Even Money MLF Maidens @AQU @Dirt -- 6 yrs of positive win returns!!! - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

TheOracle · 01-30-2019, 07:35 PM

The even money Morning Line Favorites at Aqueduct on the Dirt have had an overall positive return per $2 win wager for the past 6 years!!!

The great years, as I call them, were 2016 and 2017 the even money Morning Line Favorites were almost unstoppable you made 21% on your money per $2 win wager during that stretch on the Dirt!!!

The down side is that you would have needed the patience to make roughly 3 bets per year for that 9 month period!!!

Let's watch the even money Morning Line Favorites in Maiden races at Aqueduct for the rest of the season!!!

TheOracle · 01-30-2019, 10:04 PM

Interesting to note, that the Maiden Special Weight races for even money MLFs have been giving an overall positive return of 10% per $2 win wager for the past 6 years not too shabby for a bunch of Favorites!!!

On the flip side, the Maiden Claiming races for even money MLFs have been breaking even overall per $2 win wager for the past 6 years. Just a $0.90 return for more than half a decade!!!

I have started looking at them coming off a loss in which case they have gone 0 for their last 4 starts in this situation!!!

Let's keep a sharp eye on even money Morning Line Favorites that are Maiden Claimers on the Dirt for the remainder of the season!!!

TheOracle · 01-31-2019, 10:19 PM

There's an even money Morning Line Favorite in a Maiden Claiming race tomorrow at Aqueduct in the 3rd race!!!

Race 3
#6 Bourbon Did It

However, J Servis' barn has been just awful this year he is ice cold and his horses are 0 for their last 8!!!

Let's see if the even money MLF can get him out of his slump if they even race tomorrow it's supposed to be another cold one for Friday!!!

TheOracle · 02-01-2019, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

There's an even money Morning Line Favorite in a Maiden Claiming race tomorrow at Aqueduct in the 3rd race!!!

Race 3
#6 Bourbon Did It

However, J Servis' barn has been just awful this year he is ice cold and his horses are 0 for their last 8!!!

Let's see if the even money MLF can get him out of his slump if they even race tomorrow it's supposed to be another cold one for Friday!!!

There are 2 Maiden Claiming even money Morning Line Favorites today at Aqueduct

Code:

pick02-01-20191 02-01-2019	3rd race	6	Bourbon Did It (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	J Servis	1/1#	Dirt

Code:

pick02-01-20191 02-01-2019	8th race	6	Ramblin Ma am (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Five And One Half Furlongs	R Handal	1/1#	Dirt

Let’s see if they can get to the winners circle and break the 0 for 4 streak at Aqueduct today!!!

TheOracle · 02-02-2019, 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

There are 2 Maiden Claiming even money Morning Line Favorites today at Aqueduct

Code:

pick02-01-20191 02-01-2019	3rd race	6	Bourbon Did It (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	J Servis	1/1#	Dirt

Code:

pick02-01-20191 02-01-2019	8th race	6	Ramblin Ma am (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Five And One Half Furlongs	R Handal	1/1#	Dirt

Let’s see if they can get to the winners circle and break the 0 for 4 streak at Aqueduct today!!!

The Maiden Claiming even money Morning Line Favorites split a pair today #6 Ramblin Ma am finished 2nd today but the 0 for 4 streak was broken with a win by #6 Bourbon Did It paying $8.20 across the board!!!

Code:

res02-01-20191	02-01-2019	3rd race	6	Bourbon Did It (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	J Servis	1/1#	Dirt Fast	3.5	2.6	2.1
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
res02-01-20192	02-01-2019	8th race	6	Ramblin Ma am (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Five And One Half Furlongs	R Handal	1/1#	Dirt Fast	0.0	2.5	2.2

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle · 02-07-2019, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Interesting to note, that the Maiden Special Weight races for even money MLFs have been giving an overall positive return of 10% per $2 win wager for the past 6 years not too shabby for a bunch of Favorites!!!

On the flip side, the Maiden Claiming races for even money MLFs have been breaking even overall per $2 win wager for the past 6 years. Just a $0.90 return for more than half a decade!!!

I have started looking at them coming off a loss in which case they have gone 0 for their last 4 starts in this situation!!!

Let's keep a sharp eye on even money Morning Line Favorites that are Maiden Claimers on the Dirt for the remainder of the season!!!

There's a less than even money Morning Line Favorite in a Maiden Claiming race at Aqueduct today in the 2nd race!!!

Code:

pick02-07-20191	02-07-2019	2nd race	8	Air On Fire (KY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	J Servis	1/5#	Dirt

J Servis' barn has been doing nothing this year

Interestingly, he also has another even money Morning Line Favorite in a Maiden Special Weight race in the 3rd today!!!

Code:

pick02-07-20191	02-07-2019	3rd race	6	Big Engine (NY)	Maiden Special Weight	Seven Furlongs	J Servis	1/1#	Dirt

Let's see if his heavy Favorites can get him off the slide today at the Big A!!!

castaway01 · 02-07-2019, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

T
J Servis' barn has been doing nothing this year

Let's see if his heavy Favorites can get him off the slide today at the Big A!!!

He's winning at 32% this meet.

TheOracle · 02-07-2019, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by castaway01

He's winning at 32% this meet.

Equibase says 20% this meet

Matches exactly what I have at Aqueduct

Quote:

Originally Posted by castaway01

He's winning at 32% this meet.

Where are you getting 32% wins?

TheOracle · 02-07-2019, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by castaway01

He's winning at 32% this meet.

