I have seen since I have owned Valuecapper, which dates back > 3years. I will say that fortunately I was in Hawaii August 1-8 without my laptop so I was fortunate to miss out on 12 losers totaling $240 worth of losses but I do include those losses here so as not to skew how bad it truly was, so without further adieu.......

53 BETS

2 WINNERS

WIN% = 3.77

TOTAL BET $1060

TOTAL RETURNED $346

NET RETURN -$714

ROI -67.36%

WINNERS PAID $230 and $116



So this brings our running totals since June 1st 2021 to

159 BETS

12 WINNERS

WIN% = 7.55

TOTAL BET $3180

TOTAL RETURNED $3300

NET RETURN +$120

ROI 3.77%

Still ahead but almost just spinning our wheels.

Now its almost time to tell you all what I already knew about this when I said in post #5 of this thread
To which Cato, PA, and Pandy all said I was wrong in posts 12, 13, and 14.

But before I bother to tell this, I want someone here to seriously consider what type of races could be eliminated to make the ROI on this go seriously up from 3.77% to 46.14%. Consider the name of this profile we are using is called ANTIVALUE COUNTDOWN. Antivalue is considered to be LAYOFFS, HARD LAST RACE, NEGATIVE CLASS DROP, POOR RECENT FORM, POOR LAST RACE, HARD LAST RACE, HARD RACE OFF LAYOFF, MAIDEN CLAIMING WINNER WITHOUT SUFFICIENT CLASS DROP.
Hint, LAYOFFS is key, what type of horses typically run well off layoffs? Or, a better question, which class(es) of race would one expect layoff horses to run well?

It takes a lot of integrity to publicly post an atrocious month of betting, when no one knows that it ever took place. It's during the losing months that the classy guys rise to the top. I take my hat off to you.

[Mikym]

Hey Matt, this really is amazing work, and very valuable. Thanks for doing this!

[Kbatch57]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Hey Kbatch,

Appreciate your comments and you are correct, this is not a get rich quick scheme. For me this is just a hobby and I am perfectly happy to pay for my data and maybe buy a bottle of boubon and a dinner each month. Matter of fact I would say you would be hard pressed to show me one person who generates a "supplemental income" from win betting alone.

One must remember, this is one of my hobbies, along with drinking bourbon, playing guitar, smoking meat/cooking, watching football, and working out. Plus I still work 40 hours a week, have a 17YO daughter to run around and serve as her roadie/sound guy for her shows. So I dont have time to even watch too many races, more or less, break a race down, and watch the odds board and structure bets. I place all my bets at noon eastern conditionally and I may look at results once or twice a day.

AVC is just one of the portfolios I use, it is not necessarily the most profitable, but in my 3 years with Valuecapper it is the most consistent. At any rate, I think like you said its all a matter of what you are trying to achieve in this game. I will say that a lot of the guys who play this game as a career or as a supplemental income almost always end up selling books or software or picks to supplement their supplemental income. What does that tell you? As for me, if I had to depend on betting horses for any type of income, it would take the enjoyment out of it for me.

Best,

Matt

Hi Matt,

Thanks for the reply and the explanation of why you play the Horses!

From your comments, I guess I may be setting my expectations a little too high!

Regards.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by Kbatch57

Hi Matt,

Thanks for the reply and the explanation of why you play the Horses!

From your comments, I guess I may be setting my expectations a little too high!

Regards.

I certainly did not mean to discourage, I am not saying it can't be done. I honestly think I could eek out a meager living by just playing the horses, but it would take a helluva a lot more work than Im willing to put into it. I am sure there are guys on this board that do quite well and I am 100% sure there are guys on this board who have forgotten more about handicapping than I will ever know!

Best,

M

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It takes a lot of integrity to publicly post an atrocious month of betting, when no one knows that it ever took place. It's during the losing months that the classy guys rise to the top. I take my hat off to you.

Thank you Thask, I am a glutton for punishment I guess!! Actually, I believe it is very important to show these losing months, I have always said that they happen....and they happen frequently, although I cant recall one quite this bad.

[mhaney0423]

Hello All,

Happy to report that we got back to our winning ways in September

33 BETS

3 WINNERS

WIN% = 9.09

TOTAL BET $660

TOTAL RETURNED $916

NET RETURN $256

ROI 38.79%

WINNERS PAID $296, $430, $190

This brings our season totals since June 1st to

192 BETS

15 WINNERS

WIN% = 7.81

TOTAL BET $3840

TOTAL RETURNED $4216

NET RETURN +$376

ROI 9.79%


If we eliminate everything but claiming races in Sept we lose one winner but win% and ROI are barely effected.

23 BETS

2 WINNERS

WIN% = 8.69

TOTAL BET $460

TOTAL RETURNED $620

NET RETURN $160

ROI 34.78%

WINNERS PAID $430, $190


Only Claimers for the season gives us

124 BETS

12 WINNERS

WIN% = 9.67

TOTAL BET $2480

TOTAL RETURNED $3572

NET RETURN $1092

ROI 44.03%

There are fewer and fewer of these races as we head into Fall/Winter but I will keep this going for at least a few more months

[geroge.burns99]

Thxs Matt...appreciate it....

A few more positive months will pay for the Data..........

[mhaney0423]

Hey Mike,

I normally am able to pay for data every month, AVC is not all I bet. Here's Sept for me from TwinSpires. Keep in mind, I place all of these bets regardless of what time they run at noon eastern, often without scratches and or weather. I do download what scratches are available about 11:30EST but I dont normally look again after that. Nothing earth shattering here, basically a 15% ROI and about an 11% win percentage which is generally in the ballpark for what I average. See attached

Tot INV Tot Ret NET ROI WIN
3990 4621 $631 15.80% 11.11%

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Hey Mike,

I normally am able to pay for data every month, AVC is not all I bet. Here's Sept for me from TwinSpires. Keep in mind, I place all of these bets regardless of what time they run at noon eastern, often without scratches and or weather. I do download what scratches are available about 11:30EST but I dont normally look again after that. Nothing earth shattering here, basically a 15% ROI and about an 11% win percentage which is generally in the ballpark for what I average. See attached

Tot INV Tot Ret NET ROI WIN
3990 4621 $631 15.80% 11.11%

I knew your were holding out on me

thats some nice work!!!

theres a lot of people that will say a 11% win % won't get you anywhere...

Your the proff!!!

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Hey Mike,

I normally am able to pay for data every month, AVC is not all I bet. Here's Sept for me from TwinSpires. Keep in mind, I place all of these bets regardless of what time they run at noon eastern, often without scratches and or weather. I do download what scratches are available about 11:30EST but I dont normally look again after that. Nothing earth shattering here, basically a 15% ROI and about an 11% win percentage which is generally in the ballpark for what I average. See attached

Tot INV	 Tot Ret   NET	  ROI	  WIN
  3990    4621 	  $631 	15.80%	11.11%

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

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Thanks man, I have no.clue how you did that, but it looks like it did when I posted it!! Awesome !!

[lefty359]

Matt, since you place bets all at one time, what's your criteria to
be reasonably sure you will get your price?