Mountaineer is unplayable

[Tom]

The cure for not being criticized for being a lousy rider is not to ride lousy.

Derby -day, always a good day for me at the Mountain.
Looking forward.

[mountainman]

*trier

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Tom

The cure for not being criticized for being a lousy rider is not to ride lousy.

Derby -day, always a good day for me at the Mountain.
Looking forward.

TX, Tom. Do me a favor, watch the guy on a horse and tell me if my characterization was accurate.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Tom

The cure for not being criticized for being a lousy rider is not to ride lousy.

Derby -day, always a good day for me at the Mountain.
Looking forward.

I turned most of this year's recruiting over to my brother, Gary. He's an ex-trainer and jock's agent new to the office, but as sharp as they come. Gary is making tons of phone calls and busting his hump on the derby.

I just wish there was an intimidating horse to scare Haskell prospects our way.

[Jeff P]

Imo, the stats often have a way of speaking for themselves.


This is what I have for MNR rider standings 2019 ytd:

****************************************************************************************
MNR 2019 BY RIDER sorted by wins                         Run Date: 6/14/2019 10:18:05 AM
****************************************************************************************
                                       WIN  WIN          WIN               PLACE   PLACE
NAME              MOUNTS   WINS        PCT  IMPACT       ROI  PLACES         PCT     ROI
****************************************************************************************
BARBARAN ERIK       134     37      0.2761  1.8021    0.9134    56        0.4179  0.7127  
QUINONES LUIS M     131     34      0.2595  1.6937    0.9282    58        0.4427  0.8412  
OLIVEROS CHARLE     119     26      0.2185  1.4261    0.7782    48        0.4034  0.858   
GONZALEZ ALEX       117     19      0.1624  1.06      0.7385    34        0.2906  0.7744  
HERNANDEZ LUCIANO   132     18      0.1364  0.8903    0.7242    34        0.2576  0.572   
ORTIZ WILKIN        107     16      0.1495  0.9758    1.0757    33        0.3084  0.7785  
YARANGA YURI        106     14      0.1321  0.8622    0.7575    26        0.2453  0.9189  
WILLIAMS AJHARI     102     13      0.1275  0.8322    0.4706    27        0.2647  0.5971  
SERRANO KEIVAN      95      13      0.1368  0.8929    0.9042    26        0.2737  0.8337  
RAMGEET ANDREW R    68      10      0.1471  0.9601    0.4191    24        0.3529  0.7809  
BATISTA LUIS A      46      9       0.1957  1.2773    0.8826    19        0.413   0.7848  
RIVERA LUIS RAUL    34      8       0.2353  1.5358    0.4529    16        0.4706  0.9706  
GONZALEZ KEVIN      90      6       0.0667  0.4353    0.7144    13        0.1444  0.6922  
BARRIOS RICARDO     78      6       0.0769  0.5019    0.4449    18        0.2308  0.7564  
PAUCAR EDGAR        32      5       0.1563  1.0202    1.9156    13        0.4063  1.5531  
HOUGHTON T D        19      4       0.2105  1.3739    2.2211    6         0.3158  1.1316  
JURADO EDDIE        58      3       0.0517  0.3374    0.2293    10        0.1724  0.6121  
CCAMAQUE MARCO A    28      3       0.1071  0.699     0.2714    7         0.25    0.5321  
HOLBROOK LOGAN      50      2       0.04    0.2611    0.244     4         0.08    0.234   
DAVILA JOSE M       30      2       0.0667  0.4353    0.6233    5         0.1667  0.6233  
BOCACHICA ARNALDO   3       2       0.6667  4.3515    1.1       3         1       1.2333  
STANLEY ANGEL ORTEG 7       1       0.1429  0.9327    0.3571    3         0.4286  2.1714  
VIGIL NOEL          4       1       0.25    1.6317    1.625     2         0.5     2.2     
ALMODOVAR GERALD    4       1       0.25    1.6317    0.3       3         0.75    1.125   
PELTROCHE FREDY     3       1       0.3333  2.1754    0.5       2         0.6667  0.8667  
HO WESLEY           3       1       0.3333  2.1754    1.3       1         0.3333  0.7667  
ROSARIO JR HECTOR L 3       1       0.3333  2.1754    1.6       1         0.3333  0.7     
BEATO INOEL         2       1       0.5     3.2635    0.9       1         0.5     0.65    
VELEZ JUAN J L      2       1       0.5     3.2635    0.8       0         0       0       
GARCIA GEOVANY      1       1       1       6.5269    2.9       1         1       1.9     
WHITACRE GRANT      1       1       1       6.5269    1.7       1         1       1.4     
SANTIAGO GILBERTO   27      0       0       0         0         2         0.0741  0.1963  
SANTIAGO VICTOR     13      0       0       0         0         1         0.0769  0.1231  
SANTOS OSMAN        7       0       0       0         0         1         0.1429  0.5714  
HYNES TARA          5       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
SIMPSON JASON       5       0       0       0         0         3         0.6     1.5     
DIAZ RENZO          4       0       0       0         0         2         0.5     1.45    
MORALES KELVIN      4       0       0       0         0         2         0.5     1.025   
RIVERA JAVIER       4       0       0       0         0         1         0.25    0.375   
ROCHA WLADIMIR      4       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
THORPE DARIUS       3       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
LARROSA GUSTAVO     2       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
FIGUEROA SERGIO     2       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
MAYHEW GLENMORE W   2       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
LAGUNES GABRIEL     2       0       0       0         0         2         1       3.15    
SPIETH SCOTT        1       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
BERRIOS HECTOR      1       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
TOLEDO JOAM S       1       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
SALAZAR BECERRA FERN1       0       0       0         0         1         1       3       
****************************************************************************************
49 Riders from file: StarterHistory Table
****************************************************************************************

