Timeformus Pace Projector - Glorious Empire

[ccmd00d]

Hi All,

Can anyone explain to me the generally how the Timeformus pace projector would have Glorious Empires so far back in the Fort Lauderdale?

He was on the lead the the first two calls in the BC turf (setting red fractions) and wired the fields the sword dancer and bowling green, yet the pace projector had him midpack and the running style as "tracker" with an early pace of 83 and late pace of 84.

Is it due to the fact that the previous races were much longer distances than the 1 1/8th today?

[cj]

Originally Posted by ccmd00d

Hi All,

Can anyone explain to me the generally how the Timeformus pace projector would have Glorious Empires so far back in the Fort Lauderdale?

He was on the lead the the first two calls in the BC turf (setting red fractions) and wired the fields the sword dancer and bowling green, yet the pace projector had him midpack and the running style as "tracker" with an early pace of 83 and late pace of 84.

Is it due to the fact that the previous races were much longer distances than the 1 1/8th today?

Yes, that is exactly why. It doesn't always work out but history has shown leading at 11 and 12f doesn't really equate to leading at 8 or 9. The only previous race where he led early at less than 11f was in a claimer.

[ccmd00d]

Originally Posted by cj

Yes, that is exactly why. It doesn't always work out but history has shown leading at 11 and 12f doesn't really equate to leading at 8 or 9. The only previous race where he led early at less than 11f was in a claimer.

Thank you

[cj]

Originally Posted by ccmd00d

Thank you

Any time, always happy to help. Turf races are toughest on the pace projector, and the longer they get the harder still.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by cj

The only previous race where he led early at less than 11f was in a claimer.

Edgar Prado then and now. 2 for 2. $11.60 and $17.00

I ignored him.

0
102
75
49
95
58

His Beyers on soft turf. The horse was a guess.

[jay68802]

He was the only E8 in the field. But with 5 other E/P types looked like he would have company from the start. But when nobody goes with him....

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by jay68802

He was the only E8 in the field. But with 5 other E/P types looked like he would have company from the start. But when nobody goes with him....

The horse was an over-bet underlay at 7-1.....Go figure how that happened in a field that size.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

The horse was an over-bet underlay at 7-1.....Go figure how that happened in a field that size.

I will start figuring that out soon, so hold your breath till I get it figured out.

Got semi lucky in that I played the (with the and ) and the place money saved me. Made a whole $6.00.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

Yes, that is exactly why. It doesn't always work out but history has shown leading at 11 and 12f doesn't really equate to leading at 8 or 9. The only previous race where he led early at less than 11f was in a claimer.

The pace projector is great.....not because it is even close to always right, but because it forces you to think about the race more, and ask yourself if you disagree with it and why. Anyone expecting it to be anywhere close to infallible is missing out on its value.

As an aside for this race, I don't think it does a great job of taking into account how valuable post position can be in two turn races where they hit the turn relatively quickly, especially in bigger fields. But, once again, that ties into my first paragraph.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by cj

Any time, always happy to help. Turf races are toughest on the pace projector, and the longer they get the harder still.

1. Does the pace projector plot the TimeformUS EARLY numbers found in the DRF for each horse in current race or is it something different.

2. Is the EARLY TFUS number for 1st quarter in sprints, then first half-mile in routes...?

3. Is the pace projector plot a good example of “projected race shape”...thank you.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

The pace projector is great.....not because it is even close to always right, but because it forces you to think about the race more, and ask yourself if you disagree with it and why. Anyone expecting it to be anywhere close to infallible is missing out on its value.

As an aside for this race, I don't think it does a great job of taking into account how valuable post position can be in two turn races where they hit the turn relatively quickly, especially in bigger fields. But, once again, that ties into my first paragraph.

I agree with this.

I developed a similar pace projection tool and run into similar issues.

It goes beyond just accounting for how quickly the turn comes up and whether certain horses will be able to clear in time or drop off because the turn came up. You can code for that in a general way with adjustments for each distance at each track based on what the data says typically happens from each post position.

