Favorites in the derby 5 straight years... 6?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Anyone know if the favorite has ever won 6 years in a row?



Let me preface this by saying it may be a stupid take, and im just throwing it out there for food for thought but do you think social media and the easy exchange of information has led to the 5 favorites getting bet down? Maybe a little?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Anyone know if the favorite has ever won 6 years in a row?

I don't know if these were all the true tote board favorites but 1972-1979 was quite chalky with the highest winning odds during that stretch being 3-1 for Bold Forbes. About 35% of the Derby renewals are won by favorites. The 80s, 90s, and 00s were when astute Derby handicappers were spoiled given the favorites in the Winner's Circle were harder to find. Justify is your Derby favorite barring any sort of unfortunate incident that would take him out. He doesn't feel as inevitable as Chrome or AP and seemingly has stiffer competition. Perhaps the streak will be broken this year.

[Andrick]

I think each rendition of the Derby is it's own separate entity and it just so happens the winner of the race has been the favourite for the last 5 years. That's a very small sample size and we see favourites win 5 in a span of 5 races all the time at any race track. We also see favourites go 0 for 5 all the time at different tracks as well.

Justify may be the 6th Derby favourite to win in a row. Or he might not be. But if he does I don't see how the previous 5 years had anything to do with it.

Social media probably does help "smarten" up the pools in the Derby. Whether it be shared information, or simply because it's much easier for the casual bettor to get picks. But it's still the Derby, though. The pools still aren't going to be nearly as sharp as what we see daily at Aqueduct, Gulfstream or wherever else.

[LoneF]

I could have sworn Classic Empire was the favorite last year and Always Dreaming was the second choice .... Damn that was just a year ago. My memory must not be what it used to be lol

I think the 5 in a row is just more coincidence than anything. Orb, Chrome and AP just really figured . Nyquist and Always Dreaming were a little harder to come up with though

[minethatbird08]

4 favorites in a row has happened a couple times. Last year Always Dreaming edged Irish war cry 4.7 to 4.8 for favoritism; so last year broke the record for longest streak. Classic Empire was 6.8 Fwiw. Last years odds according to equibase.

[minethatbird08]

Orb at 5.4 was the most lukewarm favorite ever, if memory serves me. Regardless, to add to what you said the streak has included a couple easy picks (not for me though lol*) and a couple ( orb and Always Dreaming) you could have easily been second choice.

*For the record I try to avoid the favorite in the Derby, I did have Always Dreaming and Orb during the streak.

[Senditin]

I think the public is getting the winner right the last 5 years and this year will be 6 with Justify. It's becoming harder to bet against the public.

[boys at tosconova]

not much you can do. i'm sure at least one of the figure horses will be right there again.

[DGroundhog]

Originally Posted by Senditin

I think the public is getting the winner right the last 5 years and this year will be 6 with Justify. It's becoming harder to bet against the public.

I'm torn between trying to break the 5 in a row streak and trying to hit an EXB with some horses at 10-1 or better (my original strategy from weeks ago) and betting what my eyes are telling me.

Justify and Mendelssohn seem like a cut above the rest - but is it really wise to focus on a horse unraced at 2 and the UAE Derby winner? (I would be using them on top in a SPR ticket).

I might have to split the difference and give both angles a shot.