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Old 04-29-2018, 04:28 PM   #16
thaskalos
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Originally Posted by Franco Santiago View Post
As the one rich guy in 48 Hours said, "Indeed, Mortimer.....inDEEEEEEED".
Was that the guy who was carried out on a stretcher in the end of the movie?
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Old 04-29-2018, 04:40 PM   #17
Poindexter
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Perhaps you should re-read my comment. I said it was nonsense that getting rebates would help assessing a horse's chance of winning. I didn't say it was nonsense that rebates helped bettors win money. Getting rebates doesn't make you smarter or better at assessing probability, it just gives you a better price. If you're good in the assessment area it is a big edge. Is your viewpoint different?
Yes it is. They are using that promised rebate money to invest millions of dollars so that they are able to set up models and the most accurate ways of assessing each horses chance of winning. They will likely use that money to gain more information, which will give them the most accurate lines available. Without it they won't make money. Think about it if you were heading a team betting 100's of millions of dollars a year what would you do. I would have people on my payroll who are experts on horse physicality giving me up to the minute updates on how horses are warming up and how they look in the paddock and how they are acting as they approach the gate. I would find the best track bias guy around and have him giving me track bias information. I would have the best speed figure people around doing speed figures....They already have the sophisticated models and algos to make the last second betting decisions so the more accurate their line the more money they will make. So what exactly do with the money they are making to make their line more accurate, who knows, but logically one can assume they are investing a lot of it to give them the complete picture and yes the most accurate lines around. Where is this money coming from, REBATES.

Do you really think that if Racing announced today that we are lowering takeout to 10% across the board and eliminating rebates to everyone, that these same people would keep investing millions of dollars before they made their first bet. Not a chance. There gravy train would be over and they would have to earn their money like the rest of the betting public (by making a profit). The current whales would still bet plenty and make money, but they will not have the same edge they currently have and more importantly the betting public would not be at the overwhelming disadvantage they are currently at. Imagine that, the sport might actually grow. Nah stupid idea. Stick with the entertainment theme.
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Old 04-29-2018, 04:47 PM   #18
Franco Santiago
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Was that the guy who was carried out on a stretcher in the end of the movie?
I messed up...the movie was Trading Places. It was Mortimer and Randolph Duke...not sure which one was carried out. Great movie, though.
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Old 04-29-2018, 04:50 PM   #19
Franco Santiago
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Are you under the impression that whales only wager to win?

But your point is a good one. That is precisely what I suggested in another thread.

More specifically, get to the wagers and key horses in such a different way that you will be on different horses often enough to have them not slicing into your pie as often.
No, but it was my impression - and I could be wrong - that it was the win pool that the OP was commenting on.
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Old 04-29-2018, 05:28 PM   #20
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Yesterday in Prairie Meadows 8th race the 5 horse was 2-1. By the time they finished the race the odds had changed to 4-1.

Stupid whales.

So what, if the horse was 2-1 while they were loading the gate even if you wanted to bet him at 3-1 or higher, you had no way of knowing he would be 4-1. The only way to capitalize on such is to be so off on your analysis that you would take 2-1 on such a horse(which assumes he has over a 33% chance of winning). Your point is that whales make mistakes, NSS. But if we can't take advantage of their mistakes it does us the bettor no good, unless we are just way off in our analysis.
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Old 04-29-2018, 06:02 PM   #21
AndyC
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Yes it is. They are using that promised rebate money to invest millions of dollars so that they are able to set up models and the most accurate ways of assessing each horses chance of winning. They will likely use that money to gain more information, which will give them the most accurate lines available. Without it they won't make money. Think about it if you were heading a team betting 100's of millions of dollars a year what would you do. I would have people on my payroll who are experts on horse physicality giving me up to the minute updates on how horses are warming up and how they look in the paddock and how they are acting as they approach the gate. I would find the best track bias guy around and have him giving me track bias information. I would have the best speed figure people around doing speed figures....They already have the sophisticated models and algos to make the last second betting decisions so the more accurate their line the more money they will make. So what exactly do with the money they are making to make their line more accurate, who knows, but logically one can assume they are investing a lot of it to give them the complete picture and yes the most accurate lines around. Where is this money coming from, REBATES.

