Santa Anita Morning Line

[jballscalls]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Either he has no clue OR he's "bought and paid for" by management who is telling him to lie to the public.

do you believe this stuff when you type it? Or am i missing the sarcasm?

[Turfday]

1) Spud Spivens 20/1

2) Appealing Tale 5/2

3) For Cash 20/1

4) Cat Burglar 7/2

5) Fury Capcori 7/5

6) Get Happy Mister 12/1

7) Clubhouse Ride 3/1

California win takeout is about 16% (slightly less). Breakage...7%-8% (about 1% per horse). Line should balance at 124% / 125% MAX.

This one balances to 139%. . . . .essentially, there is "another horse" in the race . . . . .a 6/1 shot who does not exist ! !

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I have written at length about Jon White's poor math for putting together a morning line at SA. I'm not going to go over it once again, but I will say this -
I have reached the conclusion that it may be a conscious effort to increase handle.
When 60-70% of the horses you list go off at higher odds at post time, perhaps the betting public think they are actually getting good value when the M/L odds were much lower on their selection?

Or, most likely, he just doesn't have a clue about odds percentages.

Looks like he's having trouble with the whole job description.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

do you believe this stuff when you type it? Or am i missing the sarcasm?

Why would you read sarcasm into it? Either he doesnt know how to make a morning line OR he does know how to make a morning line that's incorrect for one reason or another.

Doesn't it have to be one of those 2 options?

[horses4courses]

1 FRIENDSWITH K MILL Tyler Baze Doug O'Neill 118 - 8/5 9/5
2 RUM POINT Elvis Trujillo Doug O'Neill 118 - 4/1 9/2
3 LOLO EL CANONERO Edwin Maldonado Peter Miller Off 118 - 9/2 5
4 ARKENSTONE Joseph Talamo Dan Hendricks 120 - 5/2 3
5 PAPA TURF Corey Nakatani James Kasparoff 118 - 3/1 5/2

Here's a good example of what is wrong with Jon White's math.
The odds listed on the right have the M/L,
then the current odds furthest to the right.

The odds were listed at about 15 minutes to post.
Looks like he is pretty close in his assessment. He is.

The odds on the bottom 2 horses are a wash.
The remaining 3, however, are all higher odds than his line.

How much of a difference percentage wise?
Over 7%.

I just don't understand why he does this virtually every race....

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Here's a good example of what is wrong with Jon White's math.
The odds listed on the right have the M/L,
then the current odds furthest to the right.

The odds were listed at about 15 minutes to post.
Looks like he is pretty close in his assessment. He is.

The odds on the bottom 2 horses are a wash.
The remaining 3, however, are all higher odds than his line.

How much of a difference percentage wise?
Over 7%.

I just don't understand why he does this virtually every race....

You lost me. What should his morning line have been?

I hate the guys ML's at SA but not sure what was wrong in this case.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Valento

You lost me. What should his morning line have been?

I hate the guys ML's at SA but not sure what was wrong in this case.

He routinely sets the M/L with odds that are too short.
It mystifies me as to why he does, but the M/L is regularly set 10% too high.

[Track Phantom]

Does anyone think Habibi will go off at 3-1 or the 3rd/4th choice (out of 6) in the 4th race on Thursday?

Of course not....but Jon White does. Unbelievable.

The public will make this horse 8-5 or lower, even if it is a prep for later.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Valento

Does anyone think Habibi will go off at 3-1 or the 3rd/4th choice (out of 6) in the 4th race on Thursday?

Of course not....but Jon White does. Unbelievable.

The public will make this horse 8-5 or lower, even if it is a prep for later.

That's because he sets the line based on his handicapping instead of what he feels the public will play. We've beat this one to death, but it's so maddening that you can't shake it.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

That's because he sets the line based on his handicapping instead of what he feels the public will play. We've beat this one to death, but it's so maddening that you can't shake it.

Habibi will be 8-5. Mark my words. I know it. You know it. Everyone knows it but Jon White thinks 3-1 is about right. How odd.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Valento

Habibi will be 8-5. Mark my words. I know it. You know it. Everyone knows it but Jon White thinks 3-1 is about right. How odd.

https://twitter.com/HRTVJon

[dasch]

Originally Posted by Valento

Habibi will be 8-5. Mark my words. I know it. You know it. Everyone knows it but Jon White thinks 3-1 is about right. How odd.

Dan Blacker is 0-7 with his USA imports lifetime. In fact the best he has managed is 2 3rds in those 7 starts. Granted this is the nicest import he has had but that stat alone will add to her price.

Its also public knowledge she fractured a hind ankle in her last start and then most of her was sold. She was with(?) or supposed to be with high profile trainer Graham Motion and now she is with a trainer almost nobody knows. All negatives IMO and we have no idea if she is even close to the same horse as before.

Even taking all of this into consideration I do feel 3-1 is a little high but not much, 5-2 2nd choice would be the right line IMO.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by dasch

Dan Blacker is 0-7 with his USA imports lifetime. In fact the best he has managed is 2 3rds in those 7 starts. Granted this is the nicest import he has had but that stat alone will add to her price.

Its also public knowledge she fractured a hind ankle in her last start and then most of her was sold. She was with(?) or supposed to be with high profile trainer Graham Motion and now she is with a trainer almost nobody knows. All negatives IMO and we have no idea if she is even close to the same horse as before.

Even taking all of this into consideration I do feel 3-1 is a little high but not much, 5-2 2nd choice would be the right line IMO.

Blacker has not had a Strawbridge import that cost a "life changing" amount when sold privately. It's not what you and I think are fair, it is how will the public play her. The public will bet her heavily. She might end up at 2-1 TOPS. The morning line guy having her at 3-1 is basically saying everyone betting at SA is in the know that she may not run because of her injury. Silly.

[dasch]

Originally Posted by Valento

Blacker has not had a Strawbridge import that cost a "life changing" amount when sold privately. It's not what you and I think are fair, it is how will the public play her. The public will bet her heavily. She might end up at 2-1 TOPS. The morning line guy having her at 3-1 is basically saying everyone betting at SA is in the know that she may not run because of her injury. Silly.

You obviously have a strong opinion of her but many others are skeptical, myself included. The horse who was made the morning line favorite is also IMO the horse to beat. Will I include Habibi? Of course, but I will not be surprised at all if she finishes a good 3rd or 4th.

Even the "closer look" comments in the DRF state "she might be good enough to win this, were just going to watch and see how she comes back though"

[ultracapper]

Valento's right. White knows all this stuff, and has handicapped it in. He basically gives us HIS ML instead of what the public would be expected to do. He has always done it this way as far as I can see. His job is to come as close to the final odds as possible, not to give us his opinion. Drives me CRAZY!!!! Because there have been times when his opinion has been DEAD WRONG, and he's made many a ML on that. I've seen his ML fav go to 4th or 5th in the betting, AND HE KNEW IT WOULD. Even said it during the paddock commentary. Man, I wish I could remember the race a couple years ago when he made, I believe a Koriner trained horse, 20-1 ML because he did not like it's last race. First flip of the board, 3-1. Goes off at about 6 if I remember and just airmails. Wins by 5 or some such nonsense.