Ticket Construction. The battle of the Pro's vs. On Air Analysts. Who's right?

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

1. Stay tuned.



2. You're wrong but there's nothing I could possibly say or do to convince you otherwise.

What evidence do you have that the Industry is concerned about accuracy? This stuff has been going on for years and Equibase is behind much of it.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[PaceAdvantage]

Some track out there should hire Andy A and ITP and show them how it's done.

This track would be the envy of the nation...

[cj]

Just because you don't like how a message is delivered doesn't mean the message isn't good.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by cj

Just because you don't like how a message is delivered doesn't mean the message isn't good.

On the contrary.

I would very much enjoy watching these two in action.

I'll make it even easier. They could start a stream on twitch. Not too many horseplayers on there streaming. They would have the market cornered on that platform.

Or maybe YouTube would be the better venue...more boomers on there...

Just thinking out loud.

[thaskalos]

There is clearly a need for a roundtable of knowledgeable horseplayers going online and discussing the different topics concerning our game today.

[PaceAdvantage]

In fact, on twitch, some streamers do something called a "Hot Tub Stream."

Just imagine the possibilities.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

In fact, on twitch, some streamers do something called a "Hot Tub Stream."

Just imagine the possibilities.

Can we put something like this together HERE?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by cj

Just because you don't like how a message is delivered doesn't mean the message isn't good.

Good messages delivered by miserable messengers are usually much less effective then they could be.

So...there's that.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There is clearly a need for a roundtable of knowledgeable horseplayers going online and discussing the different topics concerning our game today.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Some track out there should hire Andy A and ITP and show them how it's done.

This track would be the envy of the nation...

I'm no gambling expert like ITP or Tony Zhou. My ticket construction is probably better than average but nowhere near optimal. These guys are gifted gamblers IMO.

[classhandicapper]

I wish this thread was actually discussing ticket construction.

I don't have much of a problem constructing tickets that should provide greater value than a win bet on my key horse(s) (the only reason I'm ever in an exotic pool to begin with). Good value hooked to good value generally provides better value and you have to avoid diluting value trying to cash more bets.

The issue that's tricky is the betting patterns of the public in things like triples, supers, and pick ns, where you don't have price information. There's extra value in those insights if you know that certain horses are likely to be underbet/overbet in certain pools relative to their win odds.

I just started tracking some of that data in my database. It will be awhile before I have anything solid to go on. Right now the little I know is based on observation without hard data to back it up.

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Good messages delivered by miserable messengers are usually much less effective then they could be.

So...there's that.

Well put PA.

In Poor Richard's Almanac (1744) Ben Franklin wrote "Tart Words make no Friends: spoonful of honey will catch more flies than Gallon of Vinegar."

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Just because you don't like how a message is delivered doesn't mean the message isn't good.

Apparently you've yet to be become the subject of the vitriol, unconstructive, personal attacks and bullying. You might feel differently at that point.

[KingAnon]

Originally Posted by craigbraddick

5. There needs to be widespread access to very simple past performances. Form figures for the last six races, a plus or a minus by the name to indicate early or late pace and a sentence or two about each horses chances. When people are ready to take it more seriously, they can start tackling the past performances and learning the nuances of them.

This really bothers me about horse racing.

I'll turn on TVG or look at Equibase sometimes and look over the races for the day at various tracks. I can't imagine paying $3-$5 per track for a racing book. That's a lot of money and assuredly turns off casuals and poorer people.

The idea is really dumb too. If I'm at a horse racing track, we already know the average person is going to spend more than $5 or $10. So they are already paying for the book anyway, why not just give them to people for free? And online, it makes less sense since it doesn't really cost anything to give that data away. In fact, giving that data away may actually lead to people playing and paying more! Plus the forms aren't even out until the day of the race or the night before the race sometimes.

It reminds me of when I went to Atlantic City and they wanted me to pay for parking at a casino. I ended up going to another casino with free parking and they lost $100 to try and get $5 out of me.

And we can't ignore the fact that no matter how many forms you have, the riders and owners of horses know the real odds on that horse's chances of winning that day. And even with that extra crucial information, they still get it wrong too because we are dealing with wild animals that don't even know what a race is.