Do you really think that if Racing announced today that we are lowering takeout to 10% across the board and eliminating rebates to everyone, that these same people would keep investing millions of dollars before they made their first bet. Not a chance. There gravy train would be over and they would have to earn their money like the rest of the betting public (by making a profit). The current whales would still bet plenty and make money, but they will not have the same edge they currently have and more importantly the betting public would not be at the overwhelming disadvantage they are currently at. Imagine that, the sport might actually grow. Nah stupid idea. Stick with the entertainment theme.
People have been throwing around millions for many years trying to build the better mousetrap. Even with the promise of rebates there is no guarantee that extra expenditures will create a bigger edge.

What prevents you from forming your own group to take advantage of all of these obvious advantages? I don't think I would keep showing up to a gun fight with a knife when I could go out and buy my own gun.
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Old 04-29-2018, 06:06 PM   #22
DGroundhog
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So what, if the horse was 2-1 while they were loading the gate even if you wanted to bet him at 3-1 or higher, you had no way of knowing he would be 4-1. The only way to capitalize on such is to be so off on your analysis that you would take 2-1 on such a horse(which assumes he has over a 33% chance of winning). Your point is that whales make mistakes, NSS. But if we can't take advantage of their mistakes it does us the bettor no good, unless we are just way off in our analysis.
In this case, the horse was 8-1 in the morning line, but to me that was ridiculously high. After the first click the horse was 3/5 (less than $500 on him to win at that point). The odds slowly climbed to 2-1 by the time they were going in the gate.

Figuring that whales likely were not focusing too much on a horse that was 8-1 in the ML but only 2-1 as the last horse is going in the gate, you could reasonably expect the odds might still creep up as the late money comes in.

Getting 4-1 was a bit better than I expected. Thanks, whales!
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Old 04-29-2018, 06:07 PM   #23
AndyC
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So what, if the horse was 2-1 while they were loading the gate even if you wanted to bet him at 3-1 or higher, you had no way of knowing he would be 4-1. The only way to capitalize on such is to be so off on your analysis that you would take 2-1 on such a horse(which assumes he has over a 33% chance of winning). Your point is that whales make mistakes, NSS. But if we can't take advantage of their mistakes it does us the bettor no good, unless we are just way off in our analysis.
Doesn't a whale bet without knowing what the odds will be? The ability to predict the final odds is a skill that is necessary for tody's parimutuel pools.
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Old 04-29-2018, 06:41 PM   #24
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Doesn't a whale bet without knowing what the odds will be? The ability to predict the final odds is a skill that is necessary for tody's parimutuel pools.
It is part of their skill set.

Racing has two separate problems: Predicting win probabilities and predicting odds.
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Old 04-30-2018, 02:56 AM   #25
DGroundhog
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Doesn't a whale bet without knowing what the odds will be? The ability to predict the final odds is a skill that is necessary for tody's parimutuel pools.
I think that is becoming a part of it - especially if you are generally playing Win pools, and possibly even Exactas since that info is so freely available. I really don't place Win wagers that often. I play Exactas and Superfectas most often.

If you are complaining computer aided wagering paired with advanced methods of analyzing and placing wagers, then you should focus on pools with 4 legs or more (SFCs, PK4s). Because of the way these pools are handled - there is NOBODY gaining an edge based on a calculation of odds vs. win probability (unless, of course, they are just better handicappers than you).

With the changes to the SFC minimum wager to 10 cents - this should become an even more enticing option for players.

