Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Fyi, the CDC.gov site has since updated the table in question.

The thumbnail at the bottom of this post is a screenshot of their current numbers.

Link, here:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

According to the above chart...here are the weekly death totals for those who had NOT been afflicted with the coronavirus:

2/1............57,424
2/8............57,747
2/15..........57,054
2/22..........57,018
2/29..........57,210
3/7............56,753
3/14..........54,755
3/21..........54,383
3/28..........55,436
4/4............57,248
4/11..........56,603
4/18..........50,228
4/25..........38,675
5/2............17,083

Why such a decline in the coronavirus unrelated deaths during the last two weeks of the chart?

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Fyi, the CDC.gov site has since updated the table in question.

The thumbnail at the bottom of this post is a screenshot of their current numbers.

Link, here:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

The definitions of how each disease is classified are not clear in that table. If pneumonia was responsible for more fatalities than than covid-19, then why is covid-19 heads and heels above all other causes of deaths in the U.S.? And way more than pneumonia? .

Covid-19 is rapidly becoming America’s leading cause of death
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...h/?arc404=true....

Coronavirus kills more than most other causes

Covid-19 killed more people from April 6 to April 12 than any other cause of death except heart disease typically does in a normal April week.

The COVID-19 data below is powered by the daily death count from John Hopkins University starting on March 21. The other leading causes of death are extrapolated from the most recent CDC publication on the subject.

https://www.wesh.com/article/coronav...tates/32380058

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by hcap

The definitions of how each disease is classified are not clear in that table. If pneumonia was responsible for more fatalities than than covid-19, then why is covid-19 heads and heels above all other causes of deaths in the U.S.? And way more than pneumonia? By about 20:1

Covid-19 is rapidly becoming America’s leading cause of death
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...h/?arc404=true


https://www.wesh.com/article/coronav...tates/32380058

double lulz

[hcap]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

According to the above chart...here are the weekly death totals for those who had NOT been afflicted with the coronavirus:

2/1............57,424
2/8............57,747
2/15..........57,054
2/22..........57,018
2/29..........57,210
3/7............56,753
3/14..........54,755
3/21..........54,383
3/28..........55,436
4/4............57,248
4/11..........56,603
4/18..........50,228
4/25..........38,675
5/2............17,083

Why such a decline in the coronavirus unrelated deaths during the last two weeks of the chart?

This is why it is not clear.
The last column in that table is "Deaths with Pneumonia influenza or covid-19". The codes do not specify a specific organism.

J18.9 is a billable ICD code used to specify a diagnosis of pneumonia, by an unspecified organism. A 'billable code' is detailed enough to be used to specify a medical diagnosis.
https://icd.codes/icd10cm/J189

The code for pneumonia alone in column 5 includes many specific types of pneumonia. [B]J12General Guidance PneumoniaFor a pneumonia case confirmed as due to the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), assign codes J12.89, Other viral pneumonia, and B97.29, Other coronavirus as the cause of diseases classified elsewhere.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/icd/IC...eb-20-2020.pdf
I believe further clarification is needed.

We do not understand covid-19 role as the organism in causing pneumonia deaths

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by hcap

The code for pneumonia alone in column 5 includes many specific types of pneumonia. J09is a billable ICD code used to specify a diagnosis of influenza due to identified novel influenza A virus with other manifestations. A 'billable code' is detailed enough to be used to specify a medical diagnosis. So that column seems to include the covid-19 as a cause of death. It does not specifically exclude covid-19.

Covid-19 labeled patients are billed 3X the amount for starting treatment versus pneumonia patients....Fact, but I'm sure you must know this already...

[hcap]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Covid-19 labeled patients are billed 3X the amount for starting treatment versus pneumonia patients....Fact, but I'm sure you must know this already...

Probably "Q" is doing the billing.

Double lulz or double Q-ulz

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by hcap

Probably "Q" is doing the billing.

