Horse Weights

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

That's why this is a great exercise. RP is the only track in the US (I think) where we know the actual pre-race weights.

I've seen them posted on track live at SA and GP, although I don't know when the horses were weighed.

But yes, I agree the exercise would be interesting: accuracy of weights via scale vs. weights via estimation using PPs from a variable time of layoff.

I do agree that a horse's weight loss/gain (over the course of a race...or a layoff..or over a span of several races) could be an indicator of lots of important things to the player.

[Cratos]

This calculation was conducted using exclusively DRF data for Remington Park; typically the input data is cross-referenced with data from Equibase, DRF, Trakus, and either NYRA, SA, DMR, Churchill Downs, Keenland, or Gulfstream because those are the tracks where we wager.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by Cratos

This calculation was conducted using exclusively DRF data for Remington Park; typically the input data is cross-referenced with data from Equibase, DRF, Trakus, and either NYRA, SA, DMR, Churchill Downs, Keenland, or Gulfstream because those are the tracks where we wager.

Is this his weight before or after the 9/19 race?

F=0.7542?

[Cratos]

Because we don't track Remington Park, the only info we have is post-race DRF info.

At Saratoga, many of the horses who raced there during the just concluded meet were from or have raced at tracks in our database.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Because we don't track Remington Park, the only info we have is post-race DRF info.

At Saratoga, many of the horses who raced there during the just concluded meet were from or have raced at tracks in our database.

We can back into "f" from what you posted, but I still don't understand how you calculated it (in the absence of mass). Could you post your math on that?

Also, could someone post this horse's actual pre-race weight (as measured by the RP scale)? I don't see the information on the RP website.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

That's why this is a great exercise. RP is the only track in the US (I think) where we know the actual pre-race weights.

Since they are weighed pre-race they will be appreciably lighter than they are if they race at a track where they are weighed before receiving Lasix.

[Cratos]

I gave the classical Newtonian understanding of force, but to have a good representation of the force(s) (SEE BELOW) for the horse during the race you should evaluate the Normal Force. Drag Force, Wind Force, Frictional Force, Applied Force and g-force; then sum them for their impact net force value based on the reference area, the air resistance, and the kinematic viscosity. This is a very tedious by hand calculation and at the end you will still need the predictive result for wagering which is even more difficult because both the power and energy curves are exponential. We do everything with our model which we built and have tweaked for several years.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by Cratos

I gave the classical Newtonian understanding of force, but to have a good representation of the force(s) (SEE BELOW) for the horse during the race you should evaluate the Normal Force. Drag Force, Wind Force, Frictional Force, Applied Force and g-force; then sum them for their impact net force value based on the reference area, the air resistance, and the kinematic viscosity. This is a very tedious by hand calculation and at the end you will still need the predictive result for wagering which is even more difficult because both the power and energy curves are exponential. We do everything with our model which we built and have tweaked for several years.

Cute cartoon.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Because we don't track Remington Park, the only info we have is post-race DRF info.

At Saratoga, many of the horses who raced there during the just concluded meet were from or have raced at tracks in our database.

Still not much of an answer at all, or context.

Are you saying you use the post-race DRF info derived weight for a previous race XXXX days old as your pre-race weight for today's race? Any concerns about data integrity as the layoff gets longer?

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Originally Posted by Cratos

This calculation was conducted using exclusively DRF data for Remington Park; typically the input data is cross-referenced with data from Equibase, DRF, Trakus, and either NYRA, SA, DMR, Churchill Downs, Keenland, or Gulfstream because those are the tracks where we wager.

I have a few questions for you, Cratos, if I may ask?

I am curious how you figured out that Springtime Mojo raced approximately 5,386 feet? Is this measurement based on the measurements of the track via Google Earth plus the run-up distance?

I presume the terminal velocity is the equivalent of Sartin Methodology's "1FR" for the distance, correct? How did you come up with the initial velocity figure? I can see that the horse hit his peak FPS rate when he came upon the 4F mark, but it does not seem as large of a number like your's.

Thank you for your time, Cratos. Much appreciated.

[Cratos]

In all due respect, I have gone beyond answering the original task put to me by the poster, "Saratoga Mike" and you can make any assumptions you like to further your expertise, but I am not going any further.

[Cratos]

In physics if you calculate the acceleration (how an object changes it velocity) and the initial and terminal velocities you have those two variables constrained by time and distance; since time was given it was easy to allow the coefficient of correlation to be a measure of the relationship between time and distance which is displacement which is a vector as velocity is a vector.

Terminal velocity in physics is when there isn’t any change in acceleration; I have never used the Sartin Methodology at all.

However, I realize you didn’t ask about “run-up”, but initial velocity dovetails into that subject because with run-up the horse’s initial velocity is at the starting line because the horses start the race with a running start.

If there is not any run-up the starting line is the front of the starting gate and there is not any initial velocity because the horses would be starting from a standing start.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Based on historical records, I make that 8 to 5 against that ever happening.

Generous odds.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by Cratos

In all due respect, I have gone beyond answering the original task put to me by the poster, "Saratoga Mike" .

His task was obfuscation and deflection?

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Cratos

In all due respect, I have gone beyond answering the original task put to me by the poster, "Saratoga Mike" and you can make any assumptions you like to further your expertise, but I am not going any further.

Mr. Cratos, with all due respect, you proposed a spreadsheet to calculate a horse's weight pre-race, not after the race. The importance to some handicappers is, if Classic Empire has suddenly lost 200 lbs(90 kg.) from his race before the Ky. Derby, then some handicappers might want to consider then betting on Always Dreaming who's gained 60 kg.