The bigger problem is decision making. Riders will choose to use more or less of the horse's natural speed depending on their post position, who else is in the race, where they are positioned etc.. They are handicapping the race (or the connections are) and making adjustments. There are way too many combinations to get specific.

I often look at my own report and know it's wrong. Maybe the #1 horse looks unlikely to get the lead based on running style and pace figures, but I KNOW he has "some" speed and they are very likely to gun and use it from the rail rather than get buried. I've resolved that part of the analysis has to be subjective. But a quick glance at the Pace Projector or similar tool gets you a long way at a glance.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by the little guy

The pace projector is great.....not because it is even close to always right, but because it forces you to think about the race more, and ask yourself if you disagree with it and why. Anyone expecting it to be anywhere close to infallible is missing out on its value.

As an aside for this race, I don't think it does a great job of taking into account how valuable post position can be in two turn races where they hit the turn relatively quickly, especially in bigger fields. But, once again, that ties into my first paragraph.

I remember as a 10 year old kid in '89 watching Edgar, Kent, Luzzi and co...

Anyway, you make a good point about the Ft Lauderdale.

Prado had the horse, but he did a nice job of coming off the rail with the only threat to his outside, effectively forcing Saez/Hi Happy into the lesser of two evils. Rail was out 96 feet as well. Basically did the same thing on the 2nd turn.

I singled the #10 Divisidero on a small pick-3.

No one I really love out of that race. 10 ran OK. That 'Qurbaan' is a nice animal (looked good in the flesh, didn't have a chance to do much running, but didn't flash much at the very end when he should have been full of run). Shug's horse ran fine, even with the rail-aided trip. Mostly formful with some of the wide runners, but they could come back at better prices(9?)...

[cj]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

1. Does the pace projector plot the TimeformUS EARLY numbers found in the DRF for each horse in current race or is it something different.

2. Is the EARLY TFUS number for 1st quarter in sprints, then first half-mile in routes...?

3. Is the pace projector plot a good example of “projected race shape”...thank you.

1) Mostly it is this, though there are some small adjustments for blinker changes and for second time starters.

2) Yes, exactly.

3) The race shape part would be the flag (or lack of). We show either "Fast Pace", "Favors Horses On/Near the Early Lead", or nothing.

[cj]

Originally Posted by the little guy

The pace projector is great.....not because it is even close to always right, but because it forces you to think about the race more, and ask yourself if you disagree with it and why. Anyone expecting it to be anywhere close to infallible is missing out on its value.

As an aside for this race, I don't think it does a great job of taking into account how valuable post position can be in two turn races where they hit the turn relatively quickly, especially in bigger fields. But, once again, that ties into my first paragraph.

Well said. Hell, I don't agree with the Pace Projector myself many times. But what you can't do is overreact and try to get every horse right. It is impossible. You are using it exactly as it is intended.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by cj

1) Mostly it is this, though there are some small adjustments for blinker changes and for second time starters.

2) Yes, exactly.

3) The race shape part would be the flag (or lack of). We show either "Fast Pace", "Favors Horses On/Near the Early Lead", or nothing.

Thank you CJ for your replies.

With regard to Glorious Empire, the gelding showed an 83 for TFUS Early in the DRF on Sat Dec 15 edition. His race 2 back in the Sword Dancer was a career top performance with a Beyer of 106.

Do you have access to what his TFUS Early number was prior to running in the Sword Dancer...?

I was under the impression that the Early numbers were based on a number of factors but that most if not all of his prior pace numbers were synthesized to arrive at his latest Early number of 83. If is this is the case, shouldn’t his Early number been higher...?

As it was presented, the 83 seems to demonstrate a preponderance of weighting given to the runners’ last race, which was slow pace-wise.

Also, does the Early TFUS in 1.5 mile turf events extend to 3/4 of a mile call, or is it at the 1/2 mile point like in other shorter routes...?