Double lulz or double Q-ulz

Since you're somewhat awake, why don't you answer the question I posed to you earlier:

Quick question during the Covid-19 pandemic....

Why are there commercials for Enbrel, Stelara and Humera, which suppresses the immune system, isn't this a recipe for death?

[hcap]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Since you're somewhat awake, why don't you answer the question I posed to you earlier:

Quick question during the Covid-19 pandemic....

Why are there commercials for Enbrel, Stelara and Humera, which suppresses the immune system, isn't this a recipe for death?

Unlike you and a few other fanatics here, I prefer to investigate before I pontificate.

What is your claim? If I feel like it maybe I will check it out.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by hcap

Unlike you and a few other fanatics here, I prefer to investigate before I pontificate.

What is your claim? If I feel like it maybe I will check it out.

There's a reason why I asked the question....Big Pharma seems not to be afraid of litigation, when running ads for their products which DO make everyone much more vulnerable to the virus.

Seems to me, these ads shouldn't be taking place if there truly was a REAL Pandemic...

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

According to the above chart...here are the weekly death totals for those who had NOT been afflicted with the coronavirus:

2/1............57,424
2/8............57,747
2/15..........57,054
2/22..........57,018
2/29..........57,210
3/7............56,753
3/14..........54,755
3/21..........54,383
3/28..........55,436
4/4............57,248
4/11..........56,603
4/18..........50,228
4/25..........38,675
5/2............17,083

Why such a decline in the coronavirus unrelated deaths during the last two weeks of the chart?

Not surprised Thask picked up on the anomaly which also explains the discrepancy between the confirmed (U7.1) Covid-19 death total (ca. 44k) listed here and the current figures from Johns Hopkins, et. al.. As they explain on their site (excerpt below) the cdc totals are different because of a lag in the process of completing the death certificate, which applies not only to Covid-19 but to all deaths. IOW, there have been about 25-30k Covid-19 deaths since the death certificates for these cases were filed.

One point of confusion in this thread -- pneumonia is an infection, not the cause of death, which is most often a bacteria (ca. 60%), a virus (30%) or less often a fungus or other cause. In an average year, streptococcus pneumoniae would be a leading cause of death from pneumonia, but as we know, this is far from an average year in the medical world.



"Why these numbers are different

Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths."

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by lansdale

Not surprised Thask picked up on the anomaly which also explains the discrepancy between the confirmed (U7.1) Covid-19 death total (ca. 44k) listed here and the current figures from Johns Hopkins, et. al.. As they explain on their site (exerpt below) the cdc totals are different because of a lag in the process of completing the death certificate, which applies not only to Covid-19 but to all deaths. IOW, there have been about 25-30k Covid-19 deaths since the death certificates for these cases were filed.

One point of confusion in this thread -- pneumonia is an infection, not the cause of death, which is most often a bacteria (ca. 60%), a virus (30%) or less often a fungus or other cause. In an average year, streptococcus pneumoniae would be a leading cause of death from pneumonia, but as we know, this is far from an average year in the medical world.



"Why these numbers are different

Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths."

Correct code for Covid-19 should be 'UO7.1' not 'U7.1.' There was an additional category, UO7.2, for unconfirmed Covid-19 deaths -- may not still be in use.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

According to the above chart...here are the weekly death totals for those who had NOT been afflicted with the coronavirus:


Why such a decline in the coronavirus unrelated deaths during the last two weeks of the chart?

1. We are running out of people
2. They are piling up the COVID deaths

[Tom]

Originally Posted by hcap

Unlike you and a few other fanatics here, I prefer to investigate before I pontificate.

What is your claim? If I feel like it maybe I will check it out.

No one doubts you investigating things.
It is what you come up with that boggles our minds!

[hcap]

Sweden vs. New Zealand: How 2 coronavirus approaches had drastically different outcomes

YouTube (Short URL)

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, Sweden is about to disappear from the map...they've done themselves in...poor bastards...