Do some fact checking before you post

Dave Schwartz · 02-07-2019, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Interesting to note, that the Maiden Special Weight races for even money MLFs have been giving an overall positive return of 10% per $2 win wager for the past 6 years not too shabby for a bunch of Favorites!!!

Do you mean exactly 1/1 or 1/1 and below?

Are you making any adjustment for scratches?

This is what I show, but includes normalized adjustments for scratched horses.

Code:

AQU.
376-MLWIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV 
2/5                 5      3   60.0  $1.42   4.49   0.86 
1/2                 2           0.0  $0.00   0.00   0.00 
3/5                11      6   54.5  $1.60   3.31   0.85 
4/5                28     15   53.6  $1.68   3.24   0.91 
1                  34     23   67.6  $2.32   4.19   1.24 

Total              80     47   58.8  $1.88   3.65   1.09

TheOracle · 02-07-2019, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Do you mean exactly 1/1 or 1/1 and below?

Are you making any adjustment for scratches?

This is what I show, but includes normalized adjustments for scratched horses.

Code:

AQU.
376-MLWIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV 
2/5                 5      3   60.0  $1.42   4.49   0.86 
1/2                 2           0.0  $0.00   0.00   0.00 
3/5                11      6   54.5  $1.60   3.31   0.85 
4/5                28     15   53.6  $1.68   3.24   0.91 
1                  34     23   67.6  $2.32   4.19   1.24 

Total              80     47   58.8  $1.88   3.65   1.09

Hey Dave

I meant odds that were of the form (1-1, 1-2,,,,,1-9)

TheOracle · 02-07-2019, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

There's a less than even money Morning Line Favorite in a Maiden Claiming race at Aqueduct today in the 2nd race!!!

Code:

pick02-07-20191	02-07-2019	2nd race	8	Air On Fire (KY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	J Servis	1/5#	Dirt

J Servis' barn has been doing nothing this year

Interestingly, he also has another even money Morning Line Favorite in a Maiden Special Weight race in the 3rd today!!!

Code:

pick02-07-20191	02-07-2019	3rd race	6	Big Engine (NY)	Maiden Special Weight	Seven Furlongs	J Servis	1/1#	Dirt

Let's see if his heavy Favorites can get him off the slide today at the Big A!!!

Servis' heavy Favorites got him of the slide prior to today he was 2 for his last 12

However he did come through with both #8 Air On Fire and #6 Big Engine they combined for a payout of $13.40 across the board!!!

Code:

res02-07-20191	02-07-2019	2nd race	8	Air On Fire (KY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	J Servis	1/5#	Dirt Muddy	2.1	2.1	2.1
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
res02-07-20192	02-07-2019	3rd race	6	Big Engine (NY)	Maiden Special Weight	Seven Furlongs	J Servis	1/1#	Dirt Muddy	2.8	2.2	2.1

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle · 02-08-2019, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Interesting to note, that the Maiden Special Weight races for even money MLFs have been giving an overall positive return of 10% per $2 win wager for the past 6 years not too shabby for a bunch of Favorites!!!

On the flip side, the Maiden Claiming races for even money MLFs have been breaking even overall per $2 win wager for the past 6 years. Just a $0.90 return for more than half a decade!!!

I have started looking at them coming off a loss in which case they have gone 0 for their last 4 starts in this situation!!!

Let's keep a sharp eye on even money Morning Line Favorites that are Maiden Claimers on the Dirt for the remainder of the season!!!

There’s an even money Maiden Claimer in the 1st race today at Aqueduct!!!

Code:

1	02-08-2019	1st race	1	Rockin Emmzy (KY)	Maiden Claiming	One Mile	L Rice	1/1#	Dirt

Hopefully Rice won’t let us down today!!!

TheOracle · 02-08-2019, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

There’s an even money Maiden Claimer in the 1st race today at Aqueduct!!!

Code:

pick02-08-20191	02-08-2019	1st race	1	Rockin Emmzy (KY)	Maiden Claiming	One Mile	L Rice	1/1#	Dirt

Hopefully Rice won’t let us down today!!!

Not even Rice could let us down today as #1 Rockin Emmzy picked up the win as the chalk in the 1st race today at Aqueduct paying $7.40 across the board

Code:

res02-08-20191	02-08-2019	1st race	1	Rockin Emmzy (KY)	Maiden Claiming	One Mile	L Rice	1/1#	Dirt Sloppy	3.2	2.1	2.1

It was not much of a payout but as I always say take it from them before they take it from you and with Rice you really just never know!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit

TheOracle · 02-10-2019, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Not even Rice could let us down today as #1 Rockin Emmzy picked up the win as the chalk in the 1st race today at Aqueduct paying $7.40 across the board

Code:

res02-08-20191	02-08-2019	1st race	1	Rockin Emmzy (KY)	Maiden Claiming	One Mile	L Rice	1/1#	Dirt Sloppy	3.2	2.1	2.1

It was not much of a payout but as I always say take it from them before they take it from you and with Rice you really just never know!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit

There’s are 2 even money Maiden Claimers in the 3rd and 5th races today at Aqueduct!!!

Code:

pick02-10-20191 02-10-2019	3rd race	2	Kumar (KY)	Maiden Claiming	One Mile	T A Pletcher	1/1#	Dirt

pick02-10-20192	02-10-2019	5th race	2	Ok Honey (NY)	Maiden Claiming	One Mile	T A Hills	1/1#	Dirt

Let’s see if they can get to the winners circle today at Aqueduct as it looks like Favorites will have a tough going today!!!