This is what I have in the DB if one were unfortunate enough to have bet $2.00 to WIN on every Ricardo Barrios mount:

query start:         6/14/2019 10:31:19 AM
query end:           6/14/2019 10:31:20 AM
elapsed time:        1 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE TRACK='MNR' 
      AND RIDER='BARRIOS RICARDO' 
      AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2019# 
      AND [DATE] <= #06-13-2019# 
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals       69.40        118.00         65.20
Bet               -156.00       -156.00       -156.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                -86.60        -38.00        -90.80

Wins                    6            18            16
Plays                  78            78            78
PCT                 .0769         .2308         .2051

ROI                0.4449        0.7564        0.4179
Avg Mut             11.57          6.56          4.07

Fyi, the stats in the show column are a bit off because of small field sizes (the algorithm that generates the stats incorrectly assumes that show wagering was offered on every race.)

It might be easy to look at the above table - and decide the next time you look at MNR pps you're going to draw a big X through every one of the horses he's on because he's a 7% rider...

And who's to say you'd be wrong?

But if I look at his trend line in the DB I see this:

By: Calendar Timeline Analysis (Each Row 7 Days)

  >=Min        < Max        P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins  Mounts     Pct   Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0.0000       7.0000       3.80      30.00     1.1267       3      15   .2000   2.6000
 7.0000      14.0000      -1.20      26.00     0.9538       2      13   .1538   2.0000
14.0000      21.0000     -22.00      22.00     0.0000       0      11   .0000   0.0000
21.0000      28.0000     -16.00      16.00     0.0000       0       8   .0000   0.0000
28.0000      35.0000      -9.20      20.00     0.5400       1      10   .1000   1.3000
35.0000      42.0000     -28.00      28.00     0.0000       0      14   .0000   0.0000
42.0000      49.0000     -14.00      14.00     0.0000       0       7   .0000   0.0000
49.0000      56.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
56.0000      63.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000

5 for 28 or 0.1786 over the past 2 weeks.

More often than not stats like that are telling you that a rider (or a trainer) has been on a hot streak but will (shortly) regress to his own mean.

But every once in a while it turns out stats like that really are telling you that a rider (or a trainer) is undergoing a break out.

Imo, stuff like that is a part of why we play this game.

In any event (because I looked at the trend line) the guy will be on my watch list for the next several MNR cards.



-jp

.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Imo, the stats often have a way of speaking for themselves.





In any event (because I looked at the trend line) the guy will be on my watch list for the next several MNR cards.



-jp

.

Tx for the info, sir. But I did not opine on air about the guy's proficiency. I merely stated that his seat and motion on a horse are not stylish. And this only AFTER praising him as an aggressive jock who rides hard the entire trip, does not spare the whip, and gives his clients an all-out effort every time.

And if that's not more platitudes than Ricardo Barios has EVER received from ANY talking head, I will donate this year's entire salary to PETA. In truth, he should plant a wet one on me.

Sadly, though, lots of race-trackers with a dog in the fight watch televised commentary with an attitude best described by that classic line from Simon and Garfunkel's The Boxer : "All lies and jests until a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."

And while many WANT to hear edgy and truthful commentary, they also want it BOTH ways by killing the messenger.

As far as Barios embarking on a hot streak, I would proceed with caution, Jeff. Two of his three wins that night were for a somewhat obscure trainer of decent skills, but limited resources. And with most of Mountaineer's live barns faithfully committed to deeply entrenched agents and riders, a breakout card for a far-from-connected jock like Barios almost NEVER opens up new business of note. In fact, the system is more likely to close ranks against him.

Barios' agent, Lori Dinoto, a steward at Mahoning from Oct thru Apr, is a friend of mine and has several times lamented to me just how impossible it is to pry live mounts away from the established hustlers. Don't get me wrong, I trained Lori as an official and am extremely proud of her fast ascension in Ohio, but she is hardly equipped in her first foray as an agent to compete with the likes of Billy Johnson, John Costanzo, and Jeff Perrin.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mountainman

You need thick skin to you do my job correctly. And most whining is simply a sign that you're doing it right. But sometimes your only recourse is to laugh and shake your head.

Evidently somebody in the Ricardo Barios camp wants pistols at 10-paces after my characterization of the then 3 for 63 rider's breakout night (Tuesday) as the product not only of hard, aggressive sending, but also the good fortune of having the turf events belatedly switched to dirt.

And they considered it EXTREMELY unfair for me to describe him as a very hard tryer who gives clients their money's worth every time-but will never be mistaken for stylish on a thoroughbred horse.

