Can large racing syndicates have a negative effect on a horses odds ?

[westernmassbob]

I ask this question because a friend of mine has a small share of a horse through Little Red Feather racing. Whenever his horse is running he always touts that it has a very good chance of winning. Some of these horses have hundreds of owners tied back to them. I’ve been tracking LRF for the past decade and most of the time their horses are overbet...of course that is my opinion but somehow I think there is a direct link to the number of connections a horse or syndicate has and it’s odds. Of course the positive stance on this is that more money is put into the pools and a greater chance of overlays can occur.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

I ask this question because a friend of mine has a small share of a horse through Little Red Feather racing. Whenever his horse is running he always touts that it has a very good chance of winning. Some of these horses have hundreds of owners tied back to them. I’ve been tracking LRF for the past decade and most of the time their horses are overbet...of course that is my opinion but somehow I think there is a direct link to the number of connections a horse or syndicate has and it’s odds. Of course the positive stance on this is that more money is put into the pools and a greater chance of overlays can occur.

Are they, collectively, subject to bet (say) 6% of the entire pool?

That is what a single "whale" at a medium-sized track might bet.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

I ask this question because a friend of mine has a small share of a horse through Little Red Feather racing. Whenever his horse is running he always touts that it has a very good chance of winning. Some of these horses have hundreds of owners tied back to them. I’ve been tracking LRF for the past decade and most of the time their horses are overbet...of course that is my opinion but somehow I think there is a direct link to the number of connections a horse or syndicate has and it’s odds. Of course the positive stance on this is that more money is put into the pools and a greater chance of overlays can occur.

I've definitely felt the Ten Strike Racing horses at Oaklawn wind up underlaid (vs. my estimate of their chances) on a regular basis.

[elhelmete]

LRF horses are almost always overbet. But their horses run at tracks with big pools so it's hard to say how much for sure. But the group pounds the windows and they do indeed tell all their friends. So who knows.

[tbwinner]

Yes I have noticed this with a syndicate I used to be apart of a decade ago and with horses I owned in partnership with big horse bettors too. Oftentimes when the form showed d no shot, and the horse opened up 1-9 at a mid tier track...a lot of partners just bet it blind...

[o_crunk]

LRF - just the lone ownership group and not in combination with other owners, of which there are dozens - has 346 starts in my db since mid-2014. They've won 64 of those races. If you summed the implied probability (after rake) of each start, it totals 55.63 "wins", so they are winning at a rate higher than the public expects collectively.

[cj]

Only when they win!

[classhandicapper]

I don't know about other ownership groups, but at one time Team Valor had a phone line for partners where training updates were given on all the Team Valor horses. I'm almost certain more people had access to that number than just the partners. It always seemed to me that whenever some very positive news or hype was given on that recording, the horse took a LOT of extra money.