Under IRS rules, if you play a straight $2 SFC you get IRSed if the payout is more than $602 (a 300-1 payout). If you play a straight $1 SFC you get IRSed if the payout is more than $601 (a 600-1 payout). If you play a straight 10 cent SFC you get IRSed if the payout is more than $600.10 (a 6000-1 payout). I realize few are playing straight SFCs - but the concept carries over to combo tickets as well.

New IRS rules that combine the total wagers placed on a ticket even more enticing.

The 10 cent SFC is the best wager at the track. If you are playing a straight SFC and you think the payout might be between $600 and $6000 for a $1 or $2 base wager you are an idiot to play a $1 or $2 SFC. Play 10 or 20 10 cent SFCs instead.

10 cent SFC also allows you to play just one dime, or three or 10 or 20.

Players should be demanding 10 cent PK4s and lowering minimums on similar pools greater than 4 legs if they really want a positive change in the industry for the bettor.

NO WHALE can evaluate SFC, PK4 or greater pool payouts. Their advantage is effectively negated - barring their superior knowledge or handicapping ability.

Last edited by DGroundhog; 04-30-2018 at 03:10 AM.
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Old 04-30-2018, 05:58 AM   #26
Andy Asaro
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Nailed it.

If the rebate was gone, they'd make less money because there would be fewer golden opportunities. They'd have to settle for silver or bronze opportunities instead. :-)

Very few players get that some others are just light years faster than they are.

It is not a hopeless situation unless one is unwilling to change because what will work today is not what worked 25 years (if it ever did).
Dave, you and I both know that most of the highly rebated players are playing a totally different game than people playing retail takeout. If people were only rebated on losing wagers what would happen? Or if the max rebate for all tracks was 5% what would happen?

Last edited by Andy Asaro; 04-30-2018 at 06:01 AM.
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Old 04-30-2018, 07:22 AM   #27
TiffaniO
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I don’t understand how so many of you don’t get rebates unless you play with peanuts or don’t even wager at all...

I don’t bet a lot in the scheme of things, however I moved my adw wagering from one site to another a few years ago because they offered me a decent rebate.

Well this last November, a rep from the previous adw called and asked how he could get me to come back to their site. I bluntly stated, “beat the other sites rebate”.

Well, he did... and I receive mostly 12-20% back on my wagers now, depending on the track and wager.

I don’t bet a million dollars a year FYI but I consistently bet a decent amount. Instead of whining about rebates, do some searching around and if you are actually a serious player, I’m sure you can find something. (It helped that I live in a state with no surcharge)
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Old 04-30-2018, 07:28 AM   #28
Andy Asaro
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I don’t understand how so many of you don’t get rebates unless you play with peanuts or don’t even wager at all...

I don’t bet a lot in the scheme of things, however I moved my adw wagering from one site to another a few years ago because they offered me a decent rebate.

Well this last November, a rep from the previous adw called and asked how he could get me to come back to their site. I bluntly stated, “beat the other sites rebate”.

Well, he did... and I receive mostly 12-20% back on my wagers now, depending on the track and wager.

I don’t bet a million dollars a year FYI but I consistently bet a decent amount. Instead of whining about rebates, do some searching around and if you are actually a serious player, I’m sure you can find something. (It helped that I live in a state with no surcharge)
In California there is a retention cap. So for every 20K I wager I only get about $100 bucks.
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Old 04-30-2018, 07:33 AM   #29
TiffaniO
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I’m not being a smarty pants here but it just seems like if you want to continue to play the races, you need to lobby your representatives or move. If you bet $1 million a year and get 12% that is $120,000. Might be worth it.

Just because there are some states that are less kind to us than others, doesn’t mean all have to suffer.
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Old 04-30-2018, 07:35 AM   #30
Andy Asaro
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I’m not being a smarty pants here but it just seems like if you want to continue to play the races, you need to lobby your representatives or move. If you bet $1 million a year and get 12% that is $120,000. Might be worth it.

Just because there are some states that are less kind to us than others, doesn’t mean all have to suffer.
Or racing can lower takeout for everyone and make it a lot more likely the game will grow.
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