So ya wana be an analyst on tv??? Welcome to my world. It looks ohhhhhhh so easy until you step into the crucible and realize the cost not only of candor, but of simply doing the job.

I'm paid for objective analysis. Not to issue platitudes or cultivate friends. And I'm a big boy who made my peace with that long ago.

Without putting yourself out on a limb, Mark...could you imagine a circumstance under which the track handicapper might be "coerced" by the higher-ups to tone down the "objective analysis"...and to toe the company line, so to speak?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Without putting yourself out on a limb, Mark...could you imagine a circumstance under which the track handicapper might be "coerced" by the higher-ups to tone down the "objective analysis"...and to toe the company line, so to speak?

Mountaineer is a "cult" track....Mark's banter is a perfect fit, they love him there.

[bob60566]

Keep up the good work Mark and i do enjoy your insights, Although some nights i wonder where my insights are.
Long time Mountineer fan.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Without putting yourself out on a limb, Mark...could you imagine a circumstance under which the track handicapper might be "coerced" by the higher-ups to tone down the "objective analysis"...and to toe the company line, so to speak?

Gus, I've been blessed in that regard. Management has always valued my services and understood what I do. And I hope at this stage I've amassed some cred and that my rep, perhaps, precedes me.

I really can't speak for other analysts, because I've never found them to be very "collegial" and have interacted with few of my peers. I don't think many engage in my form of brinkmanship, but individual forms of candor does, of course, characterize the commentary of some elite analysts, such as Serling, or Brad Thomas.

But you CAN bet they get bitched about. It just goes with the territory.

Much respect, my good friend.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Without putting yourself out on a limb, Mark...could you imagine a circumstance under which the track handicapper might be "coerced" by the higher-ups to tone down the "objective analysis"...and to toe the company line, so to speak?

Upon further reflection...I do recall an incident that involved my calling a "super trainer" out for incurring a bad test. The guy actually hired a lawyer who called Rosemary and demanded I apologize on the air. She did contemplate having me render said apology ( which I would have done to preserve my job), but finally said "@#%# 'em. Let them sue!!"

And I was once told to quit saying "The circus is in town" when we carded WV bred races. But that was long ago and before the program made reasonable strides.

I was also dressed down once for employing the code word "Iditarod" to characterize exceptionally bad fields.

And I have, of course, had numerous jocks complain about my commentary. One in particular stands out for having demanded "satisfaction." (A sobering prospect, indeed, since I am sadly untutored in the art of fencing.) But management has NEVER sided with a single jock or trainer who beefed about me.

And another thing I have never, ever, been rebuked for is frankly stating, when appropriate, that I would NOT bet the race at hand with real money. Management well understands the long range value of on-air credibility.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Mountaineer is a "cult" track....Mark's banter is a perfect fit, they love him there.

Greatly enjoy Mark's banter. I'm guilty of tuning in, listening to Mark break down a race, informed betting along with the narrative, and then hanging around to wager more races than I had planned.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Upon further reflection...I do recall an incident that involved my calling a "super trainer" out for incurring a bad test. The guy actually hired a lawyer who called Rosemary and demanded I apologize on the air. She did contemplate having me render said apology ( which I would have done to preserve my job), but finally said "@#%# 'em. Let them sue!!"

And I was once told to quit saying "The circus is in town" when we carded WV bred races. But that was long ago and before the program made reasonable strides.

I was also dressed down once for employing the code word "Iditarod" to characterize exceptionally bad fields.

And I have, of course, had numerous jocks complain about my commentary. One in particular stands out for having demanded "satisfaction." (A sobering prospect, indeed, since I am sadly untutored in the art of fencing.) But management has NEVER sided with a single jock or trainer who beefed about me.

And another thing I have never, ever, been rebuked for is frankly stating, when appropriate, that I would NOT bet the race at hand with real money. Management well understands the long range value of on-air credibility.

I much appreciate the breadth of your reply, Mark...and I am glad that the Mountaineer management appreciates the value of your candor as a track handicapper. In the various TVG threads that invariably appear here...it always amazes me when the opinion is voiced that a handicapping host should never express dissatisfaction with the betting value being offered by a particular race...for fear that this would somehow undermine the real job that the host is paid to do. IMO...whatever short-term gain a betting institution may attain from having its host recommend wagers for every single race PALES when compared to the long-term harm that such an irresponsible act inevitably brings forth. The game is hard enough even without the irresponsible touting that we see from some of our racing institutions.

Thanks again for taking the time to reply at such length...and please be assured that my respect for you outweighs whatever respect you might have for me.

[Saratoga_Mike]

As part of package deal, Century Casinos announced plans to acquire Mountaineer from Eldorado this morning. I'd guess it doesn't mean too much for the racing product, but not entirely sure.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

As part of package deal, Century Casinos announced plans to acquire Mountaineer from Eldorado this morning. I'd guess it doesn't mean too much for the racing product, but not entirely sure.

Deal kicks in next year. Much uncertainty in the ranks here. Reading each player's intent not so easy. Looks complicated beyond my meager grasp of such affairs.