Estimating Exacta payouts

[Parson]

One of my favorite wagers is a dutch exact wheel or box. But does anyone have any experience estimating prior to the probales being displayed.

Sometime I am forced to bet the 5th race prior to the 4th race even starting. Any ideas on how to estimate from the M/L to build a dutch ticket?

[Onion Monster]

Estimating exacta payout from an old All-Ways newsletter:

$BET X WIN ODDS X (PLACE ODDS +1)

So, let's say you think the horse you want to back on top will go off at around 2 to 1 and the second place horse will be 10 to 1. You will make a straight one dollar bet:

1 X 2 X (10+1)

1 X 2 X 11 = 22

The payoff should be around 22 bucks for a dollar bet. Hope this helps.

[Parson]

that is what I was looking for thanks

[Robert Fischer]

You can develop a 'feel' for the odds, the field-size, and circuit into what I call 'types'.

You start to recognize general 'types' well enough to make a ballpark guess on what it will pay, and how conservative $1 unit you want to start/finish your parlay with...

hey 8 horse field in New York, and i like a the co fav over the fav, i figure it oughta pay somewhere between x and y

But in terms of value, you really want to be selecting races where you have an opinion.

If you can beat a heavy favorite for the win; you're guaranteed good value. A prime opinion.

Sometimes if you can at least beat the consensus 2nd-choice for second, than maybe you've got some action with a secondary opinion.

You see that often enough- the public likes the same horse you like to win, but they are sold on whomever appears in the form to be the next likely win contender, some cheap speed who figures to lose today's dual to your winner, and in the process leave the door open for the third or fourth public choice to take a late 2nd through the stretch. Not a huge score, but at least an opinion is the basis for your action, and should be fair enough for a gamble.

[Gorrex]

What if you could create a Dutch ticket that will go in at X mins to post with proper minimums based on actual odds at that point in time.

It's came up several times for us to do but not sure of it's value. It would be a major change to our condition system, and custom modifer system but would also allow conditional abc tickets (first leg) and conditional rank tickets (once that modifier is live)

[AltonKelsey]

In answer to the ops question


Don't waste your time


Can't be done properly.


And if anyone says it can they are lying.

[Parson]

Jason, that might be an option. I would have brush up on my Fair Odds predictions. Or if the entire dutch bet could be conditioned to have say 5/1 odds or what ever I choose. I use the dutch bet on your platform often. As a matter of fact, as I look at my account I have 42 closed tickets today. Most if not all are dutch exacta bets.

I worked late today and really liked the an exacta in the 3rd at Woodbine. I wasnt sure if I would be home with the traffic in time and I did not want to try and drive and handle the phone to get the bet down so I chose not to make the bet.

As it turned out, I got home with 8 min to post, got the bet down and hit the exacta hit the 4/7 paid 43.60. I had that just few times because of the dutch bet

FYI answered the email do you have any pull for the bonus money being awarded to those who did????? LOL

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Onion Monster

Estimating exacta payout from an old All-Ways newsletter:

$BET X WIN ODDS X (PLACE ODDS +1)

So, let's say you think the horse you want to back on top will go off at around 2 to 1 and the second place horse will be 10 to 1. You will make a straight one dollar bet:

1 X 2 X (10+1)

1 X 2 X 11 = 22

The payoff should be around 22 bucks for a dollar bet. Hope this helps.

Using your same math methodology, if the 10-1 wins and the 2-1 is second, it pays only $30
---->1 x 10 x (2+1)= 30<----Houston Control, we have a problem.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Onion Monster

Estimating exacta payout from an old All-Ways newsletter:

$BET X WIN ODDS X (PLACE ODDS +1)

So, let's say you think the horse you want to back on top will go off at around 2 to 1 and the second place horse will be 10 to 1. You will make a straight one dollar bet:

1 X 2 X (10+1)

1 X 2 X 11 = 22

The payoff should be around 22 bucks for a dollar bet. Hope this helps.

Horrible.

2/1 on top of a 10/1 in a 10 horse field potentially is going to pay a lot different than 2 on top of 10 in a 5 horse field. Not that I have a better way, but I know that field size and where the horses rank odds wise in the field must be taken into account.

[Onion Monster]

It's not my formula, as noted. But it does a fair job, I've found. And it's a hell of a lot better than what the critics on this thread have suggested which is nothing.

Here's from Belmont yesterday (which has a relatively smaller takeout percentage on the wager than average),

Estimated exacta payouts-Real Payout

97.30-127.0
24.60-29.0
5.30-6.40
7.90-10.0
44.10-56.0
18.9-21.20
10.6-11.70
46.6-45.25
23.50-25.75

[formula_2002]

THE PROBABILITY OF "A "HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/ THE RACES TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE .


THE TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE FOR A TRACK WITH A 15% TAKE OUT SUMS TO ABOUT 1.18

THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/1.18

TAG THE WIN HORSES WIN PROBABILITY WITH "A"

TAG THE PLACE HORSE WIN PROBABILITY WITH "B"

EXACTA PROBABILITY PROBABILITY FOR A/B IS:
A X (B/(1-A))

EXAMPLE: A HORSE ODDS =2-1, B HORSE ODDS = 3-1, TRACK TAKE OUT IS 15%


A HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(2+1))/1.18 = .282
B HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(3+1)/1.18 = .212

PROBABILITY FOR THE A/B COMBINATION IS,
.282/(.212/(1-.282)) = .083


THAT EQUATES TO A $1 RETURN OF (1/.083)= 12.04
THE FAIR $1 PAYOUT IS $12.04

[formula_2002]

HERE IS AN EXCEL FILE. JUST ENTER "A" AND "B" ODDS IN THE YELLOW CELLS AND READ THE MIN $1 EXACTA PAYOUT

[Hypnotist1]

FORMULA

CAN YOU PLEASE DO A FAIR VALUE FOR QUINELLAS PLEASE

THANK YOU HYPNOTIST1

[timtam]

I remember several years ago Turf Monthly I think it was put out a calculator

on what exactas should pay. It was a slide rule where you matched up the

first place with 2nd for the ideal payout. They recommended 2 ways to play

1. If the payout was an underlay you hammered it 2. If it was an overlay you

hammered it. The only guy who got hammered was trying to match up the

payouts with the ever changing exacta payouts. At Penn Nat'l one Sunday

afternoon a guy was trying to use it and asked for my help. It was more

like working than having a fun day at the races. He's hammer the underlay

it would lose. Then vice versa. I think he chucked it in the garbage can when

he left. I wish I would have picked it up just for old times sake.

[AltonKelsey]

No need for a slide rule, they just did that to have something tangible to sell you. That